nopie
1yr ago
I also have a religion and that's fine. It still think that sometimes spending too much time, money and energy on religious activities can be a waste of human potential.
The rule that you are not allowed to occupy other countries without a good reason.
The rule is enforced by most powerful countries on this planet, namely, NATO countries who supply Ukraine sufficient weapons so that they can fight against Russian occupying forces.
Thanks for the explanation.
I don't think it is Joe Biden though. My priors are that sons don't really want to be controlled by their fathers. But in case he had such a relationship with his father, he would had called him less formally, like “Dad” or similar.
Ray Epps is more interesting. I think the worry about January 6 being a potential coup is overblown. Recently Germany had arrested a bunch of people for plotting a coup and restoring monarchy. The media described them as a group of senile men who had got hold of weapons, i.e., nothing serious and all immediately forgot about it. The same is probably true about January 6 except they were not seniors but younger fantasists and some of them had guns (but everybody has a gun in the US). It should not be paid such an attention. Sadly some people died in the crowds but fatal traffic accidents also happen and it is time to forget about this.
The only difference I can see is that Trump was tweeting something and the irrational hate of Trump has been a feature of the US politics. I am not saying that Trump is a good man but he certainly is not guilty of all the outrageous things he is accused of. Whatever Ray Epps' role was, it doesn't change the fact that it was just a spontaneous crowd gathered in naive beliefs, probably instigated by social media viral messaging.
nopie
1yr ago
The fact that he is a media person disqualifies him already.
He talked rubbish about war in Ukraine. He is not interested in finding truth, just make controversial statements to increase his audience (and income).
What is absurd in the statement that Ukraine successfully pushed away Russian attack to most of their country?
As I said Ukraine might or might not recover Donbas and/or the Crimea but they successfully defended their capital from falling into Russia's hands. Now with the western help their army has only gotten stronger and I expect that they will liberate at least some of the territories currently occupied by Russians.
nopie
1yr ago
Exactly.
Why should I even care about this issue? I was just trying to convey how much would I trust this information based on my priors. I don't think I am biased exactly because I don't care about it. However, this is more interesting that Tucker doesn't move my priors.
If I read something on wikipedia that would move my priors.
-
What does it mean “the Big Guy”?
-
The data is already quite strong about this. It has already been a warning in vaccine information for more than a year. What we don't know, how much of a risk it is. Probably not that great in absolute numbers. However, the benefit from vaccine in young people is also not that great. We don't know if the benefits overweigh the risks.
-
Very likely indeed.
-
Who is Ray Epps?
-
I don't think that China lying about covid matters. Nothing about covid really matters anymore. Most stats are only meant to scare people without true understanding how risks are/were age stratified. It took 3 years for European Medicines agency to finally say that covid risk increases exponentially by age even though we learned it within the first 2 weeks of pandemic.
nopie
1yr ago
Wrong? No, it was that you are likely a troll. That's the downvoting is for, it's intended purpose to show which comments are worse than others.
I mean, this is going into circles. Your write something very unclear based on some references or comparisons that I am not familiar with, I don't understand them. You then say – what comparisons?
Maybe you should reflect on what DuplexFields wrote and try to rewrite it so that it makes sense. I cannot provide reasonings of things that I cannot understand.
nopie
9mo ago
I didn't understand your comparisons either. So, I just emphasized the basic truth.
nopie
9mo ago
You can never predict the future...
And you all are probably better historians than me anyway.
I would say that about 30-35 million people that can be added to the global community that is engaged in improving human society is a big deal. It is not only about advancement of technologies because this can be done also in dictatorships like China but about the fabric of the society that is beneficial for all of us. The society is constantly facing different problems (social networks, lockdowns, lack of democracy etc.) that we need more people to deal with these problems in a positively progressive way instead of heavy-handed manner.
The biggest problem with dictatorship is that it is less effective. Putin started a senseless war that hurt Russia a lot. In Western democracies people can also make wrong choices but it is self correcting and it is better in long term development.
nopie
1yr ago
This is just to show what mistake rationalists made about masks. Some still are trying to claim that “masks work despite the evidence that they don't” whatever that is supposed to mean.
Some may use Bayesian method (my favourite). In my view, Cochrane report strongly decreases the odds. Whatever way you go, the threshold for mask mandates was never reached.
nopie
1yr ago
Exactly this. Don't even try to think seriously about articles that claim that masks work despite evidence that says they don't. It is a big fail for rationalists to even think in this way.
nopie
1yr ago
The usual – that Russian invasion is the US fault for not promising to not expand NATO, that Ukraine is losing the war (it is a stalemate on the front but Ukraine is retaining statehood and even becoming closer to and more integrated with the EU which could be kind of victory).
nopie
1yr ago
I don't know who Tony Bobulinski is and how trustable he is. The fact that Tucker quotes him doesn't add anything. It is just mostly gossip which may be correct or may not. It doesn't update my priors much.
Maybe I am going the way that Taleb calls via negativa. I am careful and exclude things I don't have enough positive information about. That eliminates most of disaster modes (of course, it also makes me to lose some potentially great deals too).
nopie
1yr ago
The chances of Germany attacking the USSR prior to 1941 was very high. The evidence was that Germans thought of themselves as higher race and it was only a question of time when they would attack all other countries, including the USSR.
The strength of the evidence can vary – from very weak to very strong. I wouldn't be able to predict anything without strong evidence. You try to confuse absence of evidence with evidence of absence.
My Bayesian sense says that you are a Russian troll.
The following evidence is present:
-
new account, not much engagement
-
you write very confusing things, do not stay on topic and then demand (yes, you demand) – “please explain this or that”.
-
you support extreme point of view
-
your answers are being regularly downvoted
Any evidence against?
nopie
1yr ago
I am not sure what do you mean by this. Why would I even want to run some code on a supercomputer?
nopie
9mo ago
There was not much of a pie to divide at the start. All countries started being very poor but some countries received new investments and others not.
Specifically in Ukraine oligarhs resisted establishing links with the EU exactly because they feared that new investments will make their wealth to become proportionally much smaller (hence, losing power). If Ukraine had joined the EU despite inefficient privatization, it would have been much more developed today.
On the other hand, the countries that remained economically related to Russia, the risk of western investments was too high and they remained poor.
nopie
1yr ago
No, it is not like bananas at all. Some hospital are ending the policy of requiring masks already.
With the treatment for psoriasis, I meant topical treatment in this case.
nopie
1yr ago
The likelihood of risk from black bean extract may be lower but not entirely zero. The medicine indicated for psoriasis have high chance of benefit, therefore some potential of harm is usually accepted. But if you don't know if the treatment has any effect, then even small harms are unnecessary.
And it is not a right way to think that black bean extract cannot harm because people have used them in food for so long. The mucosal immunity in the gut works differently from the one on the skin, so we cannot exclude that it is can harm the skin. Yesterday, I got a warning from oculist to not recommend chamomile extract for washing eyes because it can cause allergies in some people. Chamomile tea is fine and people have used chamomile extract to clean eyes for long time as well and yet it probably does nothing and can harm.
Psoriasis patient is not the same as a healthy person. We don't know how he/she would react to untested treatment. The fact that it is plant derived means little because many modern medicines are originally derived from plants. Even antibiotics came from moulds.
Masks can harm, in the UK there was a case when doctors misheard each other due to masks distorting speech and overdosed medicine and patient died. If the benefit of masks is not proven, such harms are unacceptable.
Don't use the term normies. It is slightly offensive. Besides most rationalists don't trust cryptocurrencies either.
More options
Context Copy link