theSinisterMushroom
No bio...
User ID: 3332
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
They evidently can't win this.
citation needed
neither Euros nor Ukie radicals want any concession.
oh, I see, the concession required is just a small thing called loss of sovereignty.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
They worked out a solution where Cuba got to keep their communist Soviet-aligned regime but didn't get ICBMs? Great, let's do that for Ukraine now.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
If the Ukrainians can claim victory, which at this point may be just keeping their identity and an independent state, they could conceivably go through a reconstruction boom (baby and economic). Few things catalyze identity formation like resisting a bully.
Why, say, should the key takeaway from https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/three-four-russians-expect-military-victory-over-ukraine be that 7% more Russians want peace talks than last year? "As in past surveys, three in four support the continued military action in Ukraine" seems just as relevant?
Because, in Russia, disparaging the SMO is punishable by being sent to the gulag, so every poll/interview is full of equivocations, "we fully 100% support great leader Putin and the SMO, we believe 100% in inevitable total victory over the khokhols, but perhaps the czar should consider thinking about, if it pleases him of course, making steps toward peace."
All your link says is that the EU has 'agreed' that frozen Russian assets should be sent to Ukraine. But they can't actually figure out a way to do this for fear of legal/reputational risks. Nations will understandably have some difficulty trusting the EU with their money if the EU can just take it and give it away as they please. It's just talk until they do it.
I will put down (up to) $5000 that money from frozen Russian assets will be used toward Ukraine by the end of 2026. Will you meet me?
Your link saying North Korean shells have a failure rate of 50% comes directly from Ukrainian intelligence.
There's plenty of Russian army telegram channels complaining about the shells. Is it 30% or 50%? I won't litigate this, so willing to concede this point.
There's a huge disparity between these strikes. The Russians have far more missile striking power, much bigger warheads on Iskander or Kinzhals than Ukraine has with their measly drones.
Yes, there's a huge disparity in the strikes in that Russia has kind of run out of high value targets within easy reach in eastern Ukraine. Unless they're going to strike Ukraine's benefactors in the West, or get their missiles on Ukraine's arms factories in western Ukraine (which they don't seem to be doing much for some reason) then Ukraine's puny and sparse drone and cruise missiles will keep doing outsized damage to Russia.
It's no good to just shine a spotlight on every Russian shortcoming, real or imagined, the situation needs to be considered in aggregate.
I agree, my post was an overreaction to an infuriatingly bad and partisan post not worthy of The Motte. Sadly two wrongs don't make a right, I apologize for taking the bait and not raising the discourse level.
I'm quoting such pro-Ukraine sources as Putin, Izvestia, Moskovsky Komsomolets, and Komsomolskaya Pravda
said what he meant
he concern trolled without abandon, built consensus and had so many air-quotes he may as well have been winking to his pro-Russian fanbase over here.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
Strange that the nearly word-for-word identical pro-Russia post didn't pass your screed bar.
But yes, I think Ukraine will accelerate its economic damage to Russia in 2026.
Not sure about the deboonkings you're talking about, pretty sure there's an open source database with video or picture proof of the tens of thousands of destroyed Russian hardware.
China would also like to stay on Europe's good side presumably. Still, it's funny that we're back to accepting Russia-Ukraine as a proxy Chinese-European war.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
this was it, thank you!
Edited for correctness, clarity, and tone...
With apologies to the motte for the tardiness on this, I've been recovering from an injury.
A reply to https://www.themotte.org/post/3359/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/381026?context=8#context
Russia.
