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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   35824 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 3, 2022

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"less likely" compared to what though? Saying something like "trans people are less likely to commit a non-sexual offense" doesn't really tell us anything about their overall criminality, which is useful information to have. Dolly's overall conclusion is that they're more likely to commit a sexual offense compared to men, but she doesn't try explaining why that might be the case (I assume that would delve into armchair psychology, implicating AGP and whatnot).

I was going off of your quote,

Using prison data from both the UK and the US, Dolly finds that about 50% of trans prisoners are there for a sexual crime, in contrast to 11% - 19% of the general prison population

(...)

Premise- Trans prisoners are more likely to be there for a sexual offense

Conclusion- Trans people are more likely to commit a sexual offense

which does not imply, mathematically, that trans people are more likely to commit a sexual offense compared to men. (It does imply that they are more likely to have committed a sexual offense conditional on being in prison.)

For example, imagine you have a base population of, say, 1000 cis men and 1000 trans people. Of the men, a total 15 commit sexual offenses, and another 85 commit non-sexual offenses (and get imprisoned). Of the trans people, 1 commits a sexual offense, and another 1 commits a non-sexual offense. Then the following are simultaneously true:

  • 50% of trans prisoners are there for a sexual offense.

  • ~15% of the general prison population are there for a sexual offense.

  • Hence, in particular, trans people are more likely to be there for a sexual offense. (P(sexual offense|trans and there) > P(sexual offense|cis and there))

  • trans people are less likely than cis men to commit a sexual offense. (0.1% to cis men's 1.5%)

I'm of course not saying that this is what the numbers are, but if you only know the first two points (which I assumed "trans prisoners are more likely to be there for a sexual offense" is supposed to gloss), this scenario is not ruled out. Therefore, the conclusion does not follow from the premise.

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