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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   26068 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 16, 2026

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Content warning: An undercooked, rambly post with minimal editing but it's a slow news day, clearly. Also, sexual abuse, so I don't bury the lede entirely.

I recently heard about (but didn't personally review) a very interesting patient. Same Indian hospital I mentioned visiting, but now in the ward itself and not the clinic.

The most senior doctor, the lady in charge of the department, was interrogating the interns and trainees who had reviewed her. While I was standing around and trying to look present.

I initially heard:

  • The girl was addicted to her phone, and used it for 12 hours a day.
  • She obsessively made extremely "cringe" Instagram reels, and that quote is verbatim, including while still in hospital, before her phone was taken away for violating the privacy of other patients. A colleague opened her public profile and showed us. They were, in fact, very low effort and cringy. I will not get into the ethics of his decision, I don't care personally, and it was for a good cause. Everyone else agreed they were cringe.
  • She had a poor relationship with her parents. Why? Apparently she had recently made a boyfriend, and they did not like him. Her father had usually been quite doting, but even he drew the line here. They physically hit her (which is still far from remarkable in India, at least where I lived. My ass has no permanent scars but my mother sure bent me over the knee till I was big enough to risk her joints breaking).
  • She was particularly mad because her older sister had just made a boyfriend, and her parents were cool with that.
  • No, I don't know anything about the character and disposition of either man.
  • She was very mad about her phone being taken away, even if the doctors had actually been generous in even letting her keep it in the first place. No phones is standard policy, even if not consistently enforced.

At this point, the senior doctor asked me for my thoughts. I jumped, I had been thinking about a cute kitten I saw, one that had not been subject to the same teratogenicity seen in the ones hanging around in the medicine ward upstairs, as observed my myself while an intern. Maybe I had been wondering if I should pirate Mewgenics. Anyway, digression over.

"Uh.. Why was she admitted in the first place?" I asked. Both a genuine question, and an attempt to avoid being caught zoning out. This sounded... normal, or at least I would not hospitalize someone for doing this. It's 2026, even I, once committed to abstinence from brainrot, occasionally browse Reels. It sounded like normal teenage girl stuff.

She had been subject to sexual abuse, quite recently. My teacher (because I was present in my capacity as a very slightly overqualified medical student, at least in practice) didn't immediately elaborate.

But I soon learned, once again from being there, albeit with clearer ears:

  • She had told the doctor taking her history that she was very frustrated that she was in college and that it was unfair to deny her the right to a relationship at such a formative time in her life. I will add that I misheard this, she was not in college. You are being subject to a stream of thought.
  • Her older sister had caught her staring at her, in the dark, in her bedroom. I don't know if it was a shared one. She had been standing there, menacingly, by all reports. But she had not made any move to hurt her, beyond the usual tantrums.
  • Till this point, I thought we were talking about someone in college. No, she was 13, and not precocious enough to make the cut. At least academically, I'll get to behavior.
  • She had been caught talking to multiple people via DMs. While my colleague was euphemistic, I get the strong impression sexting or at least strong dirty talk was involved.
  • She regularly used sock-puppet accounts to engage with her posts, which weren't that popular. I do not really want to judge the good looks of a 13 year old, but in all honesty, she was plain. That included a fake account masquerading as her sister, and also using fake accounts to make allegations about her sister.
  • She was described as hypersexual. A trainee she got on well with said that she had disclosed kissing a boy, though I don't know if she went further. She told him she fantasized about romance and sex, and watched porn regularly.
  • There had been an effort made to distinguish behavior from fantasy. She claimed she had never acted on her interests, but desperately wanted to.

Then the bombshell: she had accused her father and grandfather of sexual abuse, on the basis of viewing porn and probably material trying to raise awareness. This was probably not the reason she was admitted (though I didn't specifically ask). She said her father had, a few years back, touched her privates. He did not do anything (more) explicitly sexual. She claimed her grandpa had once embraced her, taken her head, and rested it against her chest. That is all. She had not found it objectionable at the time.

We debated this for a bit. The general consensus, which I agree with, is that her grandpa was doing normal loving grandpa things. I do not want to accuse her father of abuse.

Her mood had not been obviously bad. She had, after all, been making reels in the ward.

At this point, the senior doctor mentioned ADHD, and pointed at excessive phone use as an example of a driving need to avoid boredom. I looked around shiftily, I have ADHD myself, and my screen-time has been, by objective report, very high. But I did ask if she was contemplating EUPD/BPD. Okay, I did make an error, it was at this point that I learned she was 13, which did make me raise an eyebrow.

She said that she was open to the idea, but the patient was too young at present (this is true, I checked since I didn't want to trust my memory more than I can throw it). Good suggestion, she told me, but people can grow out of things, and upbringing and support can make all the difference at that age. I have no reason to disagree. I also mentally considered histrionic personality disorder back then, but the same issues with age arise. I do not believe she was on meds, though I could be wrong.

I did not promise that there was a point to this essay, but I did find the whole situation thought provoking. Maybe the main reason she was admitted was safe-guarding and observation, I am confident that is part of the reason at least. Nobody pinned a firm diagnosis where I could see it. It just struck me as an example of a grey area, all the more unusual for an Indian context. You might be okay with the idea of a 13 yo girl having a boyfriend, and maybe having sex with said boyfriend. Maybe my teacher was slightly out of touch, and being on the phone all day is now entirely normal. I am guilty, though I tell myself I use it productively. Maybe being deeply jealous of her sister is a normal enough reaction to circumstances. I do not have the full picture - because I have ADHD and the ward was noisy. Mostly the ADHD.

I will, both for personal and professional curiosity, and by (imagined) public demand, seek answers if I ever visit again, or maybe just text my new friends. What I found the most concerning, at least from memory, is the potential hypersexuality, which genuinely can be a sign of past sexual abuse, even if she's just about old enough for it to be debatable.

This post brought to you by a large dose of Ritalin, after I made the mistake of taking it while too tired to actually study. I hope no one predicted this halfway through the essay.

You might be okay with the idea of a 13 yo girl having a boyfriend, and maybe having sex with said boyfriend.

I make no judgement either way but this does remind me of two situations from middle school:

On the one sex ed class we had when I was 14 or so, one guy in our class made a fairly plausible claim of having had sex and that it was with an older girl when he was 12 years old at some summer camp. The reaction was mostly "nah, you're trying to fool us" with a bit of "12? You sure started young". At no point was any sort of abuse considered. Another guy had a steady girlfriend of the same age and the only reaction was "lucky you!" (she was quite pretty).

When I was in 9th grade (ie. 15 years old) I remember a girl in another class having a steady boyfriend who was in 7th grade in the same school. Our reaction was "He's quite young. I wonder what she sees in him?" I do recall them kissing publicly but we didn't exactly ask if they had sex.

Look, I fantasized about sleeping with my (female) teachers from 8th grade onwards, it was a sex-segregated institute, and I had sadly little contact with female peers. I was too chubby and acne ridden for a teacher seducing me to be a remotely realistic prospect. But if they had been blind and demented, I don't think I'd have accused them of sexual assault. I'd be hell-yeahing with the boys.

A gay art tutor once tried and (failed) molesting me, and at no point was I into it. My parents fired him, but did not press charges as I wish they had. It probably wouldn't have gone anywhere.

I still remain a MILF-enjoyer, and most of my serious relationships were with slightly older women. Sadly, MILF increasingly just means women my age, both because of a regression in the strictness of standards on porn sites, and the unkind passage of time.

Look, I fantasized about sleeping with my (female) teachers from 8th grade onwards, it was a sex-segregated institute, and I had sadly little contact with female peers. I was too chubby and acne ridden for a teacher seducing me to be a remotely realistic prospect. But if they had been blind and demented, I don't think I'd have accused them of sexual assault. I'd be hell-yeahing with the boys.

Man, that's just weird...

that you had hot enough teachers for that. We sure didn't until perhaps senior high school but by then I was far too distracted by the girl sitting in front of me who wore deliciously tight jeans. She's also the reason why I still remember the lyrics to this song (they were written in the backside of the seat she sat in in that class).

Or maybe you truly are a MILF enjoyer. Not that I judge, considering how many of my peers are nowadays MILFs.

You had me going at the start.

that you had hot enough teachers for that.

Look, for once I'm the person grading on a curve. There's an apocryphal story/meme of a man being so horny while internet deprived that he jerked off to a smoke detector, describing it as a "ceiling titty". At that age, I could relate, I am much calmer these days, and I do not miss having a raging libido with no real outlet.

But yeah, a few of the teachers could get it. Still would, except that they've probably gone from MILFs to GILFs. It has been a while, and I am not willing to start a relationship with such a problematic age gap (it would be elder abuse).

Or maybe you truly are a MILF enjoyer. Not that I judge, considering how many of my peers are nowadays MILFs.

At that age, MILF meant women from 27 to 45. And porn actresses somehow go from "barely legal" to "MILFs" on the lower side of that range, with almost nothing in between, so maybe I was prescient.

On the one sex ed class we had when I was 14 or so, one guy in our class made a fairly plausible claim of having had sex and that it was with an older girl when he was 12 years old at some summer camp.

I started wishing for that for myself shortly before my 12th birthday, so maybe he just got lucky. Although the odds of him lying are also high, I knew a few guys when I was that age who would lie like that. They were also the type of people where it was plausible. They liked to make up ghost stories and stuff too so I knew they were fabulists.

is the potential hypersexuality,

Hold up, is teenage hyper sexuality in India kissing boys and watching porn? These people's heads would explode if they were exposed to dysfunctional American ER visitors.

I apologize for the rambly, incomplete post. A few things came to mind after writing, and a more polished draft on my blog addresses some of them.

But since you ask:

The risky texting with multiple men (or boys, or women, or LLMs, I'm not sure to 100% certainty) was somewhat suggestive. Also, I think I had some reason to think that a potential partner had been the perpetrator of abuse, but don't quote me on that.

I promise that we would not have admitted on the basis of such scanty evidence, it was merely discussed, a mistake because I was listening and I love writing. The safeguarding after sexual abuse was probably the necessary and sufficient cause behind the admission.

But people are conservative enough that just the idea of a young teen girl watching porn and wanting to screw (even an age appropriate) boyfriend would have a few psychiatrists here diagnose hypersexuality. I would disagree with them, dismissing them as out of touch old fogies who did not see genitalia of the opposite sex till med school, if that was all the evidence. Right now, I mostly suspend judgement.

(My parents were annoyed when I first dated a girl. Naturally, it was someone I met at private coaching outside of high school. Naturally, their primary concern was that I was distracted from studies. Unfortunately, they were correct: That bitch deserves blame for making me so depressed that my grades suffered and I didn't get into a very good med school. They did not accuse me of hypersexuality, at least not till much later, and that too tongue-in-cheek, mostly because I had another bad breakup and was processing it by bringing too many women home since I was too cheap to pay for a hotel. Don't judge.)

All experiences are relative to their cultures, just saying that I think lots of people stroke out on the spot if they saw my local equivalents.

I have seen and heard some very concerning things in the UK, from people of what I expect come from a comparable background. I'm glad that I'm too young to be subject to too many vascular risk factors other than a poor diet, but my eyebrows did hurt from the exercise.

