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Transnational Thursday for April 2, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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it might be worthwhile to put asterisks next to those numbers.

I definitely agree with this.

but I also don't think an estimate that puts the PLARF's stockpile below the IRGC

Well keep in mind I wasn't counting Chinese SRBMs, of which they have quite a lot, or ICBMs, (since those will, at least partially, be used for nuclear deterrence). I imagine most of the 135 ballistic missiles launched for training were SRBMs. I also think it's worth noting that Iran has, from what I understand, really pursued ballistic missiles - they haven't been able to produce a capable, modern navy or air force. Whereas China has been walking while chewing gum - ballistic missiles are just one item in their toolkit.

It's interesting too because the DoD traditionally hypes up threat capabilities.

However I am not sure if the culture in the post-GWOT DoD is the same as during the Cold War.