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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   32832 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 5, 2026

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  1. This makes no sense to me. What is the key difference that matters in your opinion? Is it the probability of payoff? Prediction shares are binary, so if one side has low probability, the other one has high probability. Start-up equity has low probability of success: are they in the same category? Is the issue that they hold your money until the event? We could imagine a type of prediction markets where we put shares of VOO instead of cash. Would that change your view on them? The shares are going to be held anyway, so there is no inefficiency there.

  2. You don’t need to assume that perfect information is good to think prediction markets are good. That’s a strawman if I ever saw one. You might be able to make a strong case for banning prediction markets based on negative effects of too much information, but it won’t be a strong case unless you explain why it wouldn’t be better to, say, have their players contracts prohibiting this and enforcing it.

Re: #1 see my replies to @netstack above and to @2rafa below.

Re: #2 I disagree that this is a strawman. Pretty much every justification for the positive value of prediction markets that I have ever come across can be boiled down to a single supposition; "More information is always better". If you think that's an unfair characterization, please provide an alternative.

  1. I still don’t understand your point of view on this. Why is there a difference between acquiring a real asset versus a financial asset (that is someone else’s liability? You mentioned wealth creation, but trading financial assets/securities creates wealth. Trading happens under mutual agreement which means both parties are better off.
  2. Using that segue, prediction markets create value in the same way that any trading creates value. What gives rise to two people wanting to trade with each other? Different situations in or different beliefs about the future. This is the simplest libertarian argument for freedom to trade with each other.

Re: #1 I do not know how to state my case any more plainly than i did in my reply to @2rafa.

In the conventual stock market you buy shares of Amazon or US Steel that money is (in theory at least) adding to the capital valuation of that company. That capital valuation then helps finance things like new equipment, payroll, etc... You are paying money to own a "share" of that company, it may be only a 0.000000002 percent share of a billion dollar company, but (again in theory at least) 0.000000002 percent of that billion dollars belongs to you and you can cash out at any time.
Meanwhile "investing" in predication markets is something more akin to "investing" in scratchers tickets. The House has your money regardless and all you are left with is the hope that they might share a portion the money they already took off of others with you.

emphasis added.

Re: #2. Meanwhile when you put money into a Prediction Market your money isn't going into the economy (at least not directly) nor is it going into deciding your wagered outcome, it is going to "the house" and what you do (or do not) get paid back is entirely dependent on the house. In this sense a prediction market is not really a "market" in the "market economy" sense of the word so much as a Casino cosplaying as a market.

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