Overheard at work:

Did you hear about the shutdown?
What? The whole government?
No, just DHS. Check your flight info.
So TSA is shutdown, or at least running slow, or—oh, my flight is just delayed an hour.

Business as usual. I was also unaware of any particular crisis brewing over TSA, so I looked it up. Lo and behold: this is actually old news. Nothing has changed since DHS was pseudo-defunded a month ago.

So why am I hearing about it now? Well, a month is long enough for a missed government paycheck. Which means the TSA staff, who were apparently holding down the fort, are getting increasingly antsy. Somewhere around 300 have quit. Combined with a surprise cold front, airport security lines have been upgraded from mild to moderate inconvenience.

The usual suspects are blaming Democrats: Schiff, Booker deflect on shutdown blame amid terror concerns, thousands of DHS workers without pay. I’m still trying to figure out how this is their fault, given the Republican trifecta; Rep. Collins suggests that they are completely stonewalling any attempts at compromise. I think the last attempt was supposed to be a White House proposal from late February, but I couldn’t find the actual text of it, so I don’t know if it was at all credible. Sen. Schumer naturally insisted that it wasn’t. Perhaps we’re seeing two parties sticking to the foot-in-the-door tactic.

So, how does this type of gridlock get resolved? Do Republicans come to the table first? Do Democrats? Do airlines start privatizing security, or do they just give up on running flights?

Matt Walsh recently pointed out another culture war angle in the current TSA situation. He claimed that the airports that were having the most problems with TSA workers calling out were in the South.

I’m still trying to figure out how this is their fault, given the Republican trifecta;

Republicans voted to keep it open but Democrats didn’t. It takes 60 votes to avoid a filibuster. You already know that because you admit it takes two parties to negotiate.

Yes but the core sticking point here is ICE, which is under DHS. DHS isn't getting funded because of ICE. Unless Trump wants to negotiate big on ICE operations, I predict the democrats are unwilling to fund DHS. I don't think Donny wants to make a deal yet.

Sounds like you’re in favor of not funding DHS then — great, thanks for proving my point!

Actually, I work in applied research that is funded by the government, I have research work that had strong interest from a division of the DHS back in Jan and have been playing whack-a-mole trying to get it funded since. I am just acutely aware of the funding issues and the reasons for. I think attempting to project my motivations onto your simple partisan 1D axis is a fools errand.

Your use of “Donny” is coded a certain way so perhaps I am over-reacting but generally I’m tired of the pattern where some blame Republicans for the shutdown(s) while explicitly advocating for pressing the defect button. I mean nothing personally, this is just an arguing forum and we can all shuffle around next debate

I am irreverent in the extreme. I don't subscribe to language being "coded" to signal tribal loyalty.

Idk if democrats are really hitting the defect button here, that would imply this is a prisoner's dilemma-esque game. They are just advocating for what their constituents want(in the ideal aggregate). What's really happening is that DonnyBoy, knowing full well that DHS funding was due for a refresh after the last CR, decided poorly that Jan/Feb was the perfect time to go vindictively goad democratic communities. Then American citizen's got shot by ICE... Dude could have chilled on Minnesota until after the budget was passed, but that's not his style. Poor strategic instincts, lead to poor policy outcomes.

I am irreverent in the extreme. I don't subscribe to language being "coded" to signal tribal loyalty.

Well no you don't get to decide whether language is interpreted because it already is. You don't have to subscribe to any particular interpretation yourself but obviously when we read comments on the internet we use limited information to interpret what perspective is being communicated. That's how language works. So when you say "Donny" as opposed to "Donald Trump" or "Trump" or any alternative you are obviously putting some kind of spin on what could be described in some other term. And the word "Donny" is a diminutive or even a pejorative compared to just "Trump". This is all priced in, this is how language works inherently. I'm just explaining this because this informs my approach in treating your first comment to me as more hostile than neutral.

And in this case you are in fact critical of Trump so my read seems more than justified. (Outside any other debate at the object-level about Trump and Minneapolis, where I think you're wrong.)

we read comments on the internet we use limited information to interpret what perspective is being communicated.

This is not the broader internet, it is a niche community, people's affective information appears in a continuous manner. There are iterative engagements, post history, etc that give greater semantic clarity than shallow linguistics reads. Justifications about deploying rough signal filters ring more hollow. Donny is diminutive in the sense that any more casual nickname is diminutive. Would you freak and call someone a lefty for calling Richard Cheney something so diminutive as Dick? Regardless, it's not something I hear left wing folks say either, so as a dog whistle its pretty weak.

And in this case you are in fact critical of Trump so my read seems more than justified.

The fun part about being an independent that voted for Trump in 24, is that I get to critique him. I earned that right. As I have literally demonstrated that I will move across the aisle, and am not a tribal partisan hack. Unlike a lefty who would never vote for him or a righty who would never vote left regardless of candidate. Hell, my vote probably mattered more than yours...

object-level about Trump and Minneapolis, where I think you're wrong.

What you think shock and awe tactics against an outgroup when they hold a veto enabling minority to fund the group you are using to do shock and awe tactics with, whose budget renewal is coming up, is the smart thing to do? You think American citizen's weren't shot in Minneapolis? There is a smart way to enforce border deportations and then there is the dumb way. It would have been much harder for democrats to resist on principle if ICE looked competent and professional (they still would try, but that's politics). Now ICE looks like thugs who "murdered two American citizens exercising their 1st and 2nd amendment rights to protest such obvious authoritarian brutality. The cost to us citizens thus must be borne by any means to curtail that abuse" (not my words, but that's the general normie lefty view/vibe/interpretation). Meaning democrats can afford much more pain for shutting down DHS.

It only takes 51 votes to remove the filibuster. It's a fig leaf that the senate uses to avoid blame, nothing more. I blamed the democrats for being useless when they could have removed it before, and I'm happy blaming the republicans for refusing to remove it now.

Yes I would like to see it ended too but it changes this calculus of who is to blame. “The Republicans”? Trump called for eliminating the filibuster. MAGA wants to end the filibuster. Blaming “the Republicans” makes it sound as though MAGA is to blame, too extreme, maybe they should abolish ICE so Democrats feel comfortable letting planes flies again?

Removing the filibuster is getting fairly popular with anyone of intellect. A lot of people are realizing we have too many checks and balances and congress does nothing.

congress does nothing.

*taps constitutional conservative sign*

This is a feature of congress, not a bug. The point of the structure of the Senate (equal state representation instead of proportional, longer terms, advise and consent duties to executive branch appointments, most special of which are SCOTUS judges, etc.) is that it is supposed to be the "collegial institution" that slows down the structurally populist, high variance legislative whipsawing of the House. The filibuster necessitating close to a super majority to override is a continuation of that.

Americans' problem isn't with Congress per se, it's mostly with the creeping Federal bureaucracy, regulatory apparatus (which has a positive feedback loop with general PMC culture), and the imperial presidency. The growth of Leviathan since WW2 is the problem. I don't want to see Congress becoming fundamentally more active. I'd like to see them pare back the powers of the executive branch (which they can do but most members are a bit too tied at the hip to any given sitting President.)

Then, I'd like to see a hard RETVRN to Federalism that places states as the primary "actors." California can experiment with its polyamory socialist redistributionism while West Virginia fucks around with legalizing machine guns.

Right now, this is extremely murky in actual application because of 1) The 14th amendment and 2) The 1964 Civil Rights Act and the several amendments passed on it in the intervening decades. We'd probably be looking at a SCOTUS decision so far reaching that this SCOTUS - which is conservative any way you slice it, the argument is only to what degree - wouldn't take such a case.

That's the deeper "Straussian" view of the gridlock.

It ain't the filibuster.

...I hope you're not claiming to get that view from actual Straussians. The closest thing there is to a (West Coast) Straussian perspective on the current state of Congress is that the Constitution intends for the legislature to be a dynamic, powerful branch which acts to shape the law as necessary. The Senate is a participant in that process, but a participant in an actual working process. Congress today is a castrati choir because of the Leviathan you mentioned, but Congress also willingly abdicated their power to Leviathan in order to keep their chairs comfy and spend more time fundraising.

Then, I'd like to see a hard RETVRN to Federalism that places states as the primary "actors." California can experiment with its polyamory socialist redistributionism while West Virginia fucks around with legalizing machine guns.

From your lips to Lady Columbia's ears.

...I hope you're not claiming to get that view from actual Straussians.

Yeah, I wasn't. I was just being a little cheeky. I actually detest people who use terms like "Straussian" and "first principles" as attempts to signal their Big Brained-ness.

Regardless we already expanded the executive powers to rule instead of congress.

Filibuster isn’t in the constitution. The founding fathers definitely believed that there are things that need to be done at the national level.

For this specific discussion we are talking about border security which every founding father would 100% agree congress should make laws about it.

For this specific discussion

That's fair. Regarding immigration specifically, I generally agree with you and the other posters above.

I was trying to develop the full picture, however. I am generally hyper suspicious of "if we just did this one thing" style solutions. And so, here, I was pointing out that nuking the filibuster won't actually "fix" congress.

Current country partisan makeup basically means nothing can pass with the filibuster. The government does have to govern

The government does have to govern

My entire point is that I would like this to be less and less the case.

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From a foreigner's perspective, all of that Imperial presidency stuff is happening because voters want things that congress isn’t providing.

I would estimate that 20% of the population max are principled states’ rights maximalists. The other 80% want ‘good things for me and my brothers and sisters in the rest of America’ and they want to be able to move around without risking those things. They can’t agree on those things which is why we have all our modern drama but that’s by the by.

If you dam a river and the throughput of your dam is insufficient for the pressure of the river, that dam’s going to end up underwater.

because voters want things that congress isn’t providing.

This is true. The larger point I was driving at is that voters shouldn't have to be in the position of relying on congress to provide things. Mostly, it should be done through semi-formal social networks (i.e. I hate the idea of government funded somali daycare fraud child care facilities. I'd rather see stable extended families and high trust local communities help shoulder the burden of child rearing). But this is illegal in many cases (beyond just childcare).

A lot of socially oriented programs can be described as "In order to help you, we've made you dependent upon the government. You're no longer allowed to help yourself and if you don't vote us, you and your family will suffer the consequences."

The larger point I was driving at is that voters shouldn't have to be in the position of relying on congress to provide things. Mostly, it should be done through semi-formal social networks.

...which work very well until the semi-formal social network decides that it doesn't like your face, or whom you marry, or the vocabulary you kept using two days after it was declared problematic because you were too busy working to keep up with the ever-changing list of naughty no-no words....

You're right, my recommended alternative wasn't totally airtight and perfect. I am so sorry for having voiced my tiny brain solution.

Do you have a solution? Or are you saying that the current state of affairs of relying on state employees / state subsidies to look after your children (or, you know, just do nothing and collect the checks) is better? How about when that state mandates slamming a vaccine into yourself and your child as a hard requirement?

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I’m still trying to figure out how this is their fault, given the Republican trifecta;

Republicans do not have a filibuster-proof trifecta, and Dems used that to block DHS funding, while demanding completely insane poison pills to functionally stop immigration enforcement and open ICE agents to more leftist terror attacks. Your flight was delayed to fight for this for the whole country.

