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My understanding is that Islam does not guarantee salvation, even to Muslims, and that similarly non-Muslims do not necessarily go to eternal torment – which makes the game theory slightly more complex than this. I'd need to do more research into Islam to say this for sure, though, so take that with a grain of salt.
From what I understand most religions say that even people who do not believe in them will be treated differently in the afterlife based on whether or not they are virtuous, and most religions have a fairly similar idea of virtuous behavior. Based on that, I think the game theory suggests that living virtuously as a hedge is a good idea, but I am not sure I've ever seen anyone go down this rabbit hole (either in their personal life or from an abstract game theory perspective).
Surely it's actually fairly easy to determine that some religions are made up by humans...
I would agree with respect to the current dominant religions. A peaceful Buddhist and a peaceful Christian seem very similar. Even the ancient Greek and roman stoics seemed to preach a way of life that is mostly congruent with modern ideals. But Christianity has many extreme denominations, and some religions in the past demanded human sacrifice.
After a few generations it gets very muddy. Is wicca just something a charlatan made up in the 1800's? Many would disagree. Scientology has several members that are presumably true believers, and several cults have shown the ability to turn people from normies into true believers. So it is not as easy as it seems on the surface. In general, once a religion reaches a critical mass of people who believe in it, it becomes very difficult to dismiss out of hand.
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