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Notes -
And my point is that we should not grant that premise. In this discussion I feel like its 2010, and I am arguing against someone who claims "point of Uber is just to be an app for ridesharing". technically true, but that was only a technical goal, the point of the app was to provide service that could circumvent the existing taxicab service regulations by becoming too popular to sue effectively.
Similarly, the point of prediction markets is not to max an abstract "maximum information accuracy points" of the universe, it is to provide accurate information about multitude of things to various people for a price. Some can be fun and inconsequential ("who will be the mayor of $InsertGenericLocality"), but some will have consequences. C-suite executives and knowledgeable employees can absolutely make a profit (and make investors in their employer lose money) by trading secret information on a prediction market concerning to their employer. A government official or military personnel can absolutely make a profit and kill a military operation (and kill some people too) by trading secret information on a prediction market concerning geopolitically relevant outcomes.
In case of Uber one can argue that achieving the ultimate purpose was a net good for consumers (especially in major metropolitan areas, but perhaps not-so-good for would-be taxi drivers). If you want to make a case for a prediction market for financial or military secrets, you have to make a case that availability of such information for a price is a net good.
I grant that I was not really defining "insider trading" and "defections" in my reply, and using it vaguely, but everyone participating here can peruse all the sibling comment threads for a more detailed discussion about various scenarios.
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