From the link:

On Friday, Judge Dipti Pidikiti-Smith

Dipti Pidikiti?!

Are we in a simulation? That's like a Latino judge being named Speedy Gonzalez or some shi---

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Judge Dipti Pidikiti-Smith

Is she in this year's East/West Collegiate Bowl?

The cancelled flights have been great for our hotel. People are getting stranded and getting desperate for rooms. Doubly so with spring break; we're selling them for $300 a pop, and we're still selling out! We haven't had this much business since Winter Storm Fern.

So, how does this type of gridlock get resolved? Do Republicans come to the table first? Do Democrats? Do airlines start privatizing security, or do they just give up on running flights?

Another option: get rid of security lines. They didn't need it in the 90s.

A lot of things were different in the 90s. Apparently, we didn’t realize hijackings could be suicidal. I wouldn’t mind replacing the TSA, but I don’t think repealing it entirely is an option.

You can’t put the toothpaste back in the 2 oz. tube.

Or we're simply more sensitive to even trivial risks. We could make planes open carry friendly, and it would be fine.

Jesus Christ. I feel like that would ground more planes purely from Sig owners.

If only we had a system that held firearms manufacturers accountable for manufacturing defects, but we don't. To my knowledge Sig has faced very few significant consequences.

We do. Consumers can coordinate to avoid bad products and bad manufacturers. If Sig hasn't faced consequences, it may be because most of their products are fine or people just don't care very much.

Or because they got government contracts to mass produce a bad product before there was any market feedback.

The question that needs to be answered for this to happen is: How do you prevent any mechanism for suing gun manufacturers from being abused by the massive lobby of well-funded activists who are politically opposed to the existence of those companies?

That is a fair point, but I feel like the existing claims of uncommanded discharge are well-documented and backed up by evidence (a dishonorable mention of a case that DIDN'T goes to the debacle at Warren Air Force Base last year). Short of straight up making shit up, I don't see how anti-gun activists could abuse the mechanism if we continued to uphold those standards of proof.

As a P226 enjoyer I object. Yeah sure, no P320s shooting holes in legs, dicks and plane walls. But all of Sigs other great handgun offerings should be allowed.

Is an open carrier executing both pilots without warning, or emptying his magazine into the wing/fuel tank, or the avionics console, or taking his gun to the rear lavatory and emptying it in the general direction of the rear elevator assembly (a not very redundant piece of plane that has a bad track record of allowing recovery when it fails), all considered a "trivial risk", or did you not consider those possibilities at all? (Too many cases of gun activist fantasies running on shounen anime rules, villains pausing to give a speech about their motivations and all.)

taking his gun to the rear lavatory and emptying it in the general direction of the rear elevator assembly

You have a very Hollywood or maybe video game understanding of handguns destroying machinery.

Things change when you're in a pressurized cabin designed to be as lightweight as possible. Which is also what gives us hope for space swords in the distant future!

There have been incidents in which parts of a plane peel off and the cabinet loses pressure. That doesn't crash planes or kill passengers. Shooting a gun through the plane isn't enough.

Huh. Don't all the passengers get the bends when that happens though? Recoverable if there are enough hyperbaric chambers, but still seems unpleasant.

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You do realise that airplanes, being optimised for low weight, are nothing like your typical machinery? Handgun bullets can likely penetrate through the aluminium exterior walls quite easily (and while the idea of explosive decompression through a bullet-sized hole is bogus, the implications of fuel leaking into the body through one in the fuel tank are plenty concerning), but more importantly, the interior side of the wall, separated from the passenger cabin by only some plastic lining, is dense with sensitive cabling and hydraulics. I recommend checking out some airplane maintenance videos for reference, or any of the numerous series of plane crash investigation media for instances of how tiny pieces of shrapnel and localised fires due to bad insulation severed some or another critical control and made the plane uncontrollable.

Don't just take it from me, either: this problem was recognised immediately when the idea of armimg any "good guys" in planes became popular.

Neither these scenarios, nor the use of firearms to stop hijackings, will happen. Airplane security is pointless.

Do you not believe there is anyone who would bring down an airplane, if it were sufficiently easy? Forget about terrorists with an agenda, what about all the random spree shooters that the US gets every other month?

Those random spree killers are low functioning copycats of weirdos. Their MO is, and is likely to remain, opening fire at an elementary school or festival, not bringing down planes- see also the lack of bombings.

Probably not.

As it turns out, you can bring stuff like laptops on planes and those can make pretty decent explosions and fires. In the interest of fairness, the TSA responded to xkcd's comic at the time but their argument of "if it looks like a laptop it's all good" isn't really exactly convincing to me. And these batteries are actually pretty dangerous even accidentally (UPS Airlines Flight 6, Air China CA139, etc, from a few months ago)

They still had some basic security in the 90s, like metal detectors. They just didn't have weird sweaty guys giving you a pat down, or confiscating your nail clippers. The real security upgrade is the locked cabin doors + better background screening and counter-terrorism in general. We could go back to a more relaxed boarding process. They've already given up some of the worst bits of security theater, like making people take off their shoes and belt. I don't know how much they even search people's carry-ons anymore, I always put a ton of junk in mine and they hardly ever stop me.

Sure, but does that count as “getting rid of security lines”?

I guess pre-check is pretty nice.

Well, in my memory (admittedly it's been a long time) there was hardly any line. You could pretty much just show up to the airport and walk right onto the plane, just pausing briefly to walk through a metal detector. It's still like that for busses and trains, so it's not impossible.

Airport security basically doesn't exist as an inconvenience any more if you are willing to pass a background check and pay some money. The background check is what actually replaces the security, the money is why they keep the shitty lines for the plebs.

TSA still sucks even with pre-check, it just sucks less.

These days, at least in the airports I use, it's a <5 minute process, and the only inconvenience is emptying my pockets into my bag and putting them back in. Walk in, Touchless ID/CLEAR, get to a line of a few people on the new machines, bags in, metal detector, done. Not that there aren't absolute disasters, like Austin last weekend, but those are usually pretty easy to avoid. Sure, it would be nice to just not have it, but when has the government ever abolished a jobs program that lets them charge you money?

At Newark it is still terrible. One line to show your boarding pass to the TSA official. That official sends you to the pre-check line, where you wait to provide ID to another TSA official. Then to the bags, where they change the rules occasionally on which things have to go in and which can be separate, and whether you can wear your shoes (yes, even with pre-check). Then of course the wonderful "random" additional bag search, which I hit about 1 in 3 times.

If you don't have pre-check you'll be waiting over an hour on the main security line, sometimes over 2 hours.

I have not had much trouble at Newark lately, but I know it's usually a shitshow in all respects. Touchless ID should at least smooth some of that out if you're signed up and flying through a terminal that has it.

Since we realized the thing that has prevented another kamakazi airliner hasn't been the TSA, it's been passengers who fight to the death on the plane.

Apparently, we didn’t realize hijackings could be suicidal.

You don't need the TSA precisely because, since 2001, every passenger has had it drilled into them they're the last line of defense and that if you let a hijacking go, you're going to die. This isn't the '70s or '80s where hijackers were annoying but mostly harmless- it is that kind of population that needs the TSA, not the modern one where everyone knows they're an existential threat.

If you're going to die in an intentional plane crash at any time past that point, it's because the plane hijacked itself pilot did it on purpose, and the locked door kept the passengers out until it was too late.

the locked door kept the passengers out until it was too late.

It feels like the locked door has caused unintended consequences that policymakers didn't think of. Is there any way to keep the locked door and prevent suicidal pilots, or is that just another policy we have to accept because politicians didn't think it could backfire in probably the most predictable way possible?

Not unless we solve full self flying airplanes able to over-ride the pilots commands on a computer whim. And I don't trust the likes of Boeing not to fuck it up.

It did backfire with that Lufthansa flight. Since then they have a two person in the cockpit rule which seems to have mostly worked. If the pilot or copilot leaves then they call a stewardess in.

We could go back to the days of the three-person crew with a flight engineer, and ensure that 2 people are in the cockpit at all times.

Even with a second set of hands, a pilot can still irreversibly fuck up a plane during takeoff or landing, when the margin of error is smallest (see Air India 171).

It looks like there actually is a rule mandating two pilots in the cockpit at all times, at least in US and Europe. Unfortunately, airlines are lobbying to overturn this rule, arguing that automation is safe enough.

There are copilots who should prevent this as much as possible, but realistically what would the average passenger do? A determined pilot could dive down faster than a passenger could react.

Even moreso.

It's been this way since literally September 11, 2001. Flight 93 - that crash landed in Pennsylvania - did some because the passengers had heard from loved ones calling them on their cell phones about the NYC strikes.

It's amazing how the entire lifespan of the hijacking tactics and strategy of Al-Qaeda began and ended on 9/11

First one's always free.

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"

TSA workers should stay fired. Replace them with overt surveillance and heavily promote CLEAR+ and TSA-Pre. TSA has been an over-funded albatross around the neck of global aviation since 9/11. About time we upgraded to something automated and effective.

The shutdown gives solid political cover to both parties. Both parties can blame the other while TSA workers find employment elsewhere. Once the shutdown eases, they can evaluate whether to rehire individuals or let technology fill in the gaps.

I wish they had the 300 IQ to be doing this. Getting rid of airport security theater in favor of the tech panopticon is the way to go. We're already doing it, we might as well have speedy lines as a result.

Ehhh, you're missing the point of the TSA. It's a jobs program for the working class, much the same way the MIC is a jobs program for the middle class. Give them a purpose, some authority, and an income and no one figures it out that THEY have the bullshit email job that exists via government largess.

They could always just completely axe the TSA.

They could always just completely axe box-cutter the TSA.

Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, announced today he was resigning over the war in Iran.

President Trump,

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Directory of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.

I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.

....

Early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined your America First platform and sowed pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran. This echo chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States, and that you should strike now, there was a clear path to a swift victory. This was a lie and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women. We cannot make that mistake again.

What's most significant is that Kent is not a Marjorie Taylor-Green or a Thomas Massie. Kent served in the U.S Special Forces and in eleven combat tours, mostly Iraq, and then retired an became a paramilitary officer with the CIA. His wife was killed in Syria. Kent had a very public feud with the Nick Fuentes faction of America First which was started by Kent's public denunciation of Fuentes.

Kent was clearly amenable to an aspirational "middle ground" with respect to the tenuous America First/Israel Alliance, which is why he was targeted by the Groypers in the first place. Nobody can accuse him of hiding some deep-seeded Jew hatred because of his long and recent history of supporting Israel, this seems to be a genuine defection. This defection is highly significant and the first time a high-ranking official has described any of these conflicts in these terms.

There may be more shoes to drop/more resignations. My own criticism of Kent's resignation is that he tries to absolve Trump of blame, when Trump is neck-deep in all of this.

This resignation comes as the same day the Guardian reports that a UK security adviser present at US-Iran talks believed a deal was within reach immediately before the US/Israeli strikes on Iran.

Iran had also made an offer of what the mediators described as an economic bonanza, with the US being given the chance to participate in a future civil nuclear programme.

In return, nearly 80% of the economic sanctions on Iran would have been lifted, including assets frozen in Qatar, a demand Iran made in the 2025 talks.

