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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 8, 2025

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Would a full-blown attack on GPS satellites not cross the nuclear threshold for the US?

30 years ago? Probably not. However I can imagine a scenario where someone in the decision loop interprets it as an attempt disable American early warning and missile defense assets in preparation for a more general nuclear strike, and then makes that case to the President.

Today? Absolutely not. The huge expansion of civilian space infrastructure along with massive improvements in the fidelity of both space and earth-based sensors means that we are no longer dependent as we once were on a small number of strategic satellites that could easily be knocked out by an adversary. And with the US representing a super-majority of world's total space lift capacity I think the more likely outcome in the event of such an attack would be a bunch of Chinese Satellites suffering sudden unexplained failures or falling out of the sky for no reason while the US Space Force conspicuously refuses to confirm nor deny playing any role in the matter.

Parsing US Space Command comments carefully, you get the sense that both China and the US have some slightly different advantages in the space realm, it's not universally one side with all the cards. Both have antisat capabilities of at least two varieties. I feel like their attitude right now is medium confident but slightly nervous. And it's worth noting that China is potentially only 3-4 years away from pulling closer to SpaceX, which would jive with potential timelines in terms of lift capacity backstops.