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This is less a claim of technological superiority, and more a claim of geography: we only care about Iran here because (1) it has oil and (2) it has a commanding viewpoint controlling the flow of large quantities of (other countries') oil. But for those, it'd be much more comparable to Afghanistan. China has many of the same geographical problems with global power projection that the Germans had in the 20th century: a comparatively small effort on the part of their rivals (in that case, the British) could control German trade out of the Baltic because it had to flow through the English Channel or the North Sea.
It's a related concern to Russia's continued interest in warm-water ports.
That is all fair. But what I’m saying here has nothing to do with technology or geography. I’m saying that the humility needed when talking about catastrophic events like this is seriously lacking.
I don’t want to indulge in speculating about whether the J36 would win a dogfight against the F35 or whatever. That’s not the point, and what basis do I (or anyone here except the VP who may or may not have lurked here) even have to trust judgments like that anyway? And that’s only a very small issue when what we’re talking about is ww3. I know the Chinese and the Americans are generally competent and that makes things even harder to predict than US decapitating leadership of random third world countries.
Someone below said that no one knowingly walks into a quagmire, and I think that captures my sentiment pretty well. I want the Chinese government to make sure we do everything we can to prevent catastrophe, then try its utmost to make peaceful reunification a reality, and have at a concept of a plan in place if shits really does happen, in that order.
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