The Oman mediator believed the offer of zero stockpiling of highly enriched uranium was a breakthrough that meant an agreement was within reach.

Accounts differ on whether Kushner left the talks giving the impression Trump would welcome what had been agreed, or that the US negotiators knew it would take something massive to persuade Trump that war was not the best option.

One diplomat with knowledge of the talks said: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.”

The Guardian’s report that Powell was in the room during the talks was cited in parliament on Tuesday by Liz Saville Roberts, an MP for the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru party, during an update by Britain’s foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper.

“It appears diplomatic options were still viable and there was no evidence of an imminent missile threat to Europe or of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Saville Roberts told Cooper.

“Does she therefore believe a negotiated path between Iran and the US was still possible at that time and, if so, surely that means that the initial US and Israeli strikes were premature and illegal?”

Cooper responded: “The UK did provide support for negotiations and diplomatic processes around the nuclear discussions.

“We did think that was an important track and we did want it to continue. That is one of the reasons for the position we took on the initial US strikes that took place.”

“It appears diplomatic options were still viable and there was no evidence of an imminent missile threat to Europe or of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Saville Roberts told Cooper.

America and Israel bombed Iran and they immediately started bombing other countries, so what does Saville Roberts know anyways?

Kent's resignation might be meaningful for all sorts of political-coalitional reasons but it begs the question -- who was right, Joe Kent or Donald Trump? In other words, is Iran a threat to America's interests, or only a threat to Israel's interests? Well, I don't think that's a very hard question. There's a new rising right-wing that is totally isolationist and really would pull out of the Middle East entirely but Trump has never been of that school and we don't need to resort to The Israel Lobby for an explanation. Theocratic Iran is one of America's deepest enemies. They fund Hezbollah and Hamas, they threaten America constantly. "Iran is not a threat" has never been Trump's position, even if it's the position of some of those allied with MAGA, and in this case it's not hard to decide who has the better argument.

[I]s Iran a threat to America's interests, or only a threat to Israel's interests?

I'm not certain that one can meaningfully separate these; to allow, through inaction, the destruction of Israel would invite a metric arse-load of bad karma on a country already on shaky ice after the MS St Louis.

the destruction of Israel would invite a metric arse-load of bad karma

I think it is extremely telling that this is the level of argument you have to make to support this war or the pro-Zionist position. Israel and America's interests are deeply opposed here, and to pretend otherwise forces you to descend to this honestly laughable standard of argument.

Yea. One can go full John Hagee style Christian Zionist and find in the Bible proof texts showing that Jews are forever chosen people and God will bless forever everyone who blesses Israel.

bad karma

To use religious arguments based on Buddhism or Hinduism to support Israel is rather ... unorthodox.

To use religious arguments based on Buddhism or Hinduism to support Israel is rather ... unorthodox.

Reform, perhaps

Correction and apology, belief in reincarnation seems to be a thing in some streams of Orthodox Judaism. Doubt that many Reform Jews would adhere to this idea.

Anyway, I also doubt that there is any Buddhist school that believes in collective karma.

"The bad things happening to you? You deserve it. Not due to your bad deeds in you current or previous lives, but because king of your country did bad thing 100 years ago."

I see these circular claims being repeated in every single thread on the topic, multiple times, and I'm really tired of it.

  • Is Iran a threat to America's interests?

Well, this is a broad question. A lot of things can be a 'threat', and a lot of things can be of 'interest' to America. But how do you substantiate your point that it is?

  • Theocratic Iran is one of America's deepest enemies.

  • They fund Hezbollah and Hamas

  • They threaten America constantly.

There's no substance or reason to any of this except the threat of Hezbollah and Hamas, which has lead to American casualties in the region. So lets dig into that.

America is in the region chasing its yet to be substantiated 'interest'. This presence causes a response from Iran. I.e. allegedly funding proxies like Hezbollah, Houthis and Hamas.

My problem here is that this Iranian response is used as a reason to be against Iran without ever demonstrating that the Iranian response is unreasonable or unwarranted. Since the 'interest' America is seeking and the means by which they go about securing it are never explored.

For instance, back in the 50's, Iran, an allegedly democratic and sovereign nation, wants to nationalize its oil production. (We can discuss the validity of that want, but as far as I can tell the original demands weren't unreasonable) America and the UK want to prevent this. So they stage a coup and replace the democratically elected Iranian government with an authoritarian puppet. The Iranian people eventually revolt and the puppet government is replaced with a particularly ideologically fervent strain of Islam.(The rise of which is not entirely unpredictable given it was the strongest organization on the ground after the puppet government had repressed most explicitly political alternatives) The existence of this new religious government is then used to justify backing Iraq in invading Iran.

It is then, 3 years into a brutal war where America is a direct backer of a foreign nation invading Iran, that had already cost over a hundred thousand Iranian lives, that American forces are targeted by alleged Iran proxies in the Beirut attacks.

With this being said, can someone now remark on the validity of this narrative, what a reasonable Iranian response to these events would have looked like, and what the actual interests of the US is in the region and how that interest is served by continuing this particular strategy. Because it seems like we are neck deep in sunk cost and past mistakes that keep compounding with every further action being taken.

Like, if the Iranian government doesn't fall in the next three weeks, and if it isn't replaced with a regime that is anti-China, Russia and North Korea but also pro-Israel, what is the gain?

backing Iraq in invading Iran

America supported Iraq while Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran resulting in 50,000+ casualties. Iran did not respond in kind on religious grounds, which is ironic; they may have used them years into the war less extensively, but the evidence for this is iffy (no UN verification)

what a reasonable Iranian response to these events would have looked like

Do you think attacking the merchant ships of third party nations either directly or via proxies is "reasonable?"

what the actual interests of the US is in the region

Wouldn't you agree that, at a minimum, the US has an interest in preventing people from attacking US merchant and naval vessels and that to the extent that Iran supports and assists the Houthis the US has an interest in preventing such future support and aid?

I'm pretty much in favor of a realistic and restrained foreign policy and have concerns about this war but even the most pacifistic and isolationist American presidents have sent the Navy to blow up the things of people who messed with our shipping and they were correct to do so.

Like, if the Iranian government doesn't fall in the next three weeks, and if it isn't replaced with a regime that is anti-China, Russia and North Korea but also pro-Israel, what is the gain?

Destroying Iran's capability to effectively wage a conventional war while also forging a regional anti-Iranian coalition comprised of everyone Iran shot ballistic missiles at seems like a benefit, particularly if the United States would benefit from withdrawing its force presence in the Middle East but is unwilling to do so while hostile actors might target US regional friends, US shipping, etc.

I have my doubts that things will play out this neatly but if we actually thwap Iran and Israel can play nice with all of its new friends we might actually get something like regional peace and perhaps the US can even more or less stop playing in the sandbox, maybe.

Even if that doesn't happen, it will likely give the US greater freedom in the future from a force allocation/contingency planning perspective.

You don't engage with the substance of my comment and instead provide more circular reasoning.

Do you think attacking the merchant ships of third party nations either directly or via proxies is "reasonable?"

I feel like this circular response hits the heart of my post and why I made it.

Why did the Houthis start attacking the merchant ships? Was that attack not 'reasonable' given we all known that shipping is important to both Israel and the US?

What do you believe the Houthis should have done? Why should Iran not fund their proxies considering the history?

Wouldn't you agree that, at a minimum, the US has an interest in preventing people from attacking US merchant and naval vessels and that to the extent that Iran supports and assists the Houthis the US has an interest in preventing such future support and aid?

Of course. That is one of the reasons why can't understand your position. You are defending a track record that has caused all of these bad things to happen. That then causes further problems for Americas interest.

What do you believe the Houthis should have done?

Not be hostis humani generis and attack everyone for attention. Israel doing bad shit is not an excuse to start killing everyone you can get your hands on in a giant temper tantrum. That's not a valid military target; hell, most terrorists wouldn't consider it a valid target. The groups with such nonexistent discrimination are what, serial killers, pirates and (most) mass shooters?

Both the Germans and the British used indiscriminate blockades as a tactic during both world wars. Is Winston Churchill basically a pirate serial killer mass shooter?

If the Houthis had only attacked ships going to/from Israel, I wouldn't be describing them in these terms.

They killed how many in total when closing that shipping route? 20? Compare that to Israel and how many they were killing when indiscriminately bombing Gaza and you don't have any moral comparison that makes sense anymore.

Was that attack not 'reasonable' given we all known that shipping is important to both Israel and the US?

If it was reasonable, then it was reasonable for the United States to retaliate, as they did.

Plenty of things (the 9/11 attacks, Hitler's commando order, wiping out the dodo, overthrowing the Iranian government on behalf of Standard Oil) can be defended as 'reasonable' – but if I am allowed to think that the United States meddling in the affairs of the Iranian government 50 years ago is a bad idea because it its bad consequences, then I am allowed to think the same thing about Iran meddling in peaceful trade and otherwise irritating more powerful nations and causing a regional power bloc to form against them for ideological reasons.

You mention in your prior post American aid for Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. You don't mention that Israel assisted Iran during that conflict. If it is reasonable for Iran to pursue a course of violence against the United States for assisting Iraq, is it also reasonable for Iran to pursue a course of violence against Israel after Israel assisted them?

You are defending a track record that has caused all of these bad things to happen.

Americans have had to protect their shipping since the very beginning of their nation, from the French, British, and Algerians during the era of the Founders, simply because they wished to engage in neutral trade with other nations unmolested.

And as flattering as it is for Americans to believe that everything revolves around them, they are not actually the Prime Mover. The truth is that Iran is engaged in a regional power struggle with its neighbors, many of which the United States has friendly relations with. And a very brief perusal of US involvement in the region will show that these regional power struggles create collateral losses for the United States. Because Iran is engaged in proxy warfare with the Saudis and Israel, we have no particular reason to believe that the US departure from the area would cause the regional crisis to cease, nor do we have a guarantee that Iran wouldn't do things such as blockade the Red Sea or Straits of Hormuz. In fact we know that Iran did this sort of thing in the past during their war with Iraq!

Your logic seems to be that this is all the poisoned fruit of the United States and UK meddling in Iran ~50 years ago. I think it's completely fair to criticize that decision, and to point out that it had bad consequences. But the United States did not make the only decision: Iran had its own set of decisions to make, some of them were poor ones, and that is why we are where we are.

We can think of an analogous decision, wherein we hold Germany responsible for the Holodomor because they assisted placing Lenin in power. Certainly that decision can be criticized! But so too can the mistakes and outright evil deeds perpetrated by the Soviets. It's absurd to give them no agency, and it's absurd to give the Iranians no say in their own actions.

If it was reasonable, then it was reasonable for the United States to retaliate, as they did.

Well no, that doesn't follow at all.

Morally, if they're reasonable then the solution may be to solve the underlying issue.

Practically, if you don't have the ability to stop them by force (as Prosperity Guardian and Rough Rider have amply demonstrated) then the easier solution is to pull the leash on the country you actually have some influence over.

Americans have had to protect their shipping since the very beginning of their nation, from the French, British, and Algerians during the era of the Founders, simply because they wished to engage in neutral trade with other nations unmolested.

