sohois
1d ago
The sheer tide of transgenders seems like it would nullify any serious findings from this. I automatically picked the non-trans every time, except in the numerous occasions they were both trans
sohois
1d ago
Nvidia is probably the AI good capabilitymaxxing US company, no? Although they're in a weird position now where Huang is both "AI super intelligence will take over all economic activity (except Nvidia chips)" and "AI is just a normal technology that won't replace everyone's jobs" in order to play their different stakeholders.
Similarly, they're also in the position of telling Trump how important it is for the US to beat China, but also they really need to sell all their chips to China.
sohois
3d ago
you don't believe any of it because a falsehood in the text invalidates the claims of the text.
It's not really falsehood singular though, is it? How do you square the infallible word of God with the dozens if not hundreds of factual errors contained within the Bible?
sohois
3d ago
Which part? "Next week" was more a figure of speech than a definitive prediction, "soon" would be more accurate. But it seems a difficult bet to judge purely using Trump's statements
sohois
4d ago
I see. I'm not sure what this prediction does for x-risk beyond the simpler "finance bubble bursts and labs collapsed" thesis. Why does adding in a further step where the labs are bought out decrease risk? Indeed such a situation seems like it would increase risk somewhat. In the former scenario, development stops and nothing replaces it, while in the latter there is still big company financing, even if it is reduced by accountants. Plus, the big, founder led companies like X, Meta, and Amazon could easily push big funds past the protests of their shareholders.
But as I mentioned in my first response, these big guys are already invested. Google, X, and Meta are in the race, Microsoft is somewhat there (I don't think anyone knows the precise details of OpenAis weird corporate structure and ownership) and even in China the likes of Alibaba are already players. I would guess in the event of a bubble bursting taking out Anthropic and OAI, Musk or Google would simply push ahead
sohois
4d ago
Trump's opinions are as changeable as the wind, so I wouldn't read anything long term into any of his statements. He'll talk to someone with a different opinion next week and come out with something completely different (but still senile).
The Chinese reaction certainly seems like a misplay from Amodei though. I felt like all his anti-China rhetoric was mainly an appeal to bring republicans onside (contrary to some of the posts below), completely forgetting that the CCP can also read. Their reaction is pretty rational to the language used in his proposals. Has it done long term damage? I doubt "it's over", but safetyists will definitely need a much more careful approach in future
sohois
5d ago
First the big tech companies need to demonstrate any kind of competency in building good models for that to be a concern.
Google very briefly caught up with 2.5, but has been a joke since then. Microsoft is all in on OpenAi. Apple have failed to do anything in that arena. Amazon seem happy just to be a cloud provider for other models. Musk is uncertain, he seems to flit between safety and acceleration depending on whatever he sees on Xitter that day. And then there's meta, who at least got a model that could appear in leaderboards this time, but no one's betting on those chumps
Yudkowsky is definitely going to be better known than Scott. The latter has heavily shied away from any kind of podcast stuff while Yud has gone all in with the launch of his book.
Which isn't to say that normies know anything about him, just that he's probably the best known of your list
More options
Context Copy link