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Notes -
In the event of a hot war with China, no commercial shipping will be going through any region of the ocean close to China. This is extremely painful to China, but it's also very painful to all of the US and its allies--you can expect an immediate double digit percentage drop in GDP of Japan, South Korea, and the Phillipines (and Australia, likely to be more significant than SK and the Phillipines), and Taiwan is worse off than even China in that scenario. US and the rest of the world also will feel significant pain.
To be clear, I agree it'd be a massive loss for all involved, and I'd much prefer to never see it happen. I think China could have played its cards differently and probably achieved voluntary unification, in much the same way that Trump's unify-with-Canada comments set back what is probably a good long-term idea by a generation. Violent subjugation is a terrible choice on all accounts.
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