Strange how this principle doesn't apply to those who wish to engage in neutral trade with Gaza. Blockades interfering with neutral trade evidently are only an issue when they're imposed by the wrong countries. Woodrow Wilson never exercised his right to "defend free trade" when it was the Brits blockading Germany during the First World War either.

Morally, if they're reasonable then the solution may be to solve the underlying issue.

There's not really any way to "solve" the issue of states having divergent interests, but "Iran exporting an ideology hostile to most of its neighbors" has caused a lot of grief and it's pretty clear that Israel is not the only regional power who wants them to stop. One might be tempted to suggest that removing their capacity to project power would solve the underlying issue.

Practically, if you don't have the ability to stop them by force (as Prosperity Guardian and Rough Rider have amply demonstrated) then the easier solution is to pull the leash on the country you actually have some influence over.

After the operations you named, the Houthis agreed to stop attacking US vessels, and so far have not resumed (even though the United States is attacking Iran.) This might be a good argument that (US objectives having been achieved) the current strikes on Iran are a mistake, but it doesn't seem like a great argument that the US does not have the ability to influence Iranian/Houthi behavior by force, or that Iran's decision to arm proxies and support them in a blockade against neutral shipping was, in fact, a good idea.

Strange how this principle doesn't apply to those who wish to engage in neutral trade with Gaza.

Well, first off, Gaza is not a sovereign state. But secondly, even though it isn't, any country who wishes to go to war with Israel over it may do so.

Blockades interfering with neutral trade evidently are only an issue when they're imposed by the wrong countries.

Yes, that's how it works, more or less. Blockades impose a cost on neutral countries, and neutral countries may then decide if it serves their interests to use military force to attempt to set things right.

Woodrow Wilson never exercised his right to "defend free trade" when it was the Brits blockading Germany during the First World War either.

This is true in the narrow sense that Wilson didn't go to war over it, but he did raise a stink about it, and the British bent over backwards to make sure it didn't cause substantial financial distress to the United States and avoided killing Americans.

The US choices in that war were the Germans (unrestricted submarine warfare) and the British (will pay you for the cargo they confiscated). The US choices in this conflict are the Israelis (won't interfere with your shipping, unless maybe it's going to Gaza, which the United States does not recognize as a state) and the Iranians/Houthis (long track record of trying to shut down access to global waterways).

After the operations you named, the Houthis agreed to stop attacking US vessels, and so far have not resumed (even though the United States is attacking Iran.) This might be a good argument that (US objectives having been achieved) the current strikes on Iran are a mistake, but it doesn't seem like a great argument that the US does not have the ability to influence Iranian/Houthi behavior by force, or that Iran's decision to arm proxies and support them in a blockade against neutral shipping was, in fact, a good idea.

The Houthis agreed to stop attacking the US Navy, which were the only "US vessels" that even attempted to cross the Bab el Mandeb during Trump's term. This does not represent any kind of influence on Houthi behavior because they had been offering such a "deal" since the very start of operations and if anything represents a climbdown from the US, which ultimately left the blockade in place and missiles continuing to fly at Israel.

What I would say isn't a good idea is repeatedly letting the whole world see the hard limits of American power as some mid tier power grabs control of key international waterways and squeezes while the President impotently screams and issues a half dozen contradictory statements ranging from "It doesn't matter, high oil prices are good" to "We'll bomb all their power plants" to "We'll send in the Marines". This whole affair seems like a combination of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Suez Crisis, neither of which were "good ideas" with positive consequences for the countries involved.

Yes, that's how it works, more or less. Blockades impose a cost on neutral countries, and neutral countries may then decide if it serves their interests to use military force to attempt to set things right.

Well currently it seems like neutral countries are choosing to pay the Ayatollah Toll rather than try to take the Strait by force so I'd say that's not a great sign for the wisdom of this operation

More comments

It's only looks reasonable if you create a small circular argument that begins with 'Iran bad' and ends with 'Therefor Iran bad and needs to be stopped'. Which is all you are doing. Comment after comment. At every turn when I ask you to evaluate and demonstrate that Iran acted unreasonably or had better options you either ignore it or short circuit and say 'Iran bad'.

I mean:

Because Iran is engaged in proxy warfare with the Saudis and Israel, we have no particular reason to believe that the US departure from the area would cause the regional crisis to cease, nor do we have a guarantee that Iran wouldn't do things such as blockade the Red Sea or Straits of Hormuz. In fact we know that Iran did this sort of thing in the past during their war with Iraq!

Now, why would Iran do such a thing as block shipping routes during their defensive war against Iraq? What could the US and other countries possibly have done to not have to deal with that? Maybe not directly back Iraq in invading Iran? No no, that's not what you respond to. You create short circular loops of 'Iran bad therefor military action against Iran good' instead.

Does Iran close the strait in peacetime? Does Iran not look to make deals with other countries to allow their ships to pass and not others? What a curious thing for an unreasonable country to do.

And here again, the exact same circular argument:

Your logic seems to be that this is all the poisoned fruit of the United States and UK meddling in Iran ~50 years ago. I think it's completely fair to criticize that decision, and to point out that it had bad consequences. But the United States did not make the only decision: Iran had its own set of decisions to make, some of them were poor ones, and that is why we are where we are.

It's just crazy that you do this again and again. What were these decisions? Where did America offer or facilitate better alternatives? If America caused the conflict to begin with by attempting to strongarm the Iranians for their oil, and then follows that up with a coup, then transitions into directly backing a full scale invasion into Iran, and in the fallout of that 8 year war never once takes a step back to deescalate or acknowledge what has transpired then how on earth can the Iranian response to this America made mess be a relevant cause towards any further escalating action against Iran? If you make a geopolitical blunder, the correct course of action is to accept the loss. Not constantly double down on it and then point to the negative fallout your failures caused as a further reason to engage in more failures.

We can think of an analogous decision, wherein we hold Germany responsible for the Holodomor because they assisted placing Lenin in power. Certainly that decision can be criticized! But so too can the mistakes and outright evil deeds perpetrated by the Soviets. It's absurd to give them no agency, and it's absurd to give the Iranians no say in their own actions.

Communism bad therefor Operation Barbarossa good? I agree that this is analogous to what the US is doing. I am asking you to consider why Germany returned Lenin with millions in cash, what the fallout of that decision was and to consider that further escalation of warfare was a bad decision for everyone.

It's only looks reasonable if you create a small circular argument that begins with 'Iran bad' and ends with 'Therefor Iran bad and needs to be stopped'.

I don't know that "Iran bad" really matters, does it? Iran is, like, a little bad, sure. You seem to want to boil this down to "Iran good/bad, US bad/good" – both countries have actually in real life done rotten things and the US or Iran being a better or worse country than the other doesn't mean that the way they have conducted themselves in these particular circumstances is wise. I don't really think it was wise of the US to meddle in Iran's government, that doesn't mean it was wise of Iran to poke the States.

You create short circular loops of 'Iran bad therefor military action against Iran good' instead.

Please note, for the record, that contrary to your suggestion, I've expressed skepticism about US military action against Iran. You've expressed skepticism about US "interest" as regards Iran's conduct and I am trying to explain the US interest to you (poorly, I guess.)

At every turn when I ask you to evaluate and demonstrate that Iran acted unreasonably or had better options you either ignore it or short circuit and say 'Iran bad'.

What would meet your threshold for unreasonable behavior? Lying to the IAEA about their past nuclear aspirations, thus undermining the JCPOA?

The truth is that two countries can both act fairly reasonably and come into conflict anyway.

What could the US and other countries possibly have done to not have to deal with that? Maybe not directly back Iraq in invading Iran?

What did Japan, Cyprus, Spain, South Korea, Panama, Greece, Liberia, Pakistan, India, the Bahamas, Romania, Denmark, the Maldives, or Singapore ever do to support Iraq?

I don't even think blockades are particularly evil – like, you're at war with Iraq, you've gotta do what you've gotta do – but are you insisting that Japanese-flagged ships in some moral sense deserve to be attacked by Iran? Or that, just because Iran has decided it will help it in its war if it attacks neutral shipping, that the neutral shipping just has to agree to that?

What were these decisions? Where did America offer or facilitate better alternatives?

The United States did not in any sense make them attempt to procure nuclear weapons, lie to the IAEA about their attempts to procure nuclear weapons, fund Shiite proxy forces that attacked American servicemen in Iraq, attack American vessels, fund third parties that attacked American vessels, attempt to assassinate the President of the United States, assassinate Iranian exiles abroad, purge its own military, fund terrorist groups that take citizens of foreign countries hostage and/or murder them, kill large numbers of their own people, or generally give off such bad vibes that the Russians worked collaboratively with the Americans to prevent them from getting access to nuclear material and repeatedly refused to deliver advanced weapons they wanted access to.

Some of these decisions were worse than others from a practical standpoint, some of them were arguably pretty defensible, but they were all made by Iran.

If you make a geopolitical blunder, the correct course of action is to accept the loss.

I do agree that we should not have facilitated the rise of the Ayatollahs in Iran or done anything in 1953.

never once takes a step back to deescalate or acknowledge what has transpired

This isn't true at all, President Obama specifically acknowledged the 1953 coup and made clear steps to deescalate with Iran by getting involved in JCPOA in the first place.

I am asking you to consider why Germany returned Lenin with millions in cash, what the fallout of that decision was and to consider that further escalation of warfare was a bad decision for everyone.

Germany made a massive, horrific mistake sending Lenin in with millions in cash. Lenin promptly betrayed them, and if Germany had launched a proper invasion of Russia afterwards and removed him from power (as they considered doing, and as Lenin practically dared them to do) they would likely have prevented innumerable deaths in the USSR. It's deeply unfortunate that they did not.

Whether or not that situation is analogous to the US and Iran, I don't know. But the lesson from Lenin is "don't put an ideologue in power, and if you do, take him out while he is still weak or his troops will rape all of your daughters."

I don't know that "Iran bad" really matters, does it? Iran is, like, a little bad, sure. You seem to want to boil this down to "Iran good/bad, US bad/good" – both countries have actually in real life done rotten things and the US or Iran being a better or worse country than the other doesn't mean that the way they have conducted themselves in these particular circumstances is wise. I don't really think it was wise of the US to meddle in Iran's government, that doesn't mean it was wise of Iran to poke the States.

It's incredible that you wrote all this just to say 'Iran bad' again.

You've expressed skepticism about US "interest" as regards Iran's conduct and I am trying to explain the US interest to you

That's not correct. The point I'm making is that the hostile actions taken by Israel and the US have not served the interests of the US in the region.

What would meet your threshold for unreasonable behavior? Lying to the IAEA about their past nuclear aspirations, thus undermining the JCPOA?

That would be unreasonable behavior depending on the extent of the lies, when they were made, their geopolitical situation at the time when the research was being done. But considering their neighbor state, Israel, hasn't even signed the NPT and the hostilities between them and Iran, not to mention Iraq's use of chemical weapons and their own nuclear weapons research during a time they were being supported by the US in invading Iran, I'm hesitant to say that the US is in a position to leverage that as a reason.

When did these lies get uncovered and how did they undermine the JCPOA? As far as I've understood things, Iran was in compliance and that this was repeatedly verified up until the Trump admin invalidated the agreement.

but are you insisting that Japanese-flagged ships in some moral sense deserve to be attacked by Iran? Or that, just because Iran has decided it will help it in its war if it attacks neutral shipping, that the neutral shipping just has to agree to that?

