theSinisterMushroom
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User ID: 3332
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
They evidently can't win this.
citation needed
neither Euros nor Ukie radicals want any concession.
oh, I see, the concession required is just a small thing called loss of sovereignty.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
They worked out a solution where Cuba got to keep their communist Soviet-aligned regime but didn't get ICBMs? Great, let's do that for Ukraine now.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
If the Ukrainians can claim victory, which at this point may be just keeping their identity and an independent state, they could conceivably go through a reconstruction boom (baby and economic). Few things catalyze identity formation like resisting a bully.
Why, say, should the key takeaway from https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/three-four-russians-expect-military-victory-over-ukraine be that 7% more Russians want peace talks than last year? "As in past surveys, three in four support the continued military action in Ukraine" seems just as relevant?
Because, in Russia, disparaging the SMO is punishable by being sent to the gulag, so every poll/interview is full of equivocations, "we fully 100% support great leader Putin and the SMO, we believe 100% in inevitable total victory over the khokhols, but perhaps the czar should consider thinking about, if it pleases him of course, making steps toward peace."
All your link says is that the EU has 'agreed' that frozen Russian assets should be sent to Ukraine. But they can't actually figure out a way to do this for fear of legal/reputational risks. Nations will understandably have some difficulty trusting the EU with their money if the EU can just take it and give it away as they please. It's just talk until they do it.
I will put down (up to) $5000 that money from frozen Russian assets will be used toward Ukraine by the end of 2026. Will you meet me?
Your link saying North Korean shells have a failure rate of 50% comes directly from Ukrainian intelligence.
There's plenty of Russian army telegram channels complaining about the shells. Is it 30% or 50%? I won't litigate this, so willing to concede this point.
There's a huge disparity between these strikes. The Russians have far more missile striking power, much bigger warheads on Iskander or Kinzhals than Ukraine has with their measly drones.
Yes, there's a huge disparity in the strikes in that Russia has kind of run out of high value targets within easy reach in eastern Ukraine. Unless they're going to strike Ukraine's benefactors in the West, or get their missiles on Ukraine's arms factories in western Ukraine (which they don't seem to be doing much for some reason) then Ukraine's puny and sparse drone and cruise missiles will keep doing outsized damage to Russia.
It's no good to just shine a spotlight on every Russian shortcoming, real or imagined, the situation needs to be considered in aggregate.
I agree, my post was an overreaction to an infuriatingly bad and partisan post not worthy of The Motte. Sadly two wrongs don't make a right, I apologize for taking the bait and not raising the discourse level.
I'm quoting such pro-Ukraine sources as Putin, Izvestia, Moskovsky Komsomolets, and Komsomolskaya Pravda
said what he meant
he concern trolled without abandon, built consensus and had so many air-quotes he may as well have been winking to his pro-Russian fanbase over here.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
Strange that the nearly word-for-word identical pro-Russia post didn't pass your screed bar.
But yes, I think Ukraine will accelerate its economic damage to Russia in 2026.
Not sure about the deboonkings you're talking about, pretty sure there's an open source database with video or picture proof of the tens of thousands of destroyed Russian hardware.
China would also like to stay on Europe's good side presumably. Still, it's funny that we're back to accepting Russia-Ukraine as a proxy Chinese-European war.
theSinisterMushroom
4mo ago
this was it, thank you!
Edited for correctness, clarity, and tone...
With apologies to the motte for the tardiness on this, I've been recovering from an injury.
A reply to https://www.themotte.org/post/3359/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/381026?context=8#context
Russia.
"We will eat grass rather than become a Russian colony again" — Polish FM Sikorski (and every other sane person in Eastern Europe)
Not to worry, the Russophiles may have a counterproposal, "Your country
and women will be raped anyways, wouldn't you rather spend your few
remaining years in a nice camp in Siberia rather than the frontlines?" —
@No_one, probably
By now, wise people, who read the newspapers (Russian newspapers generally never lie), have noticed that the news out of Russia is bad. After years of relentless and very stupid propaganda, even 'Izvestia' is running articles such as "Nearly 7000 transport companies in Russia on verge of bankruptcy" and "The share of companies with overdue loans reached a record one in four." A bit of lying around the end, "there is no recession, but of course there are negative trends." (https://youtube.com/watch?v=xbTDbAosRVM)
'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' ditto "the total volume of mutual trade [with China] continues to decline. […] imports of Russian oil decreased by 21%." (https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vs2xNro016M)
That means something. Not at all clear what. Obsessive observers of the war believe Russia is likely to hold out until end of '26, early '27. However:
1- There's a financing issue.
Sure, the Chinese may be willing to keep buying Russian crude at obscene discounts of nearly $20 dollars per barrel (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Sanctions-Widen-Russias-Crude-Discount-to-20-a-Barrel.html) but will that be enough to keep financing the war?
Russia, as everyone knows, is mostly broke, with the exception of oil and gas revenue, which is only because Europe propped them up. Paying through the nose for overpriced recruits like e.g. convicted criminals and 50 year old grandpas (2 million rubles sign-on bonus, 5 million first year salary) which are going to be used as meat assaults for a gain of 2 meters of frontline doesn't seem like a winning strategy, especially when $500 fpv drones being able to destroy them.
