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Notes -
See acoup on strategic airpower.
In general, strategic bombing can mean different things:
The first one works somewhat, but historically not very well. It is debatable if better intelligence today might mean that it is more effective today.
Terror bombing, besides being a crime against humanity, is actively counterproductive. It actively strengthens the bond between the government and the civilians who feel that they are all in it together. It worked like that for the Brits and the Nazis. Arguably, a very similar effect could be observed after 9/11 in the US. Ordinary Americans who were leaning Democrat or dovish found themselves supporting Bush's hawkish adventures. (Coming to think of it, rocket attacks might also explain why the Israeli population is voting for right wing parties supporting goals far beyond what is considered normal in other Western countries.)
Targeting the leadership seems like a less bad option. But here the strategic effect is obviously quite limited. The US blew up a lot of weddings in drone strikes in an effort to curb the Taliban. It did little to prevent their rapid rise back to power the minute they left. And the IDF has bombing the shit out of Hamas, accepting high civilian casualties to take out their commanders. So far, this has not caused Hamas to fall apart. In an environment where IDF bombs have deprived most Gazans of homes and extended family members, and where the families of Hamas members are the ones whose food supply is secure, Hamas does not have a recruiting problem.
I will say that targeting the leadership worked better against Hezbollah. The pager bombing allowed them to take out a lot of the mid level management without Gaza-level collateral damage.
The power of the Iranian regime ultimately comes from the military and revolutionary guards. Sure, murdering a general or politician here and there might make it harder for the regime to pursue their objectives, but at the end of the day it is not enough to force a regime change.
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