No. I'm saying US interest and the interest of nations that depend on the US are hurt by the actions of the US in the region and that the response they get from Iran is entirely predictable.

The United States did not in any sense make them attempt to

Yes they did. At every turn the US forced Iran's hand. At every point of escalation Iran had to match it or get destroyed. You can not have a clearer line drawn in the sand than when chemical weapons are used against your people. There is no coming back from that. To act as if Iran was unreasonable when it started funding and arming proxies in the region after such a terrible war is a joke.

The one time the US offered a deal to the Iranians they signed it and stood by it until the US invalidated it. As you correctly point out, Obama did indeed facilitate that. And despite claims that it was too good of a deal for Iran, there was a host of nations that disagreed.

I do agree that we should not have facilitated the rise of the Ayatollahs in Iran or done anything in 1953.

This I find curious. Why? Would continued access to very cheap oil not be of benefit to the US?

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is Iran a threat to America's interests, or only a threat to Israel's interests?

They were always a threat to America's interests, just a matter of "how much." Israel aside, they've funded terrorism, provided arms to Russia for use in Ukraine, and threatened to build nukes. But they've been doing that kind of thing for decades. The real question is if the water's gotten hot enough for the frog to jump out. As Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have shown us, war can be expensive and fail to actually get you the thing you wanted despite "winning" it. Or just make the problem worse.

I'm not crying for the Ayatollah, but I'm not seeing the plan of what we're actually going to accomplish by the end of this or how. Mostly I'm just noting the irony of Don the Dove. And laughing at how Trump can't get any of America's allies on board after calling them deadbeats.

Joe Kent or Donald Trump?

Which Donald Trump? The one who said starting a war with Iran is done because you're bad at deal making?. Or the Trump who promised on election night we would have no new wars? Is it the Trump who claimed last year that Iran nuclear efforts were set back multiple years from the strikes then but now they're just weeks away as Israel always claims? How about the Trump who claims we already won and the strait is open?

Which one is right here?

Theocratic Iran is one of America's deepest enemies. They fund Hezbollah and Hamas, they threaten America constantly.

Those groups hate the US, but we're on the other side of the planet with much better armies. Especially Hamas, the idea that they meaningfully threaten the average American at all is laughable. Hamas is an Israeli problem, and if it wasn't for the immense Jew lobby we would be easily dismissing it as normal middle east nonsense.

Look, I think we can all agree that this open letter about nation-state disinformation is completely credible until 50 more intelligence experts sign it.

But more seriously, why can't this person just read too much 4chan?

I don’t know enough about the guy to know if he is doing this for principled reasons, but this makes me confident that the war is going very badly and that the administration is either going to capitulate, or be forced to endure a long and costly affair. In either case it’s good for this individuals long term career to distance himself from the whole affair. Getting ahead and blaming Israel is also smart: if the conflict goes poorly blaming Israel is a political no brainer for any possible democrat and maybe even (with greater difficulty due to the evangelicals in the coalition) for a republican.

Getting ahead and blaming Israel is also smart

Yup. Few people among MAGA who are against the war are willing to admit that Trump is personally enthusiastic about it. If POTUS says no, there's nothing the Israeli lobby can do to force his hand.

If POTUS says no, there's nothing the Israeli lobby can do to force his hand.

Except coach helpful idiots in the administration extensively to nudge Trump into saying "yes", which worked!

https://archive.ph/YLlgF

this makes me confident that the war is going very badly

A US war going "very badly" with a power like Iran looks like losing a carrier, or an air wing, or multiple surface ships. All of which could still potentially happen (surface ships are pretty vulnerable to mines in particular).

Remember that the US has had several ships severely damaged in past operations in the Gulf (USS Samuel B. Roberts, USS Princeton, USS Stark) and lost a number of aircraft in the Persian Gulf War. Those sorts of losses are table stakes for a big war like this and the fact that the US hasn't seemed to lose a single aircraft to Iranian fire indicates that the war is going better from a purely military point of view than e.g. the Persian Gulf war.

Well, from the Guardian article you link:

Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

Ok, so Iran offered this great deal where they concede on everything except the most important point that proves they're actually following through on their concessions -- why won't mean evil Donald Trump and the Israel Lobby do a deal?

The most important point was on enrichment and the treatment of the highly enriched stockpile, which Iran had conceded and was why those involved in the process, other than Witkoff and Kushner, thought a deal was within reach. And diplomats involved with the talks said Witkoff and Kushner were regarded as Israeli assets. So yeah the consensus among everyone involved except Witkoff/Kushner seems to have been:

  • No imminent threat
  • Major concessions put a deal within reach

"Iran will stop enrichment they just won't allow inspectors in their country to prove they aren't doing enrichment. (They can't do enrichment anyways because US bombs destroyed their capacity to do enrichments, but bombs don't work and are a bad idea.)"

Please explain why this is evidence that Kushner and Witkoff were incorrect, that Iran is a good boy who was turning his life around, and that we should actually take the word of an anonymous official in a Guardian Article that Witkoff and Kushner are instead traitors manipulating America for their own sectarian benefit.

Trump of course immediately goes to his classic method of "just insult anyone who disagrees with you on anything" https://x.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/2033939188064702746

“I always thought he was weak on security.”

Either he knowingly put someone "weak on security" in charge of counterterrorism efforts, or he's a lying bullshitter who just makes shit up about you if you ever upset him.

Kent goes above and beyond trying to paint over it being the president's own choices and he still gets treated this way, cause of course.

We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets

Huh what interesting names to be Israeli assets, crazy coincidence I suppose. I wonder if Witkoff was wearing the pager he was apparently given by Mossad during these discussions with Trump

Kent goes above and beyond trying to paint over it being the president's own choices and he still gets treated this way, cause of course.

Yes because that's how that works. What is Trump supposed to say, "Maybe Kent has a point maybe I have been duped and lied to?" Don't be ridiculous. Trump's criticism is extremely mild here, which is about what you deserve when you leave with a big dramatic announcement while at least not criticizing the boss in harsh terms. But what exactly did you expect? Kent could have left quietly, he didn't have to put out a big statement saying, Donald Trump made a huge mistake, let's consume a news cycle with a high-profile resignation about how Donald Trump made a huge mistake. You resign in situations like this for your own sense of integrity and maybe the hope that this stores up goodwill for some other political endeavor in the future. That's all priced in to what it means to resign for reasons of conscience. If anything "he was weak on security" is about on the same level as "Trump was duped" -- which is to say this is not so far an escalation on Trump's part and this is just how men disagree with each other.

How about "Kent is allowed to have his disagreements, but I believe he is wrong here" instead of saying that Kent is so terrible at the job Trump nominated him for that it was always known, even before the nomination. There are a lot of ways to part in business and government without being an asshole are there not?

This isn't a dichotomy between "say nothing" or "insult your former employee". Kent was respectful and in return he gets trash talked and smeared.

Quite obviously Trump is a total asshole though so he is hardly going to respond in the way that you or I would prefer. It's not unreasonable to criticise him on these grounds, but to criticise him for lying, bullying, being an asshole, believing in conspiracy theory, not being long-term, etc etc is simply going to be water off a duck's back to his supporters because those traits are his entire thing.`

The only way to get through is to show that he is weak.

Either he knowingly put someone "weak on security" in charge of counterterrorism efforts, or he's a lying bullshitter who just makes shit up about you if you ever upset him.

Isn't this what Trump and Trump supporters actually want you to think though – that Trump is a lying bullshitter who will dunk on you if you upset him, regardless of the truth/falsity/merits of the case? That way he can build a coalition that maintains loyalty and enables him to use his bully pulpit to ram things through in a way others could not, because they are afraid to oppose him. That is how his whole operation works. If he didn't lie and bullshit, it would be possible for his opponents to use reason and evidence to combat his insults, which would defang them significantly. They have to be regarded as insult theatre, not grounded in reality, to act as effective in/out-group markers.

I would have thought that MAGA supporters would at least tacitly accept this characterisation, though I confess they sometimes surprise me.

I disagree about characterizing it as lying, but yeah, the simple statement that his insults don't really mean much, and are more reflective of whether he perceived their target as loyal or disloyal than of their actual merits, is uncontroversial.

Trump is in full bullshitting mode, lying and contradicting himself every other sentence. Yesterday he said he was preparing to announce a grand naval Coalition to re-open the Straits, today he says nobody is coming and he doesn't need them. Yesterday he said he talked to a former President who disclosed to Trump that the president regretted not attacking Iran like Trump did. A claim that was promptly disputed by every single living President. Most likely he was talking to AI George Washington, who happened to completely agree with Glenn Beck's support for attacking Iran.

Yesterday he said he talked to a former President who disclosed to Trump that the president regretted not attacking Iran like Trump did. A claim that was promptly disputed by every single living President.

This is just "he said she said". None of the presidents even denied it as such, it was just statements from their aides. Do you feel even a little dishonest characterizing this in the maximally negative way while yourself complaining about bullshit and lies?

I kind of assumed it wasn't a president of the USA.

Funniest option is if he was talking about Maduro.

They should really watch the WBC final togehter.

Does anyone have a place where people in favor of this war are discussing it? I’m struggling to find anybody who genuinely thinks it’s a good idea.

I'd think it was a good idea, if we were going to secure access to Iranian oil and cut off Chinese access. My view is that we might be (but aren't definitely) heading towards a major global conflict along the lines of WW3 and securing resources and regions ahead of time is one of our smartest options. But I don't think that's what we're doing here.

I haven't really seen one, because defending the Trump administration's actions here requires a lot of guesswork as to their ultimate goals. There's a lot of "they could" or "they might" or "maybe they will" hedging involved. Trump and Hegseth have not communicated a clear plan to the public, so rooting for its success means assuming there are more moves coming that will deliver success.

I pray nightly that such a plan does exist and will succeed. The better outcome by far for my family at home and abroad will be if this results in the transition from an evil isolated clerical Iranian state to a modern open Iranian state that can participate in the global economy. Even better: 52nd state, after Venezuela won 51st in the WBC.

But prayer isn't much of a strategy, and it's definitely a pretty poor argument, so where you see open debate at all you're seeing a lot of "don't be a Negadelphian" type discourse or flameouts from pro-war commenters.

I mean support is still reasonably broad. I saw stats suggesting somewhere in the range of 80-85 percent of Republicans are down.

Most of the internet continues to have an anti-Trump/Republican bias that doesn't change. So you'd expect to have trouble with pro-war discourse.

Witch havens like here are stuffed with people with deeply unconventionally views (die hard anti-intervention folks and anti-jew posters for one) and are not representative of the general Republican field.

I'm personally for the war and found the experience supporting it here to be not very rewarding, I imagine plenty of others have similar thoughts.

I for one would be quite interested in why you support the war. The information environment is bad right now, so I value getting perspectives which disagree from my own that I am quite confident aren't from a bot.

There are several justifications for this war that strike me as plausible, but I have no idea which ones (if any) are load-bearing among supporters e.g.

