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Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 18, 2026

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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they fail. So far the only thing that comes to my mind is civilian aerospace. They are way behind, rely on western parts, doesn't seem to be able to be waned off them and everything is way behind schedule. And that in a moment in which the lead times for delivery of aircraft approach 10 years. The market is hungry, China wants to provide, but they can't.

Brian Potter wrote up his findings about the "China cycle" in commercial aviation here. I found his arguments convincing.

He argues the core issue is that going after Boing and Airbus is simply extremely difficult, especially if you want to go after Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce and GE at the same time: "One is simply the sheer difficulty of building a modern commercial aircraft, which is probably one of the five or six most complex technical achievements of modern civilization (along with jet engines, leading-edge semiconductor fabrication, and nuclear submarines)." There's many subtleties (Boing and Airbus don't do manufacturing and tech transfer deals with China, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce and GE don't do that either and also don't sell SOTA jet engines to China, US/EU air travel regulators are not favorable to Chinese hardware, ect.)