"We will eat grass rather than become a Russian colony again" — Polish FM Sikorski (and every other sane person in Eastern Europe)
Not to worry, the Russophiles may have a counterproposal, "Your country
and women will be raped anyways, wouldn't you rather spend your few
remaining years in a nice camp in Siberia rather than the frontlines?" —
@No_one, probably
By now, wise people, who read the newspapers (Russian newspapers generally never lie), have noticed that the news out of Russia is bad. After years of relentless and very stupid propaganda, even 'Izvestia' is running articles such as "Nearly 7000 transport companies in Russia on verge of bankruptcy" and "The share of companies with overdue loans reached a record one in four." A bit of lying around the end, "there is no recession, but of course there are negative trends." (https://youtube.com/watch?v=xbTDbAosRVM)
'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' ditto "the total volume of mutual trade [with China] continues to decline. […] imports of Russian oil decreased by 21%." (https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vs2xNro016M)
That means something. Not at all clear what. Obsessive observers of the war believe Russia is likely to hold out until end of '26, early '27. However:
1- There's a financing issue.
Sure, the Chinese may be willing to keep buying Russian crude at obscene discounts of nearly $20 dollars per barrel (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Sanctions-Widen-Russias-Crude-Discount-to-20-a-Barrel.html) but will that be enough to keep financing the war?
Russia, as everyone knows, is mostly broke, with the exception of oil and gas revenue, which is only because Europe propped them up. Paying through the nose for overpriced recruits like e.g. convicted criminals and 50 year old grandpas (2 million rubles sign-on bonus, 5 million first year salary) which are going to be used as meat assaults for a gain of 2 meters of frontline doesn't seem like a winning strategy, especially when $500 fpv drones being able to destroy them.
Unlike Ukraine, which will be getting direct Russian cash (which will be replaced by zero-coupon AAA bonds for Russia to pay reparations out of after the war lol) https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/eu-finance-ministers-agree-using-frozen-russian-assets-most-effective-way-to-fund-ukraine, Russia will be resorting to raising money from its Chinese handlers (except because of the sanctions, China can't participate) in Yuan-denominated domestic bonds. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/11/12/russia-to-issue-first-yuan-denominated-domestic-bonds-on-december-8/ Russia-Ukraine watchers will be paying close attention to the interest rates on these.
2- Materially, it's bad.
We know the gist of the situation, Russia has too few IFVs, AFVs, tanks. After losing upwards of 60% of their gigantic pre-war stockpile (the remaining ones being rusted out hulls with their insides scrapped or sold by corrupt base managers), Russian forces are resorting to using donkeys and camels to resupply their frontlines. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-depletes-tank-reserves-due-to-wear-and-tear-in-ukraine/ar-AA1JRlKJ https://www.newsweek.com/russia-deploys-donkeys-camels-ukraine-amid-resupply-struggles-2037097
There is a shortage of everything in Russia, petrol (https://youtube.com/watch?v=CSK7hPhwQl0), bread, potatoes, milk, even vodka (https://youtube.com/watch?v=HncXBqcedCg), but also cars too (https://youtube.com/watch?v=xt6_axtjJMs). Why there is a shortage of cars seems… mysterious. China surely should be able to keep Russians knee deep in cheap trucks. What gives?
There is even a shortage of artillery shells, Russia famously resorting to using North Korean bottom shelf products with 50% failure rates. Not to worry, I'm sure their drones will be way better. https://www.newsweek.com/half-russia-north-korea-made-artillery-shells-do-not-work-vadym-skibitsky-1873612 https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/north-korea-runs-out-of-shells-for-putin-1763159907.html
Russia drops bombs using their many planes daily, but Ukrainians
sometimes deliver up to 300 drones and ballistic cruise missile strikes a day.
Any refinery, power plant, supply dump even far away from the front can
be hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/14/ukraine-war-kyiv-hit-russian-attack/
https://i.redd.it/zxpc8b6p9b1g1.jpeg
3- The front.
In 2025, Russian forces have made significant territorial gains in Ukraine, capturing approximately 165 square miles in the four weeks leading up to November 11, 2025. At these rates, Russia should be able to take all of Ukraine in a few decades. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-11-2025
Overall, as you probably know, the situation on the front is bad. Russia is trading immense amounts of blood and treasure for small territorial gains, and patting themselves on the back for it.
