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Notes -
If election day bumps are sometimes correct and sometimes wash out, you could predictably make money selling into them. There need to be some cases where they underestimate the real change to balance things out.
I take it that you dont like the efficient (or as I prefer, inexploitable) market thesis, but this is a relatively strong case for it: due to the political connection, many will have considered the question.
And the most considered question in this field is whether there is mean reversion. There isnt, except sometimes with very large drops, where its really about credit prices. A change from one day to he next means just as much as that same change if it takes a month.
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