  1. Iran was getting quite close to nukes, and negotiations were not working.
  2. Iran killed a lot of protestors recently, and the delay in military action was just because it takes time to get carrier groups across the planet.
  3. We do these things not because they are easy, but because we thought they would be easy (or even "actually, we still think it'll be easy").
  4. Iran has been a destabilizing factor across the middle east for decades, and we'd have to deal with it eventually, and now is a better time than most because [reasons]
  5. We are allied with Israel, and Israel attacked Iran, therefore we had to enter alongside them in order to maintain the alliance.
  6. Something else entirely.

Are any of these close?

I'm in favor of this war with Iran.

I think #1-4 are great reasons. Additionally I would add setting the precedent that if you even think about using development of nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip we'll kick your ass.

Also it's generally good if we remind the world that we still have the will and ability to beat the absolute shit out of regimes that are annoying.

What would you expect to see, looking back from 2030, in worlds where the war went well and accomplished what you were hoping it would? What would instead make you think the war was a mistake, in retrospect?

Obviously on the flip side of that, the modal "no war, and it went badly" world probably looks to me like "Iran got nukes, and used them".

I don't think the outcome determines whether or not the action taken today means it's a mistake or not.

But I get the spirit of the question.

Went well: Iran has a revolution and re-establishes a stable constitutional monarchy.

Less well: becomes a bombed out basket case like Syria and can't really threaten anyone geopolitically and is only a drain on our adversaries if they want to help at all.

Bad: we get bored or lose our nerve and pull out and the Muslim theocrats re-affirm control and get nukes.

Personally, as a luke-warm supporter of the war, nos. 2-4 resonate with me, with a side-dish of "Israel probably told us their intelligence had penetrated the IRI governance and internal security structure enough to be able to achieve meaningful attrition/disorganization of regime-loyal elements."

Like, apparently things are so crazy that Mossad agents are calling individual district commanders of the Basij and warning them to stand down or get droned.

Yes some combination of those, to expand on a few reasons to go about this (not that I believe in all of them):

-The expression of the power of the United States has been inappropriately curtailed for too long, the most straightforward example of this is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which likely only happened because of the Biden administrations weakness. Showing off reaffirms the U.S.'s superpower status and likely prevents all kinds of bad outcomes. China's fans like to make claims but realistically every military in the world is shitting their pants looking at this and Venezuela. Later losing for political reasons will not change this. The whole world benefits from U.S. lead global stability and this affirms our capacity.

-Israel can probably be considered something of an albatross but it is a key ally, and was one when we needed it. We shouldn't abandon them. Additionally coordinating with Israel and the other countries in the area is more or less bringing everyone in the region into the U.S.'s sphere of influence. Unclear if this will be durable once Iran and proxies are gone, but it is a thing, and the world is probably better off if we transform the religious regimes into klepto-authoritarian ones. This also is a boon against China, as Venezuela was.

-Oil (long term stability, not short term obviously).

-Morals. The death of the protestors and general oppression is not good. Anyone who thinks they would stop the Nazis but isn't stopping Iran needs to be asking themselves hard questions. And - while it is deeply tied to his ego (b/c ignoring threats), people who know Trump will seriously and probably correctly point out that killing the protestors made him mad and is a big part of what made him pull the trigger. Lots of people treat Trump like a character and not an actual person, but he has been consistent in this, and he is of a generation that that was deeply impacted by the hostage crisis.

-We've been (essentially) at war with Iran for decades, to some extent increasingly. Asymmetric options like terrorism, cyberattacks, drones are only going to be increasing in danger. The country has threatened to kill our president. People with intelligence backgrounds I know have frequently emphasized Iran as one of the biggest threats, and people who played in the sandbox have a lot of problems with them. You don't let someone keep punching you indefinitely, especially if they are probing for the right spot for David to kill Goliath.

-Nukes. Absolutely fucking not. Regardless of how close they were in reality their response to being attacked makes it pretty clear that Iran actually getting nuclear weapons would represent an existential threat to global stability. People emphasize closeness but that isn't the right question, when can we actually stop them is the right question, how close is just political justification.

-Speaking of when is the right time, it's pretty likely now. The regime is going through a lot of political and economic turmoil and waiting might have panned out, but if they survive the clearly increasing missile and drone capacity pretty readily substitutes for Nukes in a MAD scenario (at least for the global economy). If our intervention ends out being bad, then that's evidence waiting while they get stronger would have been even worse.

Importantly how real the threat of the last two is is not going to be something people will actually be able to know unless a credible leak happens, and likely only in the affirmative.

Ultimately this is pretty likely to be a "bad idea" in the sense it is going to be a shit show, but that doesn't mean it isn't necessary to do the hard thing.

In the nicest possible way, a lot of these justifications seem deeply hypocritical and self-serving.

The whole world benefits from U.S. lead global stability and this affirms our capacity.

I am glad to be told this by my benevolent overlord.

Oil (long term stability, not short term obviously).

America, unlike Iran, famously never uses its dominance of key global markets to get its way /s

The country has threatened to kill our president.

You have killed their president! And let us not forget that America created the Taliban, supports Kurdish rebels, and almost certainly aids and abets Mossad campaigns of sabotage and assassination in Iran. There is no possible way that America can present itself as a principled objector to asymmetric warfare.

Iran actually getting nuclear weapons would represent an existential threat to global stability

It's weird how unstable American global stability feels. More to the point, this is precisely the kind of behaviour that spurs people to make nukes. It's now absolutely undeniable that any country who doesn't wish their cities razed and their leaders black-bagged when America feels like it, needs nukes that aren't controlled by America. Even the UK Labour party now supports getting a new nuclear deterrent that's not American-controlled. These people were unilateral abolitionists 5 years ago! America eying European and Canadian territory and licking their lips doesn't help even slightly.

If our intervention ends out being bad, then that's evidence waiting while they get stronger would have been even worse.

'If this goes badly, that makes it even more important to do it!' That's a Kafka trap.

The moral argument I give you, but taking that seriously seems to demand that:

  1. America invades every country that represses its citizens and slaughters protestors. Lots of candidates there, starting with the Saudis and quite possibly including Israel. I don't get the feeling that you, America, or the rest of the world actually wants this.
  2. America's interventions actually make these people's lives better in ways that they appreciate. Not only is this kind of nation-building very much against Trump's stated intentions, but I frankly don't see how you get there from here.

'If this goes badly, that makes it even more important to do it!' That's a Kafka trap.

These are talking points not fully fleshed out arguments, but I find the quality of discussion on this latest conflict to be far below what I usually see here.

Example: "Rubio said Israel dragged us into this war." No. Just no.

And as to this specific point, I should not need to write a full length essay in order for you to be able to connect the dots here. It's not a Kafka trap, it's an army sitting outside a castle building siege weapons shouting "when these are done are we'll kill you all with these weapons." You attack before they are done, and "wow that was fucking close."

I understand that a lot of people are using this conflict to funnel anti-Trump, American, and Jew feelings, but a lot of people are actively cheering for America to lose and to support Iran, a country that is recently accused of killing tens of thousands of its own population and actively, joyfully supports global terrorism.

Likewise the U.S. isn't an amazing hegemon, but people cheering for China or Russia to take over? Jesus Christ.

It's not a Kafka trap, it's an army sitting outside a castle building siege weapons shouting "when these are done are we'll kill you all with these weapons." You attack before they are done, and "wow that was fucking close."

Alternatively, it's seeing a big fortress, choosing to attack it directly from the front, taking heavy casualties, failing to take the fortress and then going "Whew, we sure took heavy casualties but if we had waited longer for them to improve their defenses then we would have lost even harder" while failing to consider the possibility of attacking from a less defensible angle or even avoiding the fortress entirely.

Iran is an aggressor and has been for decades, they are very upfront and explicit about some aspects of it, and other aspects are very well understood by those paying attention (like cyberattacks, proxies).

This is not North Korea that utilizes some strategic ambiguity for face saving purposes.

Iran and its proxies have gotten very good at using gaps in Western cultural thinking to engage in violence without triggering an immune response.

Ultimately this is a defensive war and needs to be modeled as such - Iran is an attacker who is attacking now, was attacking previously, and stated they will attack again in the future.

Thing is, you are fundamentally a patriotic American at your core and you know in your heart that yours is the best country even if it's not perfect. As you should! Moderate patriotism is a virtue. But it means you cannot genuinely empathise with people like me who are looking at the behaviour of America and Americans right now and getting really creeped out.

My history of posts on this site is available for you to make up your own mind, but 10 years ago I would have classed myself as definitely pro-American. The Americans weren't always perfect, there was Iraq, they had the usual imperial tendency to have difficulty distinguishing their personal interests from the interests of the world, but they did their best and there were much worse people out there.

I got rather more dubious about America's social and economic dominance once wokeness and especially BLM came in: race relations in the UK were never perfect but I didn't like watching them become a carbon-copy of America's, right up to and including the 'hands up, don't shoot' slogan when police in the UK don't have guns. Trump and the American Right were fighting hard though, and things did indeed turn the corner, and I was very pleased to see it. Again, please read my posting history.

I went off Israel in a big way after Oct 7 when the biggest contingent of pro-Israelis on this site started just outright saying, 'look, it's time to exterminate the Palestinians now'. I don't want to huff and puff on the internet, and I don't like the Palestinians or Hamas either, but I was genuinely shocked at the number of people who seemed to be A-OK with campaigns of racial extermination as long as it was their guys doing the exterminating.

Likewise, a few months ago, when Trump suddenly decided that he wanted Greenland, the sovereign territory of an ally and perhaps the least woke country in Western Europe, I was horrified to see a big contingent of Americans on this site with massive grins on their faces saying, "Yeah! Fuck those smug Europeans! Sorry boys, if you didn't want us to stomp on your balls you should have grown some bigger ones!" Even from posters I respect, often the response was essentially, "Look, you've been weak and disrespectful, and if my party wants to stomp on your balls then you basically deserve it."

Ultimately your post seems to me to be saying that America deserves to subjugate the world forever, and if anyone decides they don't like it or they'd at least like to try being stamped on by a different boot, then that makes them an enemy and a threat to oh-so-benevolent American hegemony which needs to be dealt with. "The whole world benefits from U.S. lead global stability and this affirms our capacity," you say happily. Have you asked the world? In general, I think your position contains a serious Kafka trap where any serious attempt to defy American authority or defend against American hostility (like preparing nuclear weapons that could actually defend against an American attack, or seeking good relations with other powerful nations, or engaging in proxy economic or military activity, the last of which I do not endorse) is automatic proof of guilt indicating the need to subjugate or raze. Strong 'if you didn't resist, I wouldn't have to hurt you' vibes.

I feel confident saying that America could and would black-bag my democratically-elected prat Prime Minister if they felt like it and the response from the aforementioned contingent would be the same as it was to Gaza, Denmark and Iran. They, and the US government, seem to feel that the problem with Iraq and Afghanistan wasn't that they killed vast numbers of innocent people and turned whole nations into warlord-infested torture deserts for nothing, but that America was mildly inconvenienced while doing so.

TLDR: Apologies for being a little heated. I think our positions and priors are too different for us to viscerally appreciate each others' positions, but

a lot of people are actively cheering for America to lose and to support Iran, a country that is recently accused of killing tens of thousands of its own population and actively, joyfully supports global terrorism.