Going by the aphorism 'If you're reading this, it's for you,' it looks like the Russian press is preparing the public for 2-3 more years of depression (https://youtube.com/watch?v=z3BVZ66KcrE), a closing act of its imperial ambitions that started with the little green men invasion of the Donbas. Russians may or may not be eager for peace, "61%, up from 54% in 2024 believe it is time to start peace negotiations rather than continue military operations in Ukraine," (https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/three-four-russians-expect-military-victory-over-ukraine) but unfortunately they have chosen a strong man as a leader (https://youtube.com/watch?v=rXwuLlZeIN0) that has tied his political fortunes to the result of this war, claiming such things as "Russia's border doesn't end anywhere" (https://youtube.com/watch?v=fWaXH7N__LU).
Some time ago (years?) either here or on reddit (on the motte or ssc) someone had posted about daily affirmations inspirational/motivational quotes that their mother packed into their school lunch. These passages seemed to have a profound impact on their life, even if received with eye rolls at the time (C'mon mom, don't be so lame/cringe).
They were (all? mostly?) quotes from an athlete (not Yogi Berra). I really thought they were down to earth and insightful/deep, but I can't find them or the athlete in question anymore.
So, daily quote thread. For your kids, for your self, friends, enemies. Do they work? Any good ones to share?
For posterity, I was thinking about Sleeper Agents, https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.05566 and more recent developments like AdvBDGen: https://x.com/furongh/status/1846999547836264459
These backdoors evade current defenses. Unlike traditional ones, fuzzy backdoors adapt, making them extremely hard to remove by usual methods.
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
If most trafficking has to come by boat or plane I'd be ecstatic. I see your point about scope creep, seems like a trap the US has fallen for before.
The Chinese have what they consider an entire secessionist province with substantial foreign smuggling and arms trafficking as a neighbor
The Taiwanese are either scared shitless and hoping for more status quo or resigned to an eventual Chinese takeover, maybe with a newer, shinier pinky promise about one country two systems. Taiwan would never dare to provoke the mainland by allowing any serious smuggling or arms trafficking. But I wonder, when they look at America, do they see a strong horse or a weak one?
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
I realize now that DeepSeek is pretty much the perfect Chinese game theory move: let the US believe a small AI lab full of cunning Chinese matched OpenAI, with a tiny fraction of the compute budget, with no ability to get SOTA GPUs. Let the US believe the export regime works, but that it doesn't matter, because Chinese brilliance is superior, demoralizing efforts to strengthen it. Additionally, it would make the US skeptical of big investment in OpenAI capital infrastructure because there's no moat.
The report is quite detailed and the process supposedly cheap enough that we should get easy confirmation if it works.
If DeepSeek does have access to much more compute (smuggled in or otherwise), then maybe the thought is they may have an o3-level model in-house. The actually paranoid thought is that the released models may be compromised. I'm not sure how easy to tell if there's a SolidGoldMagikarp in it. But a US-based company could run the training to check if it's actually $5 million.
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
The moment the cartels hit united states politicians or citizens will be an inflection point, for sure. It won't end well for them
I acknowledge my mistake of your intent, and will simply adjust by noting I consider this a terrible idea. Providing global audiences, including competitors, skeptics, and wavering audiences, documentary evidence of American war crimes is quite appreciable downsides for American efforts globally, particularly when trying to hide behind false-flag islamic terrorism in a region that notably has a lack of it (because the cartels have a history of not tolerating it).
In the released video, maybe add a short video snippet of the victims of their crimes. Or don't release anything, maybe legends will spread of the ghosts of cartel victims taking out entire bases.
And this is without the issue of the intervention being framed on principles that the intervention is supposed to mitigate, not perpetuate. The propaganda of 'American gangsters are moving in' practically writes itself.
Any news stories about American gangs invading would die down quick enough. Obviously the stories of Mexican gangsters moving into the United States don't upset them too much.
But yes, if the Mexico-US border is such that there need to be gangsters running it, then those gangsters should understand that there are certain limits to what behavior can be tolerated. If that is unacceptable, they decide to go to mat for fentanyl and reorganize to insurgent activity and accept Chinese military support and we lose, then it's better to get this metaphorical American Century of Humiliation started already than keep pretending.
