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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   35417 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 3, 2022

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Ok, but, again - if literally nothing bad happened to Yeltsin, why would anyone expect something bad to happen to the much more secure Putin? Heck, a literal economic depression occurred under Yeltsin, and (afaict) this didn't see him forced into retirement or killed.

Like, it seems like we have one comparable historical event and one far worse historical event - both under someone with a far weaker grip on power. An no "dissatisfied elements" did anything as far as we can tell...

I mean, I guess there's a chance Putin gets removed from power because of this, but it seems like a pretty remote one.

Yeltsin wasn’t a dictator and he had a clear line of succession. Neither are true of Putin. Also, obviously the First Chechen War was of vastly lower stakes for Russia than the war in Ukraine, and Russia didn’t decisively lose it (they even went back and won later). All of these are clear reasons why Putin would be more likely to be killed.

Those are good points. I still think him living is much more likely; but you've given me significant pause.

Thanks, glad I could be of some use.

because Putin isn't Yeltsin, and Russia now isn't Russia then.

I acknowledge the main difference I saw: Putin has a more secure grip on power. This is evidence that my examples are too charitable.

If you think something else is different that points the other direction, could you share it instead of gesturing vaguely?

Russia under Yeltsin was slumping down from a position as one of the two global superpowers. It seems to me that Putin has been trying to pull Russia out of that slump, but has had only limited success in doing so, and has incurred serious social and political costs in doing so. Russia seems stronger than it was under Yeltsin, but also more brittle. Conflict with the West seems much more serious and much more open than it was in Yeltsin's day, and played for much higher stakes.

Putin seems to be committing a lot more to this war, both in terms of men and material, and in terms of political capital. He seems to be acting as though he believes this conflict is existential, and based on what I'm seeing from Americans and the West generally, I think he's probably right to think so, certainly for himself, and probably for his country. Saddam was hung. Qaddafi was sodomized to death with a bayonet on live TV. There's ample precedent for what happens to failed leaders America doesn't particularly like. Why would Putin presume he'll fare any better?

If Russia retreats, there is zero possability that things return to the way they were before the war. The sanctions stay up. The encirclement accelerates. If Russia capitulates, it's going to get the 1919 Germany treatment, not the 1945 Germany treatment. Nothing like that was on the table during the Chechen war, so why should we expect a loss to look like the Chechen loss?

In case it wasn't clear, I'm not saying "Putin is removed in a coup" is the obvious outcome at a variable point in the future. I do think it's one of several plausible outcomes, however.

If you take as given that Putin will lose power eventually, what do you think are the most likely ways in which that happens?

The most likely way is similar to what he did last time he "stepped down": he anoints a successor. Life goes on.

I agree that this is also one likely possibility, and mentioned it above as "resigns peacefully," though I was agnostic on whether he'd retain enough control of the process to choose a successor (and whether or not that successor would be effectively a puppet).

If you take as given that Putin will lose power eventually, what do you think are the most likely ways in which that happens?

He has a stroke or heart attack.

I agree that this is one likely possibility, and mentioned it above as "randomly dies of non-window causes."

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