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Israel is violently hated by every single one of its regional neighbours that isn't ruled by an Israeli client regime. I don't think it is particularly far-fetched to suppose that they would actively and pre-emptively attack Iran or Lebanon anyway, especially seeing as how they have actually already done that. Their security environment is extremely dangerous and hostile - war could come from practically every single direction.
Just look at what Israel has done in the region. When you blow up a bunch of children's hands with your cool pager stunt, do you think those children are going to grow up and be strong supporters of your government? When the 12 year old girl they killed in the pager operation's family went to her funeral, they wearing brand new Hezbollah gear. Nobody in the region likes Israel - they either fear Israel and the US or they simply accept Israeli/US money to play nice. If the IDF packed it up tomorrow and joined the Rainbow Family, they have already sown a bumper crop of blood vengeance oaths in the communities around them.
Of course, that's leaving aside the geopolitical aspects - Israel is an outpost of the US empire, an empire which is currently failing and losing its ability to exert control over the rest of the world. Why would China and Russia, when given the chance, not turn Israel into a gigantic blood-and-treasure hole for the US empire (more than it already is) at the cost of giving the arabs a bunch of weapons?
I think there's a big difference between blocking food imports, sniping people who go out to fish, purposefully inducing a famine etc. and being such a widely reviled state that nobody wants to sell their food to you. Do you see a difference between locking someone else's child in your basement dungeon and starving them to death as opposed to a child murderer realising that nobody wants to sell them food?
But more importantly, what's the point of bringing morality into this? It was morally wrong for Israel to do what it did to Gaza, but that didn't prevent them from doing it. I'm not saying that it will be a good thing when Israel is unable to support its population but that when it is cut off from international trade flows it will not be able to support its population. Again, an argument against this position would be something along the lines of pointing out that they'd be able to use x farming techniques or y technological solution to fertiliser and soil quality issues.
I imagine that as long as they weren't active participants in ethnic cleansing or had a demonstrated record of opposition to it (like those who refused to join the IDF) they'd be welcomed with open arms. But you are right - a lot of them wouldn't be accepted as refugees, especially those who enthusiastically supported crimes against humanity or shot children for trying to retrieve the corpses of their family members. This would be a big problem, and I'm honestly not sure there's a happy outcome for anybody involved. The organisations that would be the Nazi-hunters of this future are making lists and recording details right now, like the Hind Rajab foundation - which is already responsible for many nations being incredibly unwelcome to IDF soldiers.
In my heart of hearts think that the Israelis should go back to where they came from, and those who cannot should be integrated into a single state called Palestine - after rigorous prosecutions for warcrimes, crimes against humanity, regular crimes (you hear about the IDF pro rape protests?), etc. But I freely recognise and admit that my preferred outcome is extremely unlikely - which is why I'm not talking about what I want for Israel, but what I think the ultimate consequences of their current trajectory is.
How does Israel survive without access to global trade networks? How do they feed themselves? How do they resupply their interceptor missiles without outside help? How do they maintain their social cohesion when the huge cash infusions from the US which keep their society together and functional go away? These are all serious problems for the long-term stability of the nation and in this entire conversation nobody has presented a single serious proposal for how Israel would face those challenges in the absence of a supportive hegemon that can shower them with blood and treasure.
Maybe I'm the streets in a kind of lab Arab patriotism sense, but the surrounding leaders would probably breath a sigh of relief to be rid of hamas as a hub for the Islamic brotherhood. Your whole post hinges on a kind of pan Arab support that just doesn't seem to exist.
I think it would be hard to estimate what percentage of the Arab world ultimately would support VS oppose attacks on hezbollah. Certainly the coming Syrian regime will have no love lost for them backing Nashar. They've been behind the killing of hundred of thousands of Arabs themselves, does that not create martyrs against them or does only Israel make its enemies stronger when it kills them? Their number one supporter isn't even Arab, it's Iran and Iran is responsible for more Arab deaths than Israel by a very wide margin.
Is Israel somehow not being sent food and weapon shipments from the US while also being drained financially to do so?
