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Notes -
It seems rather clear to me that in a war with China, every participant would lose. I am bearish on it staying contained, for one thing.
Any war involving Taiwan will involve striking military installations on China's soil. Typically, these things escalate. After Hegseth bombs the first Chinese school through carelessness, China may well feel that it is in their interest to make US civilians bleed as well, and unlike Iran they are probably able to do so. And if there ever was an administration which I do not trust to have the strategic savviness to avoid a war turning nuclear, it was the current one.
But even if a US-China war stayed confined, it would be devastating for the global economy. Between sanctions and blockades, most of the international trade in SE Asia would come to a halt. Neither side has much hope to push the other side out, never mind regime change. A war is unlikely to end with the US ceding their Asian interests to China, nor with the US invading Peking and installing a new regime. So both sides have far much more to lose than they have to win.
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