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From my mostly layman/hobbyist's view of the tech, I agree that there's no good reason to believe that AGI, ASI, or even AI that can substitute for OpenAI's researchers strictly within the narrow use case of doing research/development/engineering/etc. that OpenAI wants to do are right around the corner. But where I disagree is that I don't think it's a question of fundamental possibility; rather, just like with a Mars base, I see it as a question of logistics, and I suspect that that disagreement is the source of your confusion.
Recent LLM tech has proven that we can create machines that produce text in response to text really really well, and I think getting to AGI or even ASI is just a matter of making a machine that produces text really really really well. My perception of the tech right now is that it's not progressing fast enough that we'll cross that threshold into AGI, for however we want to define it, any time soon. But I think one reasonable possibility is that I'm just ignorant of the details and most recent developments that people predicting otherwise are privy to, and those details could give them confidence that we're right around the corner from crossing that threshold.
I won't speculate on exactly what you think AGI or ASI is, but certainly many people believe that AGI requires something more than producing text really really really well, which I've seen lead to disagreements about how close we are to achieving it, or if it's achievable at all.
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