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I'm not sure if you're ignorant or being actively disingenuous here but the passage on 2/14/2025 was covered by the initial ceasefire that didn't stick. So once again, you're proving my point.
and on the contrary, Lloyd's List reports that the ceasefire did basically nothing to increase traffic.
Regardless, what can't really be contested is that yanking Bibi's leash was more effective in opening Red Sea traffic than fighting the Houthis was.
Right, he could have kept the leash tight instead of allowing the Israelis to take actions that harmed his interests for basically no benefit. Israel is infinitely more pliable to American pressure than Iran or Yemen.
Objectively, the path to opening the Red Sea ran through Tel Aviv, not Sanaa or Tehran. Similarly, the path to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open ran through preventing Israel from starting an unwinnable war, not in committing American forces to said unwinnable war.
Well I would like to think I'm more ignorant than disingenuous...
Oh good point, but in my defense, you specifically said
...which wasn't quite right.
Your point is that Rough Rider "does not represent any kind of influence on Houthi behavior," but the Houthis and the US reached an agreement (that cut the Israelis out) on May 6, 2025, when there was no Gaza ceasefire, correct?
Lloyd's measurement (which only includes larger vessels) excludes ships that Admiral Gryparis might have included, but both articles did agree that traffic was still lower than pre-blockade numbers.
Lloyd's List reported in early September (so before the Gaza peace plan) that traffic was increasing, although incrementally, with August traffic increasing by 10% over July. Again, definitely lower than pre-blockade numbers, but the trend, I think, indicates that the May truce did nudge the behavior of shipping.
This might be the case, although I suppose there's more than one direction to nudge Bibi - the May 6th agreement between the US and the Houthis happened the day after Israel began airstrikes on Yemen, right?
I really doubt it's infinitely more pliable. I understand the point you are making, it's just unclear to me exactly how pliable Israel is at the end of the day.
In the short term, certainly. Over an indefinite period, as I said previously:
Of course it's reasonable to point out that that's a theoretical risk, whereas this is a real one.
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