rockbier1218
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User ID: 1794
rockbier1218
9d ago
In general one-off claims of sexual abuse from a young child against a stepfather or family member tend to be far more believable than a MeToo or a Cornell 7.
This is probably the one category of claims where we should default to believing the child unless the child is clearly mentally unstable or prone to lying and exaggeration.
The risk of further harm is too great, the commonality of the crime is distressingly high, and children in general don’t have political or social-climbing motivations to make such an accusation.
And it’s also distressingly common for the female partner of the abuser to plug their ears and shut their eyes. See Alice Munro.
rockbier1218
9d ago
I think it was a pointless waste of political capital that probably materially harmed state capacity and drove out a lot of capable employees either immediately with buyouts or layoffs, or long-term (as those who are smart and capable but prefer stability over pay either leave quietly or never choose to work for the government in the first place).
That might be an acceptable tradeoff if it reined in expenditures but retarded levels of government spending (I think the recent number is 2 trillion in deficit spending this year) continue apace.
rockbier1218
9d ago
Being a pathological liar is hardly a disqualification for politicians. It may even be a prerequisite.
rockbier1218
13d ago
I think Centers have typically been the highest IQ players. They actually do need to have high spatial reasoning to identify blitzes, protections, etc.
For the HBD-minded among us it’s great evidence because almost every single center is a white guy with the most stereotypically European name possible.
rockbier1218
14d ago
It continues to be marvelously unbelievable how deeply dedicated the western liberal democracies are to ensuring that boomers have a comfortable and cushy final 20-30 years of life.
I have posted on here before how this has become my ultimate blackpill and has turned me into a single issue voter. Almost every single pressing issue we face is downstream of this boomer retirement idolatry.
Shall I go down the list?
Housing - if a boomer’s house value goes down by a single dollar it is a genocide.
Health care - if we don’t keep them alive for infinity years with free healthcare and infinity third world immigrants to wipe their asses Jesus will weep.
National debt/fiscal policy - obviously they deserve to have free money in their accounts every month, with zero means-testing. After all, they PAID INTO IT (I can’t actually blame them too much for this, it’s sold that way by the government, but social security insurance was always a tax in all but name)
I hope the connection to France and these protests is clear. Would these third world behaviors and riots still occur? Maybe. But would those people even be here in the first place if we didn’t have the need for infinity dollars to boomer retirement and housing values? Infinity health care for them? Would the productive young people still feel demoralized about the future if they could afford a house and their government actually gave a shit about their future beyond just extracting and directing their productive capacity to ensuring old people get to enjoy 30 years of retirement (really it’s limitless if you can live long enough. Enjoy your free money and free healthcare and free African ass wiper).
rockbier1218
3mo ago
It’s not even a decade or two at this point, people are hitting 3 decades fairly commonly
rockbier1218
3mo ago
Very insightful comment, thank you. Immediately as I was reading the phrase “read the room” came to mind. I would typically view this phrase as a subtle rebuke for not having a sophisticated social manner (appropriately, think of the classic autist nerd who blurts out truly offensive things), but you’ve given me a new lens from which to consider what this phrase actually means. And the point about this stemming from over socialization in Ted K’s framing also makes total sense.
As stupid and exhausting as these people are (who cannot extend the same courtesy and attempt to have a theory of mind for their political/social opposite), I do still consider it a sign of higher intelligence to be able to intuit and seamlessly blend in with any such space you find yourself in.
Despite my politics being unusual for a corporate PMC environment (here I am, after all), I still cringe at colleagues who cannot “read the room” and cannot help but to regard them as philistines of one sort or another. In general it’s a skill that has served me very well in life to be able to jump into most any space and blend in, despite how slimy it sometimes feels.
rockbier1218
3mo ago
Dalrymple is like AC/DC in that they only write and play one song with a thousand small variations, but what a song!
rockbier1218
3mo ago
I have the misfortune of seeing this within my own family.
You’re right that there is no easy solution, given that lifespans have never been this long we have zero idea as a species how to handle this state of affairs where people can be massive drains on society at large from the age of 65-95 (or longer)
I am becoming more and more of a single issue “voter” on the topic of gerontocracy. In quotes because there is no party in the United States that is not actively trying to grow it and give more money to old people at the expense of the young.