Hence why it is critical that any intervention be with the consent / support of the local government, and not in contemptuous indifference to their position, as the OP took.
Yes, this would be ideal. Will it happen? Maybe the government declares an emergency following a newly surfaced/resurfaced video of cartel violence and forms an agency nominally under the president's control, that would be kinda cool. Maybe some respected or shadowy Mexican agency or the army just takes credit? Just spitballing here
For a basis of comparison- the US costs in Japan and Korea from 2016 to 2019 were less than 40 billion USD, or 40,000,000, 000. For the cartels to have resources a dozen orders of magnitude less than the resources the US uses over multiple years as part of treaty commitments, the Cartels would need to spend less than $1.
I think the mistake was quantitative rather than qualitative. The overmatch is still brutal. Would spending $20 bln on an anticartel op or two not be a drop in the bucket? Let's see how far that can get us towards stamping out fentanyl moving in from Mexico. Maybe it's worth the investment. How much is continuing to push fentanyl on America worth it to the cartels? How much is stopping it worth it to us?
And your view on the historical patterns of when the 'Don't just stand there- do something!' instinct in the face of bad things is mixed with policy proposals to attack outsiders because internal reforms are dismissed as 'too hard'?
Yes, the US needs to work on itself too. Still, it's a low hanging fruit to insist that your neighbors stop breaking into your house to sell fentanyl. It's too profitable to stop? Let's make it unprofitable. No sorry tell your addicted sister to fix herself doesn't warm my heart.
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
I don't like falling in the same camp as the 'China is the source of all evil' people but there is a good chance that the Chinese state is smiling on people exporting fentanyl precursors to the US. "Try to wreck our high-tech industries with sanctions and keep us in the middle income trap? Plant COVID on us (note that China also has an official history that the US used bioweapons against them in Korea)? We will bury you in narcotics, we'll wreck your high-tech industries with IP theft and industrial policy."
Their beef should be with Britan, we didn't do the opium wars, no fair!
You send stealthy long-loiter-time surveillance drones over mexico. You use them to ID organized Cartel activity, cross-referencing electronic intel from the NSA. When you locate a concentration of Cartel activity, a stealthy plane drops a container from 35,000 feet, which pops open at 30,000 feet and spills out a hundred small anti-personnel drones. These drones fly down to the target area and messily unalive selected targets in the strike zone, recording high-quality video of exactly who they splatter in the process. No hellfires, no demolished buildings; half-pound directional frag charges, with close range and wide-angle video record of exactly who was hit and what they were doing.
I remember seeing a video of those military drone swarms in action a few years ago. Wish I could find it again
Maybe it's still not worth the effort. I am a fairly committed non-interventionist, and there is certainly a strong non-interventionist argument to be made here. But these are in fact some of the most vile people on earth, the harm they cause is considerable, and they're right fucking there. Maybe we really do have to just put up with them indefinitely as they rape and murder and torture and poison and corrupt both our biggest neighbor and our own citizens. But then why the fuck does this argument not apply to China or Russia?
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
There's only so many evidence chain manufacturers, plus it's a adversarial process you don't want to fuck up. Then you also have to try to arrest them. Of course, the cartels don't bother with any of that, they just kill you.
You send multi-million dollars worth of equipment into Northern Mexico. Drones costing a few hundred to thousand dollars blow them up. Rinse and repeat until the American taxpayer gets tired of seeing the celebratory videos on the internet while foreigners simultaneously mock them and highlight every American-caused casualty as an atrocity.
Yeah, seeing just the non-secret developments in new drone and satellite technologies makes this completely non-credible for me.
Assuming you are an American- please show some self-awareness when accusing who of fucking over who, particularly when you are advocating an act of war against a neighbor.
Is this about the Zetas? I don't want to relitigate shit from the 1800s about how America is a bad neighbor. Please let me know when and how the United States has fucked over Mexico to the tune of trillions of dollars of cumulative economic damage, enriching themselves in the process.
I repeat the earlier point: you are making poor geopolitical analogies.
