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Notes -
I agree that the isolated metric of TFR doesn't do a good job of explaining the problem. Your excellent post outlines how declining birthrates, much like declining homicide rates, are largely explained by better healthcare and general sanitation, much less than a shift in human behavior.
But time of first birth reveals the change with higher fidelity. And this is the real problem. People - women - are having their first child later and later. This raises the risk of complications and lowers the probability of multiple births, especially 3 or more which you need a fair amount of to get total TFR to 2.3ish or so.
The primary explanatory factors for this is probably a mixture of careerism, financial stability necessities (or perceived necessities), and a generally higher tolerance for casual relationships in the late teens to early 20s. There's a lot of culture war embedded in those factors - I'll let the Mottizens arm themselves however they like.
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