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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 30, 2023

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Russia has no reasonable fear that NATO would launch some sort of land invasion of their internationally recognized territory because they have nuclear deterrent.

During and after the Cold War both powers had credible deterrent. Yet they maintained large conventional forces. Why, if war was so unthinkable? My take: so they didn't get pushed on the conventional front until they were trapped in a nasty nuclear dilemma.

As I said: nations don't like to take chances or give inches.

Proximity of missiles mattered way more in 1962 when nuclear armed submarines and ICBMs we're just getting started.

The US was ahead in missiles. There was no way the Soviets would "win". The Soviets weren't trying to "win" a nuclear exchange, they were trying to balance against Jupiter missiles in Turkey.

Kennedy knew this: IIRC there's record of him using that exact example to highlight how escalatory Russian behavior was and he was told "um...yeah, we did that". He had to have known why Russia wanted balance (not annihilation)

He...didn't change his mind. No inches.

Russia has a totally reasonable fear that NATO is in the process of turning them from a global super power into an impotent commodities provider

They're not a global superpower, though it flatters them to think they are. But yes, they are afraid of being knocked out of the ranks of the Great Powers.

That is a serious strategic fear. Wars have been fought for less and the US would raise holy hell it got knocked down to a Great Power, let alone out of those ranks altogether. Look at the absolute paranoid and forceful behavior it engaged in when it had marginal losses in the Cold War when some random Third World country flirted with communism (Which often harmed their own people more than anyone else)

Again: states don't like to give inches.

If the US can knock Russia down that far, they can try to knock them even farther down. While I'm sure there's a normative argument to the effect of "you deserve it" or "it wouldn't be necessary if Russia wasn't imperialist", states don't want to be at the mercy of other states if they can help it. Regardless of whether that state thinks it's more benevolent and knowing.

But I also think it's totally unreasonable for Russia to expect to remain a regional hegemon in light of it's economic weakness.

Maybe. As I said: I disagree less with the normative argument. But I don't think it says much about how Russians see this (the denial in the OP was about Russian perceptions of the threat - which is a very common thing, especially now )

Yet they maintained large conventional forces. Why, if war was so unthinkable?

Mainly, to project conventional power elsewhere. The Soviets invaded or threatened to invade their "allies" in every decade of the Cold War. The US army fought overseas in every decade of the Cold War, including the Soviet-style invasion of Grenada (though one followed by a restoration of democracy, not a feature of Soviet invasions...).

Mainly, to project conventional power elsewhere.

They had troops in Europe, where it almost certainly would have gone nuclear.

Depends where. Soviet invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia, plus a threatened invasion of Poland, did not create a serious nuclear risk. US intervention to e.g. stop a communist revolution in France or Italy would not have caused a serious nuclear risk.