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Notes -
Keep in mind that my analysis is based on the subset of people who applied for disability, and not the population at large. Further, blue collar workers with musculoskeletal problems accounted for 50% of approvals, not 50% of total claims. This number may actually be a bit high, since most of the death bed cases were sent to a special unit that I didn't deal with. As a proportion of total claims, I'd say they were no higher than 10%. For volume of total claims, the generally unhealthy accounted for the highest proportion, followed by psycho kids and complex cases. This is taking into account that death bed cases had enough volume to merit their own unit to expedite them, though since I didn't work there I can't comment on volume.
While I don't doubt that blue collar work is harder on the body than other work, disability isn't particularly common. In my current job, I defend industrial equipment manufacturers and contractors in products liability cases, and out of hundreds of cases I've handled, I've seen maybe three or four where the plaintiff was receiving disability, or had even made a disability claim, and this is for a subset of the population that worked industrial jobs for decades. You also need to take into consideration that while blue collar work is more likely to lead to legal disability, that likelihood is largely independent of whether it's likely to contribute to the underlying medical condition. People who work office jobs where they sit on their ass all day don't quit work and apply for disability because of bum knees, and even if they did they'd be denied. It's not that the jobs causes the disability so much as it is that the disability prevents them from doing the job.
Again, very interesting and informative.
If I'm reading you correctly, my updated hypothesis has also been more or less invalidated. We aren't in a situation in which a meaningful percentage of blue collar (or any) careers create the demise of those who work in them. And from previous comments, we can also say with decent confidence that "disability grift" isn't a multi-billion dollar scam industry. Furthermore, with the amounts involved, there aren't really "disability queens" who are collecting thousands of dollars per month. It's an unfortunate group of mostly honest people who get a few hundred extra dollars to get by. Based on your comments on the end-of-lifers, it also seems disability insurance acts as kind of publicly-funded hospice care as well. Sad, but understandable.
Given all of this, I'm actually, now, tempted to think that system works about as well as a system like this could. It's inefficient, sure, but it feels like it's mostly doing a service to those in need (perhaps to an unsatisfying emotional degree) and without a disproportionate drain on public resources.
I'll make the humble request again to get your input on that.
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