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Notes -
Yeah, actually predicting live humans is a whole another ballgame. It's a very important question if you're looking for something like digital uploads of live humans, but matters much less for the job replacement question with AIs. What matters for the human replacement question is being able to do economically valuable actions skillfully and purposefully. Many different people can learn to do these. If you need to run a waste disposal plant effectively, you don't specifically need John Smith from Glendale, Arizona to do it. If it's a managerial position, you don't need a person physically present even. The manager needs to have the ability, intent, and awareness to perform their job, but from there on they can then pretty much do it by closely monitoring how things are going and sending emails, and it's a job any reasonably intelligent adult human can learn to do in time.
The economic human replacement question isn't about humans being exchanged with drop-in androids who look indistinguishable from live humans. It's about possibly quite non-human AIs being nevertheless able to learn and do economically valued work cheaper and better than humans, and what humans will do now. Used to be that humans would learn some new job and do that when specific machines automated the old one, but if it's general-purpose AIs replacing jobs instead of special-purpose machines, with any new job you have the question of why not have AIs learn that job as well and start doing it cheaper and better than humans.
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