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On this point, I don't think the main issue is about the tools or how easy they are to set up. There are too many academics running Discourse forum in default skin for it to be difficult to set up. I find the technical problem is twofold: Discourse and similar tools that have modern mobile-first look and feel tench have bad UX for serious discussion, but battle-tested forum software with good forum-discussion features looks old and is not mobile-friendly (if it has security patches). I suspect there may be root cause which is related to the mobile form factor vs typewriter form factor of the previous personal computing generation.
Anyway, I think you are on the right track on two important points. Reddit is worse because Reddit is people, not bots, and something important went missing when privately owned space of blogs and forums died. I'd just put social and network effects as the first primary reason. A social media monolith likes Facebook or Reddit or Discord won because literally everyone would be on their Discussion As A Service platform. Eventually every prospective forum admin who wishes to set up a niche discussion forum would be foolish not set their forum up in the most popular DAAS, as they can trust not only there will be enough people to populate it but all the relevant people are there. But because everyone is there, not just the people who the admin wants, another problem presented itself. Consequently, observe rise of the anti-FB, Discord ( discussion spaces are invite-only, and easier it is to find a discussion place, higher the chances that it is spiritually dead in bland noise of cacophony).
A second thought. I have an impression that many people who would have had inclination to participate in internet discussion for fun in the '00s or '10s have less time to do it. Either absolutely less time, because they are busy with jobs or other internet services, or relatively, because content by hobbyist will always be outcompeted by people who produce similar content professionally, full-time, for living. Exhibit A, see the modal career path of Youtube streamer you have heard about. One hears about streamers usually after they go pro for a reason. Exhibit B, see Substack. Why write posts for free if you are good enough writer to monetize on it?
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