Newcomb's problem splits people 50/50 in two camps, but the interesting thing is that both sides think the answer is obvious, and both sides think the other side is being silly. When I created a video criticizing Veritasium's video This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50 I received a ton of feedback particularly from the two-box camp and I simply could not convince anyone of why they were wrong.
That lead me to believe there must be some cognitive trap at play: someone must be not seeing something clearly. After a ton of debates, reading the literature, considering similar problems, discussing with LLMs, and just thinking deeply, I believe the core of the problem is recursive thinking.
Some people are fluent in recursivity, and for them certain kind of problems are obvious, but not everyone thinks the same way.
My essay touches Newcomb's problem, but the real focus is on why some people are predisposed to a certain choice, and I contend free will, determinism, and the sense of self, all affect Newcomb's problem and recursivity fluency predisposes certain views, in particular a proper understanding of embedded agency must predispose a particular (correct) choice.
I do not see how any of this is not obvious, but that's part of the problem, because that's likely due to my prior commitments not being the same as the ones of people who pick two-boxes. But I would like to hear if any two-boxer can point out any flaw in my reasoning.
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Notes -
Probably. But "there is no reasonable way for you to deduce how you would trick the oracle" is usually not explicitly spelled out in the original problem. It's just left unmentioned, and left as an exercise to the reader as to how or whether it might be tricked.
"A man comes at you with a knife and demands 1000 points from you. If you refuse he will try to stab you and if you get stabbed you lose 10,000 points. What do you do?" Is a question one might ask and argue and debate about. But it is not a logical math puzzle. It depends on empirical facts about the real world and the specific person being asked the question (how good are you at martial arts.) This is not interesting, the rules are not well-defined, and there is not a concrete definitive and objectively correct answer that is true independent of who is answer it.
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