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not-guilty is not the same as innocent

felipec.substack.com

In many discussions I'm pulled back to the distinction between not-guilty and innocent as a way to demonstrate how the burden of proof works and what the true default position should be in any given argument. A lot of people seem to not have any problem seeing the distinction, but many intelligent people for some reason don't see it.

In this article I explain why the distinction exists and why it matters, in particular why it matters in real-life scenarios, especially when people try to shift the burden of proof.

Essentially, in my view the universe we are talking about is {uncertain,guilty,innocent}, therefore not-guilty is guilty', which is {uncertain,innocent}. Therefore innocent ⇒ not-guilty, but not-guilty ⇏ innocent.

When O. J. Simpson was acquitted, that doesn’t mean he was found innocent, it means the prosecution could not prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt. He was found not-guilty, which is not the same as innocent. It very well could be that the jury found the truth of the matter uncertain.

This notion has implications in many real-life scenarios when people want to shift the burden of proof if you reject a claim when it's not substantiated. They wrongly assume you claim their claim is false (equivalent to innocent), when in truth all you are doing is staying in the default position (uncertain).

Rejecting the claim that a god exists is not the same as claim a god doesn't exist: it doesn't require a burden of proof because it's the default position. Agnosticism is the default position. The burden of proof is on the people making the claim.

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By X I suppose you refer to the statement "2 + 2 = 4 is not unequivocally true".

No, it's a meta argument. X could be anything. The user argued X is false regardless of any interpretation if it's about math.


Most people in general, when they hear someone say that a person "assumes" something, infer (in the absence of evidence otherwise) that what is most likely meant is that the person's state of mind about that thing lies within a particular set S, and S includes some states of mind where the person still has a bit of doubt about that thing.

I disagree this is the case, but let's run with your notion.

Thus, most people would infer that if someone says a person "doesn't assume" something, they infer that they most likely mean that the person does not harbor any state of mind within S, and consequently, the person does not harbor any of the states of mind that are within S but include a level of doubt.

Are you saying that "doesn't assume" doesn't include any level of doubt? If so, that doesn't fit with what most people think. And if "doesn't assume" includes a level of doubt, then that's contrary to your notion that S includes a level of doubt, because then clearly S' should not include a level of doubt.

Would you say that by "not making assumptions", you specifically mean "not thinking things are true with zero possible doubt"?

The level of doubt is a separate issue. When you wake up do you assume the air is safe to breathe? Clearly close to 100% of the days you wake up you don't even think about that question, if someone were to ask you "are you 100% certain the air is safe to breathe" you might ponder the question and come to the conclusion that you are not 100% sure, but that's only after you have pondered the question.

A rock doesn't have a level of doubt, neither does an unconscious person. This can be considered a failure to adopt any doxastic attitude, but the same applies to a person who has not considered the question, which includes you most days you wake up regarding the question of air safety. Most days you just take for granted that the air is safe, thus most days you assume the air is safe, and don't even consider any level of doubt.

Thus my real claim, that most people "aren't going to learn anything from your claims if you use your terminology without explaining it upfront" (which is an exaggeration: I mean that most people, just looking at your explanations in your post, are unlikely to learn what you apparently want them to learn).

If they don't learn anything it's because they assume (as take for granted) that I'm saying something that I'm not, and they are not willing to consider the possibility that they might be wrong.

(see how my definition of "assume" is actually useful, whereas yours is not as much)