The Americans have not been able to make organized criminal groups inside the US 'capitulate' in 60 years. The US lasted about 20 years in Afghanistan, and considerably less in Mogadishu against worse-equipped criminal warlords. The idea that you would be able to totally defeat inernational cartels in 60 days by occuping a fraction of a country, in a country that you do not speak the language of, over a border zone you have never been able to seal, is not serious.
Your analogies look bad to me too. Criminal groups inside the US have a lot of legal protections. They, of course, act with impunity, and their bosses can retreat to Mexico and go neener neener, you can't hit me.
Afghanistan is 7,300 miles away, Mexico we share a border with. Afghanistan was also a while ago, we have learned lots of lessons, we have much better technology. Will this stupid comparison never die?
You also seem to think no American citizens speak Spanish and are tired of drugs and cartels fucking up their communities.
And even if you can initially disrupt, what then? Say you somehow clear them from area X in 60 day, but on day 61 you go home. What do you think happens on day 62? Or day 63? Or [however many days you stay]+1? What- besides grabbing clay and building forts to compel indefinite military threats- is your compliance plan?
My plan is that the cartel bosses that continue to not play nice with the United States will keep dying. Sooner rather than later they will learn to order their thugs to wind down certain operations. Maybe just a few to start. @FCfromSSC puts it much eloquently below.
In exchange, maybe they can receive certain protections, and be guided to switch to economically productive governance.
You're not thinking like a cartel. Or rather, you seem to think cartels are unitary actors who a singular 'they' can capture, as opposed to coalitions of autonomous rivals who often fight over profit share.
These autonomous rivals living in Morelia or Gonzalez or Durango or wherever all seem to know exactly who their boss is. Let's make sure the ones near the border know that their boss' boss is American.
If the individual cartels test each other out and have areas of control and neutral zones, does not pushing back on their expansion mean you're just rolling over?
No, it does not.
What does it mean, if anything, allowing you and your neighbors to be abused by some of the most objectively evil criminal enterprises in existence?
What does it mean about the sovereignty of Mexico that it's been infiltrated by and protects these psychopathic paramilitary gangs as they flood their neighbors with the most evil drugs?
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
It's cool that there's some softer mechanisms starting to turn here as well.
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
Thank you for the reply, it was interesting to chew on.
It's not that the US lacks the firepower or the manpower or the wealth, they lack the political capacity and will to execute these kinds of imperial military operations.
Maybe this is a Only Nixon could go to China type of moment.
If cartels are so easy to beat in Mexico, why can't the US wipe out the drug dealers in America?
Kind of hard to beat an opponent you're not allowed to touch their core.
How well did the US fare in the last campaign against a nebulous collection of unconventional forces in a drug-rich foreign land?
This feels like learned helplessness. China doesn't seem to have a drug crisis, is it not profitable to sell fentanyl to Chinese citizens from across their borders? Why not?
The lessons of Afghanistan should be applied to Mexico which is considerably larger.
The difference is that Mexico is our neighbor, and their gangs are literally controlling territory inside the core of the United states. And yes, we better have learned a lot of lessons since Afghanistan.
I saw the whole documentary. The fact that this sort of thing is acceptable or met with shrugs, they're just too strong, too manly for us to control makes me want to short America and long China.
China and Russia would leap at the chance to flex their muscles and make even more problems in the US's sphere of influence, tie them down and bleed them.
This is the strongest point. I'm not sure I can fully address it. But isn't Russia busy enough? Would they risk aggravating the Unites States even more, especially now? I just don't see it. Will China go mask-off? Maybe.
The cartels would start acquiring MANPADs, ATGMs, explosives, cash, drones.
Are they actually willing to transform their enterprises from successful money-making operations to Afghan-style insurgencies where they hide in tunnels for weeks? What will their leaders do once their compounds, palaces, armies, themselves start blowing up?
How should the US act? Slowly build up political capacity step by step, don't leap straight to the end boss. Crack down on drugs at home before an ill-planned, hazy military action overseas. Fight where you are strongest and where the enemy is weakest, build up confidence and experience.
