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Notes -
The questions is whether the two-standard-deivation-above-average worker is better off with their effort-recognized package in a non-union shop, or with the standard package in a union shop.
I would guess the latter, most of the time.
Only one guy can work his way up to CEO, there are fewer opportunities for promotion than you think, and employers won't pay you that much more than the other people in the same job description just for doing good work. Most competent people seek advancement by leaving their firm for a better job title at a new company, rather than wait around for advancement opportunities at their current one.
At least, that's my impression for large megacorps where the owners are in a different sate/country from the average worker and treat them as numbers on a spreadsheet rather than individuals. There's definitely more room for recognition and advancement at smaller and locally-owned places where the owner actually sees and knows almost every employee. But those small shops aren't teh ones we're ussually talking about when we talk about union issues.
This is only true because these places don't even try to reward above-average productivity. I think it's difficult to measure, pay incentives wouldn't increase performance much, you're already selecting for low-skill employees by paying little, and differences in pay per employee would cause drama and workplace-politics problems. But it's my impression that there are, even in many low-skill occupations, often >1.5x differences in productivity per employee.
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