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Notes -
Not that this makes it better for Trump, but the opposition doing very well in midterm elections (and in state elections) is very normal for US politics. E.g., the Obama administration got smacked so hard over the course of his presidency that when he left office, though still personally quite popular, the Democratic party was in a worse place nationally than it had been since 1920.
I'm not sure the bolded part follows. Yes, recently there's been a trend against presidents being able to hand off the office to their successor, but as you point out, that's also heavily-dependent upon candidate quality. For example, it's far from clear whether Trump would have been able to beat Joe Biden in 2016, had he decided to run. HRC was a uniquely polarizing candidate who also was personally bad at retail politics and took bad campaign strategy advice, and Trump only just squeaked out a victory over her in the first place. If the Dems nominate Newsome some other cypher, they may dig themselves the same hole this time as well.
Additionally, whatever happens in 2028, there will be major changes to the electoral map in 2030, with major blue states losing significant population share and thus electoral votes to red states, and possibly even changes like striking down of Section 2 of the VRA act, which as currently read compels the gerrymandering of Dem-locked "majority minority" districts across the otherwise solid-red deep south.
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