Agree here, but there are also certain windows of opportunity that may or may not stay open forever. Is China more or less likely to involve itself next year? The year after? How long do you suffer this violation in a contested world?
Thank you for the pushback, even though I'm not convinced.
If you do so anyway, there are many, many, many ways it can go badly, particularly if the sovereign state doesn't give you permission.
I know you're more of an expert on armed forces and geopolitics than I am, would love to heart some scenarios.
Given how many things in diplomacy rest of voluntary cooperation, there are many ways for an unwanting state to make their neighbor's life difficult, even without armed resistance, and in the modern era there are also easy ways for that to go very, very costly.
But it feels like as far as neighborliness goes, Mexico has been hitting defect pretty insistently. It ain't no Mr. Rogers. Well actually we've always been fucking you over slowly seems like a weak argument.
This sort of behavior from a neighbor that's the junior partner seems intolerable. It would never be accepted by Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, or any sane country.
This doesn't even touch how foreign state actors could partake and interfere- such as smuggling weapons (see- drones) to cartels for use against the Americans.
It would be a pretty mask off moment for those foreign state actors. Russia/Iran/NK are sorta busy. China would rather bide its time and build up for a few more years, and it would focus on Taiwan anyways. Maybe some South American countries would consider getting involved?
I guess the real disconnect is that I think if it does escalate to combat between one or more cartels and the US, the cartels would capitulate in less than 60 days, making it a fait accompli.
Yes, I know, four day operation to Kyiv and all, but we're not threatening their nationhood or trying to grab clay. If they're at all businessmen they'll realize that we can make them bleed and lose treasure very hard very fast. If the individual cartels test each other out and have areas of control and neutral zones, does not pushing back on their expansion mean you're just rolling over?
theSinisterMushroom
1yr ago
You're arguing it's a no-win situation, but can the incumbent hegemon allow itself to capitulate to foreign cartels controlling its territory during times of global stress?
This makes sense to me. I do remember that the US has suspended aid to Ukraine for 90 days. I'm assuming this is a signal to Putin that he has three months to make something happen or fold. But it could be cover. If there is reticence from the cartels, and there is a decapitation strike, pour encourager les autres, any equipment Putin sends may cause Trump to escalate in Ukraine.
I actually think that counterinsurgency has gotten drastically easier for a committed modern army. It helps if you don't need to occupy the territory or win hearts and minds. For all the gnashing and wailing about potential collateral damage, cartels are raping torturing and executing men, women, and children.
Drones and satellites are quite the force multiplier in the AI age. Special forces battalion on bradleys with night vision, orlan/supercam and switchblade drones and whatever drone carrier/swarm secret tech the CIA has cooking would go through a narco base like butter for at least a while. How long would the cartel heads be willing to endure this punishment?
I also remember looking at a map of the cartel areas of influence in Mexico where I noticed some smaller cartels around the border, Arellano Felix, Carrillio Fuentes. Maybe those can be induced to play ball if they are not already.
Ukraine most likely will never gain back any clay lost, that is true. However, what it can do is intensify its economic damage to Russia, in the hopes that it can keep its sovereignty, and make continuing the war unappealing for Russia.
Remember that it was Russia that rejected Trump's peace plan, which included international recognition of Crimea as Russian, no NATO membership for Ukraine, and Russia gets to keep captured territories, including the land bridge.
Piggybacking on this comment, there's an interesting discussion on what will be done with all the veterans of the war. This Russian economics professor believes they will not be allowed to return, but will be given land in conquered Ukraine https://youtube.com/watch?v=GCalxQCXt7A (turn the infernal youtube auto-dub off)
Re: a more credible report on the state of the frontline comes from Michael Kofman https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1989384479098679688. TL;DR: bad but not dire for Ukraine, mobilization is an issue, no signs of impending operational breakthroughs or accelerations in Russian gains.
Notably, Russia promised it would have Pokrovsk (and much more) by the end of the summer. They may or may not have it by the end of the year. Kofman believes Ukraine may suffer some setbacks but will stabilize over winter.
More options
Context Copy link