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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026

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Meanwhile "investing" in predication markets is something more akin to "investing" in scratchers tickets.

But it doesn't have to be. Admittedly chances to use it for hedging are limited these days, but there are examples. Houston's "Mattress Mack" is famous for running furniture sales contingent on the performance of local sports teams ("if the Astros win the World Series, it's free") and using sports betting to hedge those outcomes.

The market cap is too small for this to be practical for a lot of things at the moment, but I wouldn't want to rule out potential practical applications completely.

But it doesn't have to be.

If you want your prediction market to have a "practical application" (outside lining of the owner's pockets) be it as tool for gathering accurate information, or as a platform for hedging, it absolutely does have to be this way.

That is why I say that it is not only logically incoherent, but economically irresponsible, to treat "prediction market bets" differently from any other form of betting.