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Notes -
you prevent an edge from turning into an overwhelming power imbalance by developing your own capabilities. Which means your theory that they might develop AI just up until the point where it can control the population and no further cannot occur in any multi-state system.
My theory? This is your theory!
You said earlier
This, to me, contradicts unbounded development to maintain edge over rival nations.
Correct.
Now I am not saying that unbounded development is impossible and I (would argue that I) take alignment fairly "seriously" but if you look at other weapons systems we don't see unbounded development there. So our expectations should be that future weapons development will continue along similar lines. Not that that is the only course but that it is the most likely course.
You could counter-argue that over a long-enough timeline improbable events become likely, which is fair enough. But of course that is true of essentially all existential risks and does not imply that existential risk from AI is especially likely relative to other existential risks.
Does that make sense?
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