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The steelman is that the internal experience of puberty is supposed to be extremely unpleasant for trans people, and the later stages makes later transition much harder.
The 'very unpleasant' bit is more obvious for FtMs -- menses isn't fun for anyone and I'd assume it feels worse if the whole 'this is an alien thing rolling in my belly' sensation never goes away, breasts have obvious social impact and also just kinda suck from back pain and bras perspective to the point, and even in the modern day there's an absolute fuck-ton of social threat stuff a lot of young women suddenly get thrown at them. But the guy side isn't great, either: acne, cracking voice, more acne, your junk getting a mind of its own, and a lot of the things that make up for it for normal guys are actively unappealing for MtFs.
The transition bit is... the ugly paradox. Trans people really don't like to think about how it can be harder for some people to pass, no matter how much effort they put into it, but it's a thing, they know it's a thing, and there's a lot of tactical decision-making about how it's a thing. Both as a "I wish I had" moment, because a lot of trans activists only transitioned later in life, and because a there's a variety of pragmatic effects downstream of transition by physics and by law. The MtF who's six-foot-six, has a prominent Adam's apple, body hair everywhere, and enough upper arm strength to bench press a swimming team is going to have a lot more expensive, painful, longer-lasting surgical intervention just to pass to someone with poor gender recognition from thirty feet away. An FtM who has to get bras special-ordered and spent five years with the habits downstream of that isn't going to mode-switch into how cis guys act quickly, if ever.
The theory was that if someone's staying consistent in gender presentation for a year or two, you could be a lot more confident that they're not going to desist and get them to an age range where knowing consent is more realistic.
I think the trans movement badly over-corrected here, both in how early they started using puberty blockers (to the point where it made healthy life after transition more difficult), how long they used them, and by neglecting the amount of information people do pick up from early puberty. But while the former has a lot of problems downstream of bad practices by advocacy groups and active obfuscation by doctors of negative results, the latter is a more reasonable mistake. The numbers, even by social conservative expectations, had youth desistance just pretty damned rare. That was figmentary -- until 2020ish, prepuberty gender weirdness just wasn't be recorded much at all -- but it wasn't just hopes and dreams, either.
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