sodiummuffin
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User ID: 420
sodiummuffin
23d ago
Daniel Lakens: Impossibly Hungry Judges
Andreas Glöckner: The irrational hungry judge effect revisited: Simulations reveal that the magnitude of the effect is overestimated
In short: the supposed effect is absurdly large, with the probability of a favorable ruling going from 65% to almost 0% before a break. The far more likely explanation is that, since the order of cases is not random, worse cases are scheduled last. In particular, it makes sense for judges to put short cases last rather than ones anticipated to go over time, and losing cases are shorter.
This sort of explanation should be the first thing we consider when hearing about a supposed effect like this. Outside of actual randomized control trials selection bias tends to be more powerful than the effect being investigated and common methods like "we controlled for some things we thought of and assumed any remaining discrepancy was the effect we're looking for" are inadequate for dealing with it.
Fascist ideology isn't particularly well-defined and is mostly notable for its role among the Axis countries during WW2. This provides a good sanity-check when comparing something to fascism: is it more or less similar to fascism than the Allies were? If something wasn't distinctive to the fascist countries, but in fact was widespread among other countries as well, then one begins to suspect that the purpose of associating it with fascism (rather than with the countries that defeated fascism) is because the former has a worse reputation. You can define fascism so broadly that all of WW2 was just fascist infighting, but that makes it a much less useful label and means people have less reason to care about it.
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