Likewise the U.S. isn't an amazing hegemon, but people cheering for China or Russia to take over?

please consider what it might say about America's recent behaviour if it causes sensible people feel even an ounce of warmth towards Iran (whose government is as awful as you say). Likewise, that the People's Republic of China is looking sensible and level-headed. I hope that this is America's 'wolf warrior' moment and the bloodlust will recede and America will realise that other people's opinions matter at least a little bit and retrench, but I'm not confident.

Likewise, a few months ago, when Trump suddenly decided that he wanted Greenland, the sovereign territory of an ally and perhaps the least woke country in Western Europe

But see this attitude is part of the problem. Trump's interest in Greenland is not irrational or sudden. It's strictly transactional. It could be arranged easily. There is no special reason why Denmark has to have it, it doesn't form a core part of the Danish identity or state. It's some land they technically own. And instead of being willing to deal at all or even producing good reasons why the deal should not be done, everyone says, "it's our sovereign territory!" Well, yeah, can we do a deal about it? "It's ours! Not yours! You can't have it!"

There has been a total refusal to understand America's motivations as anything except some kind of ur-bully instinct. Now in the spirit of good will and good discussion, sure, I can admit that Trump's tone becomes hostile and threatening. But this is only because Denmark and Europe refuse to negotiate in the first place. Refuse to even consider it. What threat does it pose to Denmark to make a deal? It's their "sovereign territory"? That's not a good reason actually, that's declaring a priori some kind of status quo as an inviolable metaphysical truth. It doesn't actually violate the dignity of the Danish people to propose swapping some land. It's a kind of TDS, of a kind with when Trump warned the Germans of their dependence on Russian gas and they laughed at him.

Europe wants to act as though America is totally irrational but it doesn't seem as though Europe is rational either. This is why, when you say, "please consider what it might say about America's recent behavior," nobody is interested. People support a theocratic regime over Trump because they think Trump is mean? They want Iran to win and cripple the global energy market so Trump suffers a loss? That's not rational. It's not the product of a rational mind. Irrational people are not going to prod us to introspect, except maybe to consider if we need to change our behavior to avoid their erratic behavior.

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Okay I think I understand a little bit more about where you are coming from and importantly I think the way you wrote makes me thing you are more worried and fearful than certain which means I do think we can talk, especially because I don't think we are as far apart as you fear.

I think everyone needs to keep two things in mind:

-Trump (and Western values) have been the recipient of an immense smear campaign for years and years. This is coming from inside the house in the form of the media, academics and so on and outside the house as a specific way used by the enemies of the West (including Iran and Russia) to destabilize us. It works. If you are still posting here you are probably heterodox and free thinking and resistant to these tactics but being buried under lies, exaggeration, misrepresentation and fear mongering for decades is going to stick at least a little bit.

-The tremendous amount of recent success of American/Western culture recently has allowed us to have (as embarrassing as it is to say it) a children's view policy and politics. Of course importing an endless stream of foreigners is going to change a country. No, it's ridiculous that 6 dead servicemen is going be painted as a reason that the war should end. I've seen more dead people today at my day job.

Likewise dealing with Iran is going to suck but it's going to happen at some point. Yes something was always going to happen to fracture US/Euro alliance if they continued using the U.S. as a pay pig. The anti-Trump memeplex creates a really potent way for people to dismiss and ignore hard problems and conversations.

Two address two of your specifics: Greenland. We know how Trump talks and negotiates now, he's been around for years. It helps Euro politicians if they handle it in the way they did, but it's important for the free thinking public to recognize what Trump is and how he works and how their politicians are trying to use that.

America isn't a perfect hegemon, but it's so comically more in line with Western values that people reaching for China and Russia really need to stop and think about how much exaggeration is happening. People are out there saying that U.S. is worse than Iran because of Pretti. This is just not reality. Being pissed by Trump's low class presentation style doesn't justify this much of divorce from reality.

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I went off Israel in a big way after Oct 7 when the biggest contingent of pro-Israelis on this site started just outright saying, 'look, it's time to exterminate the Palestinians now'

This did not happen, I was there.

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Trump suddenly decided that he wanted Greenland, the sovereign territory of an ally

This situation is a bit more nuanced than that, I think. Indulge me, for just a second, if you would.

I'm not going to argue that Trump's rhetoric on this has been good (in fact, possibly it's been counterproductive) in part because fact-checking everything he's ever said would be extremely tedious, but I am given to understand that he ruled out actually attacking and seizing Greenland at some point. Great. But it seems pretty clear to me that he didn't wake up one morning and decide "ooh I want Greenland" for no reason.

The truth is that the US has wanted to acquire Greenland for a long time (the US has kicked the idea around since the mid-1800s). During World War 2, the US actually invaded Greenland, actually took control of the island, and then when Denmark asked the United States to leave after the war was over, we refused, the US being, apparently, convinced that Greenland was important to its security heading into the Cold War. The way NATO fell together smoothed things over, and the US continued to maintain bases there (although it still kicked around the idea of purchasing the island).

So we found a tenable status quo that rested on cooperation. What could have changed since the Cold War to make the US interested in owning Greenland again?

The answer is that in 2008 Greenland held a referendum on self-governance, which Denmark agreed to honor. A 2009 law guaranteed Greenland the right to leave altogether, if they so chose, and in fact that's the direction Greenland is currently headed in.

Now, personally, I agree with this course of action by Denmark, as I am generally for lower levels of self-governance. (Also, Denmark seems to have treated the natives pretty badly, apparently running an illegal and unethical contraception campaign until fairly recently with the goal of reducing their population.)

But geopolitically if there's any chance that Greenland actually leaves Denmark, it throws into question the currently existing security arrangement! Imagine if Poland agreed to let Suwalki hold an independence referendum: maybe this is a good thing on principle, but the Baltic states would go nuts and understandably so. I wouldn't go so far as to say that this is a "jerk move" necessarily but if access to Greenland is actually important for US/NATO security and Greenland wants to leave Denmark, it's pretty sensible for the US to want to acquire Greenland.

I think the best solution here for all parties is probably a Compact of Free Association between Greenland and the United States, and to the degree that Trump's rhetoric has made that less likely, I am inclined to think it is bad, and to the degree that Trump's rhetoric has made it more likely, maybe it's actually good.

"when these are done are we'll kill you all with these weapons."

Kind of a big assumption here. Are you confident that Iran, if they developed both nuclear weapons and some form of nuclear triad to be enable to credibly threaten retaliation against a first-strike, would then immediately use these new nukes to commit suicide by triggering MAD?

North Korea talks an absurd amount of shit, has nukes, and has never used them. India and Pakistan enjoy a little slap & tickle now and again and yet don't go nuclear.

You really, actually, genuinely think that the people in charge of Iran, and all the people who are involved in the functioning of a nuclear triad/delivery systems/C&C/etc are all down to, what, land a few nukes on Israeli soil (best case) and then get promptly glassed by H bombs? That seems realistic to you?

Iran is significantly more likely to intentionally try and start a global nuclear than the other powers - they are a religious theocracy that acts on religious impulses and is engaged in low tempo warfare (through proxies if nothing else).

That's not the problem though.

Imagine Iran arms itself and then takes control of Hormuz and says "don't intervene" with a nuclear backstop, or attacks Israel (or anyone else in the region). Or does what it is doing right now, with a stark reduction in response options because they say they'll nuke Riyadh if displeased. Temperamentally the Iranian regime is far more likely to engage in is dysregulated instability inducing activity than most regimes because of historical and religious factors. Add nukes into the mix and things get way worse.

What if they finish going through economic instability, Balkanize, and then one of the successor states sells to the highest bidder or loses track of it?

Hell, what if they just give to a proxy group or some other terrorist organization.

You can't model Iran like other powers, a large portion of the state believes what they are saying on the religious front. North Korea is trying to semi-quietly maintain its own existence. India is a real country with real country interests. Pakistan is complicated, but looks nothing like Iran.

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... man, why can't the executive just say that. If this is a considered decision to embroil ourselves in a shitshow because the alternative is worse, that's understandable. What worries me is when the Trump admin doesn't show signs of awareness that it's going to be a shitshow.

Or maybe Trump posted something coherently explaining the reasoning on Truth Social and I just missed it.

I mean have you seen this admin communicate with the public, like in general?

The usual reasons.

"We are doing this now because someone has to do it eventually and I'm left holding the bag and not a coward." Not inspiring.

"Personally, I hate watching civilians die." Not his vibe - and a huge leverage point with the school bombing.

"Complicated rambling about missile and drone production rates vs. interceptor costs" ...not going to work.

A different president might be able to convey the meaning without the specifics but Trump is not that guy, and critically the media and social environment is so relentlessly criticizing that he isn't incentivized in any way to try.

The vast majority of the military and the executive are not stupid, you see plenty of people saying "wow why did they do this when they don't have a plan for Hormuz" of course they have a plan. It's not a good one because there aren't any good plans, and doing nothing was a plan with risks of its own. The public does not tolerate those kinds of discussions though.

"We are doing this now because someone has to do it eventually and I'm left holding the bag and not a coward." Not inspiring.

I find this pretty inspiring, to be honest.

I think society would be better served with more people having a positive reaction to "we do this because it is hard and necessary, so that people in the future do not suffer."

We do not live in that society.

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This felt like what the justification for the Afghan withdrawal was and I loved it. I agree it's inspiring.

There are several justifications for this war that strike me as plausible, but I have no idea which ones (if any) are load-bearing among supporters e.g.

"Support" is a strong word. I've not sworn my life and honor to the Plannisters, but I've certainly learned not to bet against them. There's a lot of room for potential upside here, between positioning and maneuvering against China, the Middle East, knocking out a Russian ally, scaring and embarrassing our "allies", testing out next-gen combat, the fact that Iran just generally totally fucking sucks and has been calling for the death of my people for half a century, etc. It's not stuff I was chomping at the bit for, but I can see the logic, but it costs me little to wait and see if the administration can bring it home. If they can, it would be a hell of a coup, a lightsaber to a Gordian knot.

And maybe they can't. But frankly, there isn't a single politician in America I'd give better odds to than Donald Trump.

And on a more cold, personal level: I've been saying for decades that we should have just flattened every government building in Afghanistan and littered the country with pamphlets in every goat-herder language known to our anthropologists saying "If your government still offends us, we're just going to come back and do it again and again, so regularly you can plant your crops by the sight of our bombers smiting you. Repent or die. - Sincerely, the Fist of God (AKA: America)."

So I'm kind of curious to test the "can't do Islamic regime change by air power" hypothesis.

Much of my friend circle are Iranian, largely still enthusiastic but they've stopped posting "thank you Trump" every day. (I am mindfucked by their pro-Shah and pro-Israeli posts, which came out of left field after knowing them for ages.) But they don't discuss.

Zionist Twitter. Asmongold streams.

I think there are likely a bunch of us that are just casually in favour or on the fence. (While I'm worried about the fallout, I am always going to tilt in the direction of good old Team America deposing dictators.) Probably not too many people who are rabidly gung-ho about the whole thing and willing to argue it extensively, so they're going to lose out in wordcount to our local antisemites who will take any excuse to post multipage slop essays about the joooooooz. It's a shame, but the ideals of free speech do require a little bit of sacrifice.


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