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Notes -
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/15/americans-misestimate-small-subgroups-population
This is probably what you're thinking of. If not, it is at least conceptually related.
People are bad at estimating things, especially low incidence things. However, people also don't generally act as if the estimates they make are true.
That has different subgroups than the one I'm thinking of, but it seems to show similar results, although is not split out by the respondent's politics AFAICT.
Yes, but I also think this makes it very difficult for me to accept this claim from the earlier comment:
There might be a sense in which it is true that people would say this (I still think it's exaggerated though; every 6 months is a lot). But almost no one acts like they believe anything remotely like this. Like, you have conservatives saying COVID is basically the flu, but then saying its fatality rate is much higher than the flu's actual fatality rate, and if you asked them what the flu fatality rate is, they probably also be wildly wrong. What does all of this mean? I really don't think you can draw any conclusions beyond "people are ignorant and innumerate."
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