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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32178 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 23, 2023

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Sounds like a reasonable bet; I'm happy to take it. To reduce mental cost, I'd be happy to run it on a sort of "honor system"—if one of us happens to still remember it in 2050, they can prod the other and claim their due? The current value of a VTI share looks to be $200; at the time of resolution; I'm happy to go with your preference between an inflation-adjusted equivalent amount of cash or stocks so you don't have to think about it. I'll note that I do think 2050 is a bit on the early side of where I'd predict anything happening—my "25% chance" was positing sometime probably around 2060-70 (treating now as the equivalent to 1940 or so)—but it's a good compromise in terms of keeping it even theoretically resolvable, so I'm happy to stick with it.

That sounds great to me, I'd be happy to go with 2060 too. 2070 does seem a bit late since we'll both be in at least our 70's by then haha. The point of picking a VTI share was to not lose money to inflation, but since we're going with the honor system anyways (not locking money up in some betting site or anything) I'm happy to just say inflation-adjusted $200 vs $20. If I do end up losing then I consider it a pretty cheap idiot tax.

Well, I'm probably about as likely to remember in 2060 as in 2050, so 2060 it is! See you in 40 years, haha.

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