Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
At first, bombing facilities and leadership is a good start. So is denying air power to the regime.
Later, as the protestors gain control of areas, they can be protected from the air.
The immediate Schelling point is removing the regime from power. Any domestic opposition could only be very loosely organized in advance because Iran runs a highly effective police state. The exceptions are some separatist movements like they have in Kurdistan and Baluchistan.
So if this continues, the opposition will be organizing as it goes. Prominent figures who join from the regime, whether political or military leaders, could play an important role if they defect.
There is the former crown prince, who could serve as a transition figure to elections. Lots of controversy over how plausible that is.
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