Unlike Ukraine, which will be getting direct Russian cash (which will be replaced by zero-coupon AAA bonds for Russia to pay reparations out of after the war lol) https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/eu-finance-ministers-agree-using-frozen-russian-assets-most-effective-way-to-fund-ukraine, Russia will be resorting to raising money from its Chinese handlers (except because of the sanctions, China can't participate) in Yuan-denominated domestic bonds. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/11/12/russia-to-issue-first-yuan-denominated-domestic-bonds-on-december-8/ Russia-Ukraine watchers will be paying close attention to the interest rates on these.
2- Materially, it's bad.
We know the gist of the situation, Russia has too few IFVs, AFVs, tanks. After losing upwards of 60% of their gigantic pre-war stockpile (the remaining ones being rusted out hulls with their insides scrapped or sold by corrupt base managers), Russian forces are resorting to using donkeys and camels to resupply their frontlines. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-depletes-tank-reserves-due-to-wear-and-tear-in-ukraine/ar-AA1JRlKJ https://www.newsweek.com/russia-deploys-donkeys-camels-ukraine-amid-resupply-struggles-2037097
There is a shortage of everything in Russia, petrol (https://youtube.com/watch?v=CSK7hPhwQl0), bread, potatoes, milk, even vodka (https://youtube.com/watch?v=HncXBqcedCg), but also cars too (https://youtube.com/watch?v=xt6_axtjJMs). Why there is a shortage of cars seems… mysterious. China surely should be able to keep Russians knee deep in cheap trucks. What gives?
There is even a shortage of artillery shells, Russia famously resorting to using North Korean bottom shelf products with 50% failure rates. Not to worry, I'm sure their drones will be way better. https://www.newsweek.com/half-russia-north-korea-made-artillery-shells-do-not-work-vadym-skibitsky-1873612 https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/north-korea-runs-out-of-shells-for-putin-1763159907.html
Russia drops bombs using their many planes daily, but Ukrainians
sometimes deliver up to 300 drones and ballistic cruise missile strikes a day.
Any refinery, power plant, supply dump even far away from the front can
be hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/14/ukraine-war-kyiv-hit-russian-attack/
https://i.redd.it/zxpc8b6p9b1g1.jpeg
3- The front.
In 2025, Russian forces have made significant territorial gains in Ukraine, capturing approximately 165 square miles in the four weeks leading up to November 11, 2025. At these rates, Russia should be able to take all of Ukraine in a few decades. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-11-2025
Overall, as you probably know, the situation on the front is bad. Russia is trading immense amounts of blood and treasure for small territorial gains, and patting themselves on the back for it.
Going by the aphorism 'If you're reading this, it's for you,' it looks like the Russian press is preparing the public for 2-3 more years of depression (https://youtube.com/watch?v=z3BVZ66KcrE), a closing act of its imperial ambitions that started with the little green men invasion of the Donbas. Russians may or may not be eager for peace, "61%, up from 54% in 2024 believe it is time to start peace negotiations rather than continue military operations in Ukraine," (https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/three-four-russians-expect-military-victory-over-ukraine) but unfortunately they have chosen a strong man as a leader (https://youtube.com/watch?v=rXwuLlZeIN0) that has tied his political fortunes to the result of this war, claiming such things as "Russia's border doesn't end anywhere" (https://youtube.com/watch?v=fWaXH7N__LU).
Some time ago (years?) either here or on reddit (on the motte or ssc) someone had posted about daily affirmations inspirational/motivational quotes that their mother packed into their school lunch. These passages seemed to have a profound impact on their life, even if received with eye rolls at the time (C'mon mom, don't be so lame/cringe).
They were (all? mostly?) quotes from an athlete (not Yogi Berra). I really thought they were down to earth and insightful/deep, but I can't find them or the athlete in question anymore.
So, daily quote thread. For your kids, for your self, friends, enemies. Do they work? Any good ones to share?
Ukraine most likely will never gain back any clay lost, that is true. However, what it can do is intensify its economic damage to Russia, in the hopes that it can keep its sovereignty, and make continuing the war unappealing for Russia.
Remember that it was Russia that rejected Trump's peace plan, which included international recognition of Crimea as Russian, no NATO membership for Ukraine, and Russia gets to keep captured territories, including the land bridge.
Piggybacking on this comment, there's an interesting discussion on what will be done with all the veterans of the war. This Russian economics professor believes they will not be allowed to return, but will be given land in conquered Ukraine https://youtube.com/watch?v=GCalxQCXt7A (turn the infernal youtube auto-dub off)
Re: a more credible report on the state of the frontline comes from Michael Kofman https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1989384479098679688. TL;DR: bad but not dire for Ukraine, mobilization is an issue, no signs of impending operational breakthroughs or accelerations in Russian gains.
Notably, Russia promised it would have Pokrovsk (and much more) by the end of the summer. They may or may not have it by the end of the year. Kofman believes Ukraine may suffer some setbacks but will stabilize over winter.
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