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I’m sure this is an opinion that will manage to piss off everyone for different reasons, but I think the IDF is highly overrated, both historically and in its current form. It’s basically what the Russian Army would be like if they had never fought in Ukraine or Afghanistan or Chechnya, and were 1/20th in size.
Their technological achievements are mostly in the field of air defense and certain high-impact intelligence operations, both of which are genuinely impressive but aren’t necessarily going to help in an October 7th kind of situation, especially when the command and communications systems have completely broken down.
I actually don't know a ton any them so I'd love to hear why?
Their air dominance over Iran was pretty gangster though. SEAD is not easy.
Conscript/reservist army. Most of the bulk of the fighting force isn’t going to be particularly well trained. And a larger percentage of the regulars are in the technical fields like the navy, the tank corps, and the Air Force. There are only about 2,500 actually well trained shooters in the whole thing, and those run into high attrition rates since they get used for a lot of the more complex tasks. In the footage I’m seeing a lot of absolutely terrible tactical malpractice. And the IDF is doing the Vietnam strategy of rotating out the troops to fast for them to learn anything.
Decent equipment, overly reliant on tanks. Probably would have serious difficulty maintaining fuel and ammunition logistics in the event of an actual major ground war. Probably would have insufficient artillery if they could not rely on the IAF.
Poor military culture. Israel used to have a pretty good military culture but over the past 30 years they have slipped into the American/Chinese mental model of “career military service is for losers too poor or stupid to do anything else”. So crucially, you now have incompetent undertrained draftees being led by incompetent NCOs and officers. This is what lead to the absolutely horrific failures of readiness and discipline that allowed October 7 to happen.
It’s not actually that big. 650,000 reservists sounds like a lot, and is fine for the theater sizes they have fought in so far, but it would make attritional warfare or warfare fought over a wide theater difficult. Given the recent indications from the Ukraine War, and the fact that the last country to fight Iran ended up in an eight year long trench war that caused them 1.5 million casualties, this isn’t good.
Overly reliant on air power. The Air Force they have is good. But it is vulnerable to gradual attrition or sudden catastrophic losses. In the era of drones and advanced ballistic missiles, aircraft are vulnerable on the ground. Again it’s also not that large only 250 fighter aircraft. It’s about the same size as the Turkish Air Force, and smaller than Pakistan’s. Air defenses have gotten a lot better, and nobody knows how well they would do at air to air since there hasn’t been much air to air for anyone in the last fifty years. And I don’t think they can necessarily rely on their opponents being absolute hamburgers in the air anymore.
Overall it’s not terrible, and a lot of these problems aren’t unique to Israel. But I think the myth of the IDF has grown so big that people have gotten a very unrealistic view of its actual size and capabilities.
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