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Deterrence Theory of Punishment works exceptionally well, if there is a high certainty of punishment. It's not necessarily the severity of the potential punishment that matters, though of course life in prison for shoplifting would probably reduce the shoplifting rate for the week it would take SCOTUS to strike the law down as an 8th Amendment violation, but the certainty of punishment that matters. Quoting part of a journal article here that jives with my own understanding of the matter:
Page 4. The article goes on to list a few different studies that have come to this conclusion, which I won't bore you by repeating because to the best of my knowledge this is not particularly contentious. To provide an n=1 personal anecdote, there's a section of road I used to drive that had a speed limit of 35mph. This was perceived as a ridiculously low speed limit. A driver could very easily go 55 safely, and indeed many, many people did, because why not? There were no intersections, no red lights, no stop signs, no school zone, no earthly reason for the speed limit to be 35 that anyone could see. Presumably there was some very good reason for it to be so labeled, but it was not immediately apparent as to why so most people went much faster. The county (presumably) installed a series of speed cameras along the road. For a few weeks, the road went at a very sedate pace because everyone knew that if they went over 40mph they'd be getting a ticket in the mail. This lasted until everyone knew where the cameras were, at which point traffic began to slow down approaching a known camera location, and then immediately speed back up after. A measurable change in criminal(ish) behavior due to certainty of punishment. It didn't matter that the fines were relatively minor, perhaps $40, nobody wanted the hassle.
So all this to say, while treating random acts of lethal violence far more seriously may reduce the incidence rate of random acts of lethal violence, it won't do so as long as people think they can get away with it, or aren't thinking about the consequences at all. Certainty of punishment breeds compliance.
This is very insightful, thank you.
I am reminded of listening to Rafael Mangual on Coleman Hughes' podcast. The stat he related (which made me literally rewind the podcast) was that the average state / federal prison inmate (not jail) already has over six felony convictions before they are incarcerated. They went on to discuss how this is a direct result of more lenient probation and deferred sentencing / alternative sentencing "reform."
But, as your article points out, think of the incentive and messaging we're sending to criminals. You can learn the robes of armed robbery, drug dealing, even assault, and you get to play on easy mode the first half dozen times. Of course this is going to backfire.
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