In New York there is something called STAR tax relief for homeowners. Households making less than 500k/year get a yearly check that serves as relief for school taxes you pay as a homeowner. If you are over 65, you are a special citizen who gets extra money (means tested at 110k/year, but there’s no such extra relief for younger people who make less than 110k, and yearly income is not really as relevant for older people who don’t need to save for retirement, have probably already raised kids or don’t have any, probably have paid off a mortgage, don’t need to save for a kids college fund, have likely already accrued wealth such that income is effectively meaningless, I could go on). Why? Why do these people get extra money at my expense? It’s supremely unjust and makes no rational sense, other than pandering to a large voting bloc. Pure politics that flies totally under the radar. And our entire society is riddled with handouts like this. Combine this with falling birth rates, higher life expectancy, etc. I feel like a good 70-80% of economic malaise and existential issues facing America could be resolved or greatly ameliorated by just cutting this shit entirely.
Of course it makes sense, boomers are a massive cohort and old people have most of the wealth, and they vote. And for some reason young people seem completely oblivious as to how much of their taxes flow to the old, and suggesting you redistribute this somewhat triggers empathy and accusations of killing your sweet grandma. In some ways this issue is much harder to actively build a coalition around because almost all of us have elderly relatives around and we all expect to one day be in their position and wouldn’t it be nice to retire and have the government pay for everything when we do?
rockbier1218
3mo ago
I also did the 30-year + aggressive payoff schedule (trending to 15 years and maybe less if family members die and I receive expected inheritance).
Keep in mind you do get to deduct mortgage interest paid, so if you are able to itemize deductions (should be more likely with SALT cap increasing to 40k) it works out to something more like 3-4% effective interest paid. Not bad if you want the flexibility and lower mandatory payments.
rockbier1218
1yr ago
I think the modal American at this point has just had enough of the velocity of the demographic changes. And the short-term lockout effect where we seem to be importing the upper middle class rather than growing our own natives into it. Long-term it’s probably true that this kind of immigration is good for the economy and makes the pie larger for everybody, but it’s just too much too fast. Every professional job given to an immigrant is a loss for an American that could have grown into it, and god forbid the company actually trains people into it.
So I don’t really care about these immigrants, many of them my coworkers, who I agree are clean and relatively polite, orderly, etc. I want America to feel American, these people do not feel American, they are civil but distinctly not American.
My 22-year old cousin joined the wave of CS grads and had an absolutely brutal time finding a job. He’s probably not FAANG-level but he can absolutely do any of the bullshit WITCH jobs or be a database maintainer for some bank or insurance company. He was ready to go be a car mechanic like his father until he was lucky enough to get a bank to hire him on a temp basis about one year after he graduated. In real-time, this is the cost of the H1B program and the disgusting fraud associated with it. A young man, born in America, trying to better himself through education so he can be better than his car mechanic father, and he had to scratch and claw to find a temporary CS job in the 21st century in America despite being 100% capable because we somehow decided actually millions of dudes from India were necessary instead. Now play this out on a widespread scale in the aggregate and we see how damaging this shit actually is.
rockbier1218
1yr ago
Chinese demographics are much worse than the US, I’m pretty sure they are sub-1 fertility rate and have been for years at this point. Sure the population is large but if half of their population is 50+ they are long-term not going to turn into some superpower
rockbier1218
1yr ago
True, but I think the tradeoff is worth it at this point. Notwithstanding the negative externalities on societal cohesion as a whole, the culture that sprung up around the Indian H1B scam factory is so fucking toxic for the tech industry. America is not only the innovation factory because we draw the best and the brightest, but because of the unique entrepreneurial culture that prizes outside the box thinking.
The Indians bring their rote memorization culture with them. Of course there are the entrepreneurs among them as well who come here and push that culture along, but let’s be honest 90+% are just people-pleasing corporate ass-coverers who also happen to have a millennia-long tradition of built-in discrimination deep in their bones. Enough already, the industry is hardly recognizable as American anymore.
rockbier1218
1yr ago
Thanks for the write-up, great read.
What was your playlist?
rockbier1218
1yr ago
I also like Past Lives and was excited for the movie but felt it was a snooze fest.
I think the main problem is simply that Dakota Johnson is not charismatic enough or good enough of an actor to be a leading lady in this kind of rom-com/drama. I also agree on Chris Evans being miscast, although he’s a much better actor than Johnson.
It’s maybe a bit of an unfair comparison but imagine this same film with Julia Roberts and Hugh Grant, the rom-com duo par excellence; you may actually have a fantastic movie.
Recently I’ve been on a rom-com kick and watching many of the old and new classics. Notting Hill, a movie with the aforementioned pairing, is completely ludicrous and when examined in depth the script is somewhat lackluster and the cinematography is nothing special. But when you have the equivalent of Ali vs. Tyson as the main event then nothing else matters.
For romantic movies the chemistry of the duo or love triangle is essential. Without it even the script of, say, Before Sunrise, Before Sunset, or When Harry Met Sally won’t be enough to make the movie good.
rockbier1218
1yr ago
The Count of Monte Cristo
rockbier1218
1yr ago
If these two powers enter into a non-meme war I have to imagine the west will get completely drowned by a tidal wave of immigration. RIP my chill software engineer job
rockbier1218
1yr ago
There’s certainly a never-say-die subset of true believers but I doubt that’s even the majority of the coalition that elected him in November. I think most people were voting against democrat incompetence on inflation and illegal immigration in that order.
If trumpflation ends up being even worse than Biden’s and comes with stagflation and layoffs to boot, I can easily see a new GOP coalition that unites around “Trump but minus tariffs”. And there’s a very clear and straightforward process to make that happen, just need the veto-proof majority in congress to take away tariff powers and let Trump do whatever else he wants
rockbier1218
1yr ago
one other interesting twist on all of this is that Trump is extremely old. This is not a charismatic 40-year old who has the potential to cement his rule for a decade+. Trump is inherently a short-term politician, and if he starts being a short-term loser then it’s a lot easier for people to jump ship. There is little chance he stages some kind of comeback in the future after this which would cause people to doubt if defecting now will come back to bite them later.
rockbier1218
1yr ago
Certainly possible. My prediction rests on the assumption that we are about to see economic catastrophe worse than 2008. That’s my take at least.
If that doesn’t end up happening and we instead just have something like Covid or an average recession then absolutely he will ride out the term.
But I simply don’t see how if we have financial oblivion Trump survives. There are too many powerful elites that will also be impacted and even the average GOP voter will revolt and turn on Trump if the bread and circuses are gone
rockbier1218
1yr ago
Up till now MAGA has been neutral to positive for the average American. Trump didn’t really do anything that’s impacted Joe Six-pack and if anything has delivered some wins on woke and DEI. And his tax cuts broadly benefited Joe Six-pack in the short-term as well.
So the only real reasons to oppose Trump have been “he’s vulgar” or political games like Jan 6 that democrats also played. Or you’re a woke lib who hates him on principle.
But now all of a sudden people are staring at GFC part 2 with the potential for much much worse. Joe Six-pack will get annihilated with inflation and might get laid off too. And whose fault is it? It’s 100% on Trump and everybody knows it.
All of a sudden even conservatives are like “wait a minute wtf” and that will lead to political pressure on Trump from essentially all of America except the most diehard of his base (and how many of them are diehard enough when they are about to lose their homes and a t-shirt is $50?)
There’s all kinds of fun options depending on how bad it gets.
There’s already 7 GOP senators trying to take his tariff power away and nothing tangible outside the market has even happened yet. Elon is calling other members of the inner circle retards for their trade policy (proxy shot at Trump).
Most realistic scenario is that congress just votes to take tariffs away and overrides the veto. If there is blood in the streets even a GOP congressman will be loyal to his constituents who are mailing him death threats and threatening his political career forever. And it’s much easier to swallow just taking back tariff power over an actual impeachment or something.
If it gets really bad, like Great Depression bad, I would bet my life savings he gets JFKed or has a mysterious heart attack/plane crash/take your pick.
You simply cannot survive as a politician in America if you fuck with the economy to this extent. We already see the campaign ramping up, Jamie Dimon and other financial bigwigs are pressuring Trump (first option in the toolbox) but if he continues to go full retard they will take the other tools out too.
rockbier1218
1yr ago
It’s coming. You can’t just nuke the market in America and expect to survive politically. It will take time but nothing Trump has done up till now has really been bad economically, so it’s easy for GOP to hang on because he kept the money flowing and people remember Trump 1 as a great time for the economy. But if all of a sudden we have GFC Part 2 and it’s 100% attributable to his actions he will be toast.
Not sure how trustworthy this is as a proxy but the comments section on Wall Street Journal articles was a MAGA shithole up till a few weeks ago. Now it’s full of people with regret and complaining about their investments and how Trump is a buffoon, etc. Once the mass layoffs and 10-20%+ inflation hit it will be over
Interesting. I was going to ask how these dynamics play out when the woman in question is wasian herself vs. 100% Asian. Do they still act the same, have the same preferences, racism, etc.?
And I wonder if as you point out that WMAF daughters are different from AMWF daughters. I only know one of the latter and for all intents and purposes she basically seemed like any other white girl, but the WMAF daughters seem to act and associate more as Asians.
Curious to get your thoughts here.
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