wingdingspringking
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User ID: 1348
wingdingspringking
7mo ago
If we see a crash on par with the great depression, the 30% of people that normally tune out politics are going to vote. Last time that happened, we got FDR and then leftist politics for 2 generations. This time it will be worse, since social media, if captured, allows for much tighter control over the narrative. Is that really worth the risk?
wingdingspringking
7mo ago
The social justice explosion from roughly 2012-2023.
wingdingspringking
7mo ago
It's easier to understand when you take into consideration that our current political environment is following closely on the heels of a full blown moral panic. Given the scale and scope of the moral panic, a lot of previous cultural assumptions can no longer be taken for granted.
I don't think the left has fully grasped this yet. So a lot of things that they previously assumed to be true, ideas like "They're just kids protesting, society will give them leeway", or "Making people feel uncomfortable for the sake of X disadvantaged group is likely to be met with nuanced consideration." are suddenly no longer valid. I think once this paradigm shift has been internalized, the bulk of the left leaning groups will chart a new course. Either that or fade into irrelevancy.
wingdingspringking
8mo ago
To some extent I'd argue that that's the crux of the entire culture war. The left, via their march through institutions as well as their early control over new media, gained access to a super weapon; the ability to point the whole of society against any individual. Western democracies, influenced by Hobbes, had gone to great lengths to make sure this could not be done without considerable hurdles. But suddenly this super weapon was not only available, but at the beck and call of anyone on the left with a good enough narrative. The only constraint was that it could only be pointed rightward.
So for a decade, we had ever increasing use of this weapon against a large number of people. But more often than not, those who were targeted were the "powerful", that is to say, successful people with something to loose . Anyone caught in the crosshairs was ruined; their career, social life, in some cases even freedom suddenly forfeit. But at the end of the day, those people were still alive. Still part of society. And as you said, I think the experience of having your world ripped away for seemingly no reason is enough to genuinely drive someone mad.
And that's what we're now seeing. A horde of these people, crazed to the point of mayhem, ripping apart the core foundations of society. And the left, like a child who shot their parent in a fit of anger, suddenly waking up to the fact that they destroyed their primary means of protection, and that there is no way to wind back the clock.
And while I think quite a few of us might take some grim satisfaction in that last statement, it doesn't change the fact that we're all on this ship as well. If it goes down, every one of us is going to suffer.
wingdingspringking
9mo ago
I think you're vastly underestimating what throwing the full power of the state at someone looks like. If you have full control over institutions, and the other side is going to pretend whatever you do is akin to killing babies, it basically means you have cart blanche to do what you want as long as you keep your base somewhat appeased. Trump seems to understand this. The old establishment didn't.
Media games/hearings to soften up support are a milquetoast response. Especially if your survival is on the line.
wingdingspringking
9mo ago
They won't fight back without power for the same reason that they wouldn't fight when they had power. "They" (the former establishment) are a bloated, hollowed out husk. They lack the ability or the consensus to take decisive action. I say this as someone that would have partially preferred that they stayed in power just for the stability it would have provided (Trump's actions will have huge unforeseen consequences - both positive and negative, even his most ardent supporters have to admit this). A competent "They" would have thrown the full power of the state against Trump the second he lost power the first time. Either that or used media manipulation to turn the page on him. In the end, they lacked the resolve to do either. They waited until it was clear he wasn't going away on his own, then launched a last minute, poorly orchestrated series of legal assaults that did little more than boost his popularity. Things that are too weak to defend themselves die. That's the way of the world.
wingdingspringking
10mo ago
In light of the stupid Elon hand gesture thing that still won’t die, let me offer a slightly different definition based on something I was just thinking about. A lot of what separates “woke” from run of the mill identity politics and/or ingroup-outgroup bias is the imposition of rules on the outgroup. This is where it takes on a somewhat religious tone ( slogans like “silence is violence” are analogous to the “convert or die” sentiment of the Muslim conquests or early crusades ).
What makes woke particularly insufferable is the rule creation mechanism. It doesn’t come from a canonical text, but rather, it’s an ever growing list of words or actions that were previously done by bad people. Racial slurs? – can’t say those, bad people used them a long time ago. Black facepaint? - can’t use that. Bad people did it a long time ago. Raising your straight arm at an angle above 90 degrees from the resting position? - can’t do that. You guessed it, because bad people did that a long time ago. Hell, you can’t even make the okay sign in some circles anymore because bad people did it on the internet. In addition, the rules are different depending on how “bad” your particular group is seen as being.
So, back to the Elon hand gesture. He’s not allowed to make it apparently. Why? Because it was done by the Nazis. It doesn’t matter that that is barely still in living memory. It doesn’t matter that none of his other actions are particularly Nazi-like. It doesn’t matter that it is a salute that comes naturally to humans and has been practiced by countless groups over the millennia. No, the gesture is verboten, now and forever. And unless you are constantly policing your actions and keeping up with the latest blacklists, you too will at some point do something that will mark you as an apostate.
The 30% vote against whoever is in power. 1929 US was fresh off of a decade of republican rule. So they gave it to the dems. The Wiemar republic was a pretty left wing entity. So the 30% swung it to the right.
It's really unlikely that a right wing party crashing the economy would result in people moving more to the right. If anything, it would kill the biggest electoral advantage that the republicans have traditionally enjoyed, benefit of the doubt on the economy.
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