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Southern Blacks don't decide elections anymore. NC and GA have lost importance. Dems don't need either state to reach 270. PA, MI and WI are the most important swing states now.
On a longer timeline, the Democrat's dream of a multi-colored coalition is no more. They imagined an impregnable blue wall built off the increasing number of Hispanics, Browns, Blacks & Liberals. That illusion has been fully shattered, as many men of all persuasions have gone full MAGA.
If Pete gets through the primary, Blacks are still going to vote Democrat. Losing a small percent of black voters isn't disastrous. For these primaries, early voting states will matter a lot. I'd say Pete has a good shot with 3/4 regions.
It's not just southern blacks; it's blacks in general. While their percent is smaller in northern states, without their solid black support, the Democrats cease to be competitive. Look at Wisconsin, for instance: the 2020 margin for Biden was 0.5% . From wikipedia, the black population of Wisconsin is 6-7%. If they vote 85-95% Dem, and their voting population is roughly their state population, then their presence turns an R+5 victory into a D+0.5 victory. It's the same story in many other Northern states.
I was curious about how crucial the black electorate is democrats in the north. I asked ChatGPT to crunch the numbers on the non-black electorate in 2020, and it calculated that, in regards to the northern states:
That's 2020. In 2024, even states like Illinois start to be competitive without the black vote. While I don't think Pete is going to make blacks a republican or neutral constituency, blacks are a necessary part of any Democratic coalition if they hope to win.
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