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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 7, 2025

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And if you can persuade more people to vote for the reasons you do, then you potentially affect change. Unfortunately most voters are short termists, so most politicians are short termists.

I did some consultancy work for Reform at the last election, so I have nothing against them per se. I quite like Nigel Farage personally (as politicians go). But I heavily suspect you'll find that even were they to form a government they might not do as much as you'll like about immigration. Even for natural Reform voters the economy featured highly in internal polls. Nigel knows that.

Understood, and that’s interesting to hear. I wanted to write something about the difficulty of getting genuine policy preferences in an election or polling situation:

  • the small supply of viable politicians
  • the difficulty of disentangling personal preferences from tradeoff complications.

The former is a well known issue with indirect democracy. For the latter, put it this way: if you ask people ‘do you want A’ devoid of tradeoffs, that doesn’t tell you how they’ll respond to real electoral offerings. OTOH if you add in tradeoffs, you have other problems:

  • Are you still pro-A if it will mean all your loved ones die in a fire? Well, no, but I don’t think that’s a realistic tradeoff. If I say that I am not pro A on the survey under those conditions, I give the impression that my support for A is weak.
  • I may weight issues on achievability as well as desire. Do you value A or B more? Well, perhaps I really care about A but I believe (thanks to the same polls that have these problems) that public support for A is very low and even a politician promising A will never deliver it. Whereas support for X is on a knife edge. I therefore say truthfully that I plan to vote based on X.