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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 13, 2023

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But why do we want that?

Possible reasons:

  1. The norm is good in and of itself, in that it prevents the chaos that would come if everyone felt they could reopen the books. Can you imagine what Africa would be like?

  2. The norm is pragmatically good for specific amoral US interests: the US has completed its own expansion into some of the best-placed territory in the world. It needs no more. Its enemies however, do. China is hemmed in by US allies and a secessionist region that it wants back both for ideological and geostrategic reasons. Russia clearly feels geographically insecure. The US would prefer they stay hemmed in or insecure and thus promulgating the norm and the perception of vigorous US reaction to attempts to revise borders has the potential to hobble its enemies and prevent their ascension.

  3. More like 2a: US allies with enemies with revanchist goals will be far more comforted by vigorous US action rather than inaction.

  4. More specific to this war than the general principle: Russia is a geopolitical rival and this weakens them. It arguably weakens the EU too (who buys Russian gas instead of more expensive US LNG?), while strengthening US leadership and thus leverage in Europe - the mythical "EU army" would have died when Germany admitted they wouldn't send tanks until the US did, if it had ever been alive in the first place. Everyone loses here from a protracted conflict, except the US. And maybe Ukraine, depending on how much you value self-determination.

The U.S. had a clear interest in preventing this when the spread of Communism was a real threat. But that's not the case any longer.

Assuming that communism alone and not the threat of Russian expansion was the concern, yes.

What interest do we have in guaranteeing the rights of the weak everywhere against the strong?

Does the US actually do that everywhere? I'd argue that the US tried it in, like, Mogadishu and then immediately lost taste for it at the first sign of trouble. So Clinton sat back and allowed the relatively "cheap" - in terms of prevention costs - Rwandan genocide.

Elsewhere the US actively guarantees the rights of the strong against the weak: e.g. in its support for regimes like Sisi's that literally shot unarmed protestors. Support for the Saudis who were bombing Yemen. I wouldn't say Iran is weak but US sanctions and support for Saudi Arabia and Israel alters the power balance in favor of the latter.

Is preservation of the status quo worth any amount of blood or treasure?

No, but it isn't the status quo, and it isn't US blood and treasure is cheap(er) - for the US.

This situation - for better or worse - is actively causing Russian power to degenerate. One way or another, I don't think we're headed back to the pre-2022 status quo. That's not necessarily a good thing - a desperate Russia is a dangerous Russia - but some planners are apparently willing to take the risk

I actually was of the opinion that Ukraine (hell, Europe's security issues more generally) wasn't a core concern of the US and it should focus on Taiwan since it would almost inevitably cave fast. But, if Russia is so incompetent as to bungle their invasion and are now trapped in a quagmire where US material can constantly bleed them...the logic changes.