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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 22, 2026

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Alongside what everyone else has said about how you can reasonably arrive at this figure, I also want to point out that there's nothing unusual about this figure in the historiography of atrocities. Extrapolating from Rotherham, Telford, Rochdale etc is crude, but it's the same starting point that similar studies of covered-up atrocities had to work with. Demanding perfect precision at the outset, in a context where authorities are suppressing data, would mean never recognizing most historical atrocities.

To the extent the report makes a mistake, it's mistake is not showing it's calculations in greater detail and not giving a range. But most historians aren't statisticians and many quoted ranges are taken from taking the credible lower-bound figure given by one historian against the credible higher-bound figure given by another, not some statistical analysis of uncertainty.

There are to my knowledge only two serious pieces of scholarly work on the subject of Grooming Gangs. Peter McLoughlin's Easy Meat, and Rupert Lowe's report. To get anywhere into the ballpark at this early a stage is more than you could expect. To contrast with a work that was at a similarly early stage of Scholarship, consider Mark Twain's far more bombastic claim about the Congo Free State's atrocities from King Leopold's Soliloquy:

They go shuddering around, brooding over the reduction of that Congo population from 25,000,000 to 15,000,000 in the twenty years of my administration; then they burst out and call me "the King with Ten Million Murders on his Soul." They call me a "record." The most of them do not stop charging merely the 10,000,000 against me. No, they reflect that but for me the population, by natural increase would now be 30,000,000, so they charge another 5,000,000 against me and make my total death-harvest 15,000,000.

More recent scholarship leans towards 1.5 million, though given the poor record keeping a higher figure closer to Twain's claim cannot be ruled out.

As for the argument that Lowe is biased. Yes. He is. As was Mark Twain. You can contrast his bias against the bias of British Institutions, which until recently would have put the number of victims of "Pakistani Grooming Gangs" as 0 by denying the very concept.