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professorgerm

clutching my imitation pearls

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joined 2022 September 12 12:41:49 UTC

				

User ID: 1157

professorgerm

clutching my imitation pearls

3 followers   follows 1 user   joined 2022 September 12 12:41:49 UTC

					

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User ID: 1157

Sadly not as far as I can tell. I share the intuition most are one and done, two's borderline, and 3+ is definitely a category worth knowing more about.

When looking for the data I came across this anecdote, published in Andrew Sullivan's Daily Dish back in 2009

Twenty-seven years ago I went to the ER after having suffered my fourth miscarriage. After genetic screening, my husband had previously been diagnosed with a chromosal defect which would result in the spontaneous abortion of about 50% of our conceptions (actually, more like 66). It's called a balanced reciprocal translocation, and the anomaly is so severe that the fetus dies within about 12 weeks of conception. We managed to eventually have a son and daughter, but both are carriers who will in turn someday face the same daunting experiences we endured.

Anyway, back to the ER. As I was registering to get my D and C [dilatation and curettage], a woman barged in the front door demanding an abortion immediately. The attendant told her she would have to wait her turn, to which she responded that she'd already had six abortions and it was no big deal, couldn't they just rush her case a little since she had several more appointments to keep that day.

What a contrast we presented. One woman who was devastated by the loss of four babies countered by a woman who could so blithely give up one after another. My daughter is getting married this summer and, as I said before, she is a carrier. They will have to undergo genetic testing to confirm what we already know, and that is she will most likely have to endure the heartbreak of numerous miscarriages.

27 years before, which would've been 1992. I would be fascinated to know more about the demographics.

We don't say "you assumed this risk by deciding to live in a place full of humans". It's entirely the fault of the serial killer, and the fact that someone "signed up for the possibility" of living next to a serial killer is not taken into consideration at all.

Well. Historically we said that, but over the last several years progressive urbanists and anti-carceralists have taken strange new approaches to victim-blaming.

not difficult

you overestimate people.

I'd be curious to know if there are serial abortion users.

If I'm reading this data from 2016 correctly approximately 6% of women obtaining an abortion have had three or more, approximately 40% inclusive have had one or more.

I don’t think we apply such a black and white understanding of causality to every risky activity.

Most risky activities don't potentially create and subsequently harm a third party. I'm open to better comparisons here but off the top of my head, pregnancy is unique in terms of causality.

Like... if two people go rock climbing, use their equipment poorly, and risk injury, it's quite unlikely that they fall and crush a third person that was just walking around the base of the cliff. Or whatever.

Most risky activities that injure third parties, there is a lot of regulation! Smoking bans come to mind. Pollution. Hmm... Maybe vehicular accidents are a better comparator- harm comes from (generally) unintentional misuse, and there's relatively lower consequences compared to other forms of manslaughter.

A surprising amount of fertilizations don’t result in a viable pregnancy.

Shooting into an occupied dwelling is illegal even if no person gets shot, so there are also other situations where causality and consequence are treated in quite a black and white manner. Bit of a stretch though.

The democrats have never cared about “blasphemy” in any form

Of course not and they still don't, this is all arguments-as-soldiers. They couldn't possibly care less but it's a "fun" excuse to get Trump's supporters to complain about him.

The democrats defended the film “Last Temptation of Christ” that depicted Christ as struggling with homosexuality

Possibly thinking of the play Corpus Christi or one of the other works. I could've sworn there was another movie by an Italian director but I can't find it on wikipedia.

I think they are correct to fight it. Any sort of seemingly soft barrier can be turned into a hard barrier.

Fair enough.

I was gesturing towards how science (better ultrasound) contributes to a non-science value judgement, or rather, undercuts a theoretical judgement: I hear it's much harder to go through with an abortion once you see the heartbeat or fingers or face, than if you keep it a pleasantly theoretical "clump of cells."

That is what governs the debate—not the microscopic details. So regardless of how much information we gather about the fetus, the abortion issue does not fundamentally change. It won’t be resolved by higher-resolution data; the question is about the value we assign, and science alone cannot determine that.

Science alone can't determine that, but to be a bit cheeky about 'higher resolution'- there's a reason that pro-life types campaign for pre-abortion ultrasounds, and pro-choice types fight that tooth and nail.

But does this matter?

Depends on why you're doing it. If you're trying to come up with a reason an intelligent, rational individual will believe X, steelmanning can be useful. If you're trying to understand why the youths or the elderly or PMC liberals with In This House signs post like they believe X, steelmanning is useless.

it stands to reason that those who do hold the position for more intelligent reasons hold an outsize influence on it

I do not think that stands to reason at all. Popularity and influence do not strike me as particularly well correlated to intelligent reasoning.

Robin Diangelo, Tema Okun, Ibram Kendi are quite stupid people that held, for several years, an incredibly amount of influence, perhaps precisely because their reasoning is incredibly simple. Nor do I think this trend is limited to progressive racism.

Whatever steelman someone creates for an irrational position to seem more rational is going to be considerably less related to what people actually believe.

It can still be a useful exercise, but one must approach it with the awareness that the steelman is wholly unrelated to whatever drives the fangirls.