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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 27, 2024

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Numbers like 99.9% and 100% numbers are just exaggerations to make a point. Realistically though, you probably need at least 80% of the population to be on board with the idea that it's not worthwhile getting engaged in suicidal conflicts with a neighboring country before that country can accept them as a peaceful neighbor. Otherwise there's too big a chance that violent minority seize power and redirect all resources to renewed war efforts. Frankly I'd be stunned to see any polls suggesting that even 50% of Gazans think it might be worth trying to make a decent society for themselves with what they have, as opposed to continuing pointless attacks against Israel. I believe that's the point Hanania is making - the PA could officially be installed in power in Gaza tomorrow but given the state of that society they'd just be overthrown by Hamas again (with popular support) and who would declare war again etc.

Right, I'd probably agree somewhere about 80%, with higher obviously being better! And right now with the state of tensions Hamas or something like it would just re-emerge, completely agree. Eroding support for Hamas is key here, and history unfortunately suggests that the only way to do that is time and lack of huge incidents.

Support from Catholics for the IRA surged when the UK put in place internment and very aggressive tactics and reduced when the UK pulled back, treated terrorism more as a police action, and began to lift discrimination against Catholics, this led to Catholics becoming wealthier, and with fewer direct reasons to hate the British, IRA support began to drop until Warrington and Enniskillen (where IRA bombs killed children and pensioners) meant their support collapsed. Then the IRA came to the table and accepted a deal they had basically rejected 20 years before.

But there are still attacks today, fewer bombings because those take more organizations but punishment beatings, shootings, kneecapping etc. So I think some level of violence is going to have to be built in to any realistic proposal.