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felipec  unbelief  4d ago (felipec.substack.com)   774 thread views

Recursive thinking, Newcomb's problem, and free will

felipec.substack.com

Newcomb's problem splits people 50/50 in two camps, but the interesting thing is that both sides think the answer is obvious, and both sides think the other side is being silly. When I created a video criticizing Veritasium's video This Paradox Splits Smart People 50/50 I received a ton of feedback particularly from the two-box camp and I simply could not convince anyone of why they were wrong.

That lead me to believe there must be some cognitive trap at play: someone must be not seeing something clearly. After a ton of debates, reading the literature, considering similar problems, discussing with LLMs, and just thinking deeply, I believe the core of the problem is recursive thinking.

Some people are fluent in recursivity, and for them certain kind of problems are obvious, but not everyone thinks the same way.

My essay touches Newcomb's problem, but the real focus is on why some people are predisposed to a certain choice, and I contend free will, determinism, and the sense of self, all affect Newcomb's problem and recursivity fluency predisposes certain views, in particular a proper understanding of embedded agency must predispose a particular (correct) choice.

I do not see how any of this is not obvious, but that's part of the problem, because that's likely due to my prior commitments not being the same as the ones of people who pick two-boxes. But I would like to hear if any two-boxer can point out any flaw in my reasoning.

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I think you misunderstood my comment. I'm also a 1-boxer and I don't think you need to believe in backwards-causation to be a 1-boxer. I just think a lot of 1-boxers do.

I'm just trying to explain why I think 2-boxers are 2-boxers. They think "backwards causation is wrong so 1-boxing is wrong". Actually backwards causation is wrong but it doesn't mean 1-boxing is wrong.

I just think a lot of 1-boxers do.

I don't think so. I haven't seen a single one-boxer make that claim.

I'm just trying to explain why I think 2-boxers are 2-boxers. They think "backwards causation is wrong so 1-boxing is wrong".

Yes, that is certainly one of the rationales of two-boxers. But that doesn't mean many one-boxers do actually believe that.

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