OK yes, so the plan is that the Israelis are getting genocide one way or the other, got it. Yeah, I gotta be honest, I think almost all of them are going to hunker down in their nuclear state and play North Korea "we have the bomb and nothing left to lose" politics and probably come out of it fine. North Korea even gets food aid for its trouble.
But then really I think your whole premise is just flawed in thinking being a pariah state means you can trade for weapons and supplies. Israel managed to get enough weapons to win the six days war by trading with post soviet nations without any super power support. It's not like other genocidal nations struggle to find trading partners, turkey is in nato, Russia even finds trading partners in Europe as it invades one of their neighbors. Half the middle Eastern nations have committed at least an ethnic cleansing.
No? I'm assuming that the hand of the USA in the region is heavy and currently imposing peace on the leadership of those governments. How long does Egypt continue to support Israel when the USA stops paying them? I'm not asserting PAN ARAB UNITY (though the arabs do seem to come together, split apart, come together etc over longer periods of history) - just that there's currently a major world power spending lots of money to pacify the countries around Israel, and that those countries will be less pacified when that stops.
I was talking about the immediate family members of Israeli victims. It doesn't matter which of the many groups dedicated to destroying Israel that they join, just that they join them.
In this hypothetical the US/Israel relationship has been destroyed. That was given as an example as to how the relationship could be destroyed or why the US would want to withdraw from it. But I do find it entirely possible that a vengeful US could decide to prosecute Israel for AIPAC corruption and demand reparations for all the money sent there by politicians under the influence of an Israeli organisation like AIPAC. After all, they're operating as agents of a foreign government without being registered as such, so the idea of them actually getting prosecuted in the future isn't that far fetched.
Ok yes, so you're just a muslim hater who wants all the brown people to die. Please don't put words into my mouth or claim that I'm actually saying something I'm not - I believe telling someone what they believe is actually against the rules on this site. But for my actual objection to this claim anyway - the destruction of Nazi germany did not mean that the Germans were genocided. Presumably what would happen after the collapse of Israel is either a land-grab from the countries around them or the creation of a Palestinian state which the stateless Israeli survivors could become citizens of (after some intense denazification programs).
Who? Who are you talking about? What nation is going to be trading with Israel after they get cut off from the US? It isn't Russia, it isn't China. The only potential candidate I can think of is India, and they're going to have a lot of fun actually trading with Israel. I have been asking repeatedly for you to provide a specific example of who would actually be willing to do so and all you have are vague allusions to how other nations with completely different circumstances managed it. Again, if you're going to provide an example like this you need to actually explain the points of similarity and difference between those states. Russia being sanctioned by the US over Ukraine is such a completely different situation that you can't just make blanket allusions and go "she'll be right mate".
What would possess Egypt to attack Israel exactly? Desperate need for more land that was offered and rejected because they didn't want more Palestinians to deal with themselves? Egypt is quite large, what doe sit want a slice of worthless desert far from its population centers for?
A couple dozen to hundreds of people who were family members to people that were already sworn enemies of Israel just isn't a serious concern. This is like saying America could never be friendly with Japan because of all the family members of dead service members but instead of more than a hundred thousand dead service members it's 39. Give me a break.
Common on dude, you can't be saying things like this if you expect me to treat this like a dispassionate hypothetical, you're getting every possible jab in.
You know and I know that service in the Israeli military is compulsory. Who precisely isn't getting genocided in this scenario?
You're proposing a pretty divergent middle easy equilibrium so it's hard know exactly how things shake out. I don't really see the Saudis and Iran getting along regardless of how Israel is seen by the US so presumably Israel will look to join one of those two factions. What's the US's relation to Saudi Arabia in this hypothetical?
Can we be specific about which countries are going in for this land grab? I've been over Egypt, Syria seems pretty preoccupied. Lebanon? Jordan? 6 days war take two? This isn't going to happen, even if Israel wasn't a nuclear power but especially because it is. Exactly zero neighboring nation is going to take the "maybe get turned to glass in order to conquer worthless deserts at at best a port" proposition.
Why would that be? India successfully plays America and Russia off each other, they have a lot of agriculture that they subsidize, if Israel needs food who exactly is going to stop them? You're very quickly getting out of the pariah state and into the war against the rest of the world state. And yeah, I don't think Israel would win a war against the entire rest of the world blood lusted against them, but no one thinks they would so this hypothetical becomes very boring.
Egypt is currently bribed on a regular basis to prevent it from causing problems with Israel. Also, note that I never said attack - I said it would stop supporting Israel. There's a big difference between attacking a nation and not supporting it. I don't think the logic here is particularly hard to follow, either. If you were paying someone to do something and then stop paying it is pretty easy to assume that they will stop doing what you were paying them to do. Why exactly do you think the flow of bribes cutting off will mean that Egypt is suddenly more friendly with Israel?
Hamas' entire recruiting strategy is to pick up and take care of people orphaned by Israel and the IDF. If you want to say that Hamas isn't a serious concern or problem for Israel then you're going to be contradicting a lot of their public statements.
While your point here isn't that strong anyway, I think you're being very sneaky by saying "people that were already sworn enemies of Israel" when the example in question was a twelve year old girl. If I'm making the argument that Israel's brutal treatment of others and expressed glee (how many pager jokes did you see?) at the killing of innocent children is going to destroy their reputation amongst a given people, "those 12 year old girls were sworn enemies of our country with a first world military" is not actually an argument that will convince anyone who isn't already on your side.
There are traffic offences with prison sentences longer than the one you get for not signing up with the IDF, and they recognise conscientious objectors. Every person who serves in the IDF had the choice to not do so - sure, some choices are harder than others, but if you're making the choice that service in a genocidal military is worth it for the career opportunities you know what you're getting into. Personally I'd prefer to spend a few months in prison than shoot children in the head or crush so many human bodies with a bulldozer that I get PTSD and kill myself, but I'm not Israeli so that choice isn't really gonna come up for me. The ultra orthodox are completely exempt too, so they're also free.
Saudia Arabia just came under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella and signed a pact with them. Most nations in the middle east are now extremely wary of US security guarantees because what happened in Qatar proves that they're completely worthless. My view of the US in this future would be that it is isolationist, withdrawing to the heartland and abandoning an unsustainable global empire.
As for Israel joining one of those two factions, lol. There's zero chance Iran lets them sign up with that axis (turns out when you use negotiations as a bad faith trick to bomb people they stop wanting to negotiate with you), and the Saudis aren't exactly happy to deal with them either. With support from the US cut off it isn't like they could afford to bribe their way into either of those power blocs, and they've made everyone around them hate them. They're going to have a lot of trouble shacking up with someone else.
I said that a land-grab would happen after the collapse of Israel, i.e. when nobody would be nuking anyone. Who participates would depend on which nations Israel reduced to glass in its death throes - I can absolutely see them spitefully ruining the environment on the way out.
Just to clarify, I don't think that those neighbouring powers will be directly militarily responsible for the collapse of Israel - I think that their presence necessitates an incredibly high military budget, which in turn is one of multiple sources of pressure on Israel.
Have you ever seen a map? India and Israel aren't neighbours, and there are plenty of states hostile to both of them in between. What trade route would all these goods be taking?
How long did South Africa, another nuclear power, last? It wasn't like the rest of the world was attacking them militarily either, and they're a perfect example of what I'm saying will happen to Israel if it gets cut off from the world. Right now, Israel has a worse reputation internationally than apartheid SA and their actions are so odious that there are constant, material protests against them even from countries with leadership that has been thoroughly purchased and owned by Israel.
Right now the human infrastructure of the shipping industry is in open revolt at the idea of having to work for what Israel is doing in Gaza - there are massive strikes (I believe one of them is happening today) because people in other countries think what Israel is doing is so heinous that they do not wish to support it at all. I don't have to look very far into the future to see a world that is incredibly hostile to Israel and refuses to support their existence, let alone their freedom to exterminate unwelcome minorities for more lebensraum.
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