The method I described will give the correct probability given all of the information available.
It won't.
In this case, it is.
It's not.
is more likely to be 0.3
Yes, but it is not. You got it wrong.
so the estimate for t is 0.2
But it is not 0.2.
This is the whole point of the article: to raise doubt. But you are not even considering the possibility that you might be wrong, I bet even when I'm telling you the values of t in those examples are not the ones you guessed, you will still not consider the possibility that you are wrong, even when the answers are objectively incorrect.
It seems like you don't know enough probability to really have this discussion. "The expected number of heads from 1 flip is equal to the probability of heads" is a trivial calculation.
es, but it is not. You got it wrong.
That's not how probability works. I said it was more likely and that statement is correct. Just like how in your original coin flip example, it is more likely that p is 0.8 than 0.3, but if it really was 0.3 and you just got unlucky your answer would not have been "wrong" because that's not how probabilistic statements are judged.
But it is not 0.2.
Do you know not what an estimate is?
But you are not even considering the possibility that you might be wrong, I bet even when I'm telling you the values of t in those examples are not the ones you guessed, you will still not consider the possibility that you are wrong, even when the answers are objectively incorrect.
This blatant strawmanning isn't helping your case. The statements I made above about probability are correct, they are fairly basic mathematical ideas that get used all the time. If you think they're wrong, provide an actual argument. I have never said anything like "t is definitely 0.2" nor do I care what its value is, because it's an irrelevant exercise. Have you considered that you might be wrong?
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Notes -
It won't.
It's not.
Yes, but it is not. You got it wrong.
But it is not 0.2.
This is the whole point of the article: to raise doubt. But you are not even considering the possibility that you might be wrong, I bet even when I'm telling you the values of
tin those examples are not the ones you guessed, you will still not consider the possibility that you are wrong, even when the answers are objectively incorrect.It will.
It is.
It seems like you don't know enough probability to really have this discussion. "The expected number of heads from 1 flip is equal to the probability of heads" is a trivial calculation.
That's not how probability works. I said it was more likely and that statement is correct. Just like how in your original coin flip example, it is more likely that p is 0.8 than 0.3, but if it really was 0.3 and you just got unlucky your answer would not have been "wrong" because that's not how probabilistic statements are judged.
Do you know not what an estimate is?
This blatant strawmanning isn't helping your case. The statements I made above about probability are correct, they are fairly basic mathematical ideas that get used all the time. If you think they're wrong, provide an actual argument. I have never said anything like "t is definitely 0.2" nor do I care what its value is, because it's an irrelevant exercise. Have you considered that you might be wrong?
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