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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 5, 2022

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This comment got a number of reports and rightfully so because it's basically boo outgroup fan-fiction. In general you should avoid making predictions in the vein of "I'm confident this person I don't like is going to do this bad thing in the future." Predictions are fine, but since you're not a clairvoyant you should temper your assertions accordingly and also proactively bring evidence to the table.

This is just a warning.

Do you think that the above will not happen? If the above actually happens, exactly as described, is the above comment still against the rules?

I, personally, would object to the above post a whole lot less if it were framed as a formal prediction of something they are actually confident will happen. I am fairly confident that the above will not happen, and my displeasure at seeing people casually criticize their outgroup for things they haven't actually done yet would be offset by my expectation of politely rubbing their noses in it when their prediction is falsified. And of course, if the above does happen, exactly as described, I encourage you and others to rub my nose in it in turn, and I will happily admit that I was wrong.

The problem with what they're doing, in my opinion, is that they're assuming bad faith from the outgroup, not based on what they have done, but on what they assume they will do. Predicting the future is fraught, and these sorts of negative predictions can and often do become an excuse